Bundesliga 2025-2026: Ein Frankfurt vs Stuttgart Prediction - 16 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Ein Frankfurt

Home Team
41%
VS

Stuttgart

Away Team
34%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 27.3
Expected Spread: -0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 33 27 5 1 117 35 82 86
2 Dortmund 33 21 7 5 68 34 34 70
3 RB Leipzig 33 20 5 8 65 43 22 65
4 Stuttgart 33 18 7 8 69 47 22 61
5 Hoffenheim 33 18 7 8 65 48 17 61
6 Leverkusen 33 17 7 9 67 46 21 58
7 Freiburg 33 12 8 13 47 56 -9 44
8 Ein Frankfurt 33 11 10 12 59 63 -4 43
9 Augsburg 33 12 7 14 45 57 -12 43
10 Mainz 33 9 10 14 42 53 -11 37
11 Hamburg 33 9 10 14 39 53 -14 37
12 Union Berlin 33 9 9 15 40 58 -18 36
13 M'gladbach 33 8 11 14 38 53 -15 35
14 FC Koln 33 7 11 15 48 58 -10 32
15 Werder Bremen 33 8 8 17 37 58 -21 32
16 Wolfsburg 33 6 8 19 42 68 -26 26
17 Heidenheim 33 6 8 19 41 70 -29 26
18 St Pauli 33 6 8 19 28 57 -29 26

Recent Trends

Ein Frankfurt L L D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 2 - 1)

Stuttgart W D D L W

  • Last Match: W vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 4 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ein Frankfurt

xG (avg) 1.39
xGA (avg) 1.31
Clean Sheets 0

Stuttgart

xG (avg) 2.02
xGA (avg) 3.02
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Eintracht Frankfurt are slight favourites at home, with a 41.0% chance of victory against Stuttgart’s 34.0%, and the model leaning towards a home win despite the tight margins. The over 2.5 prediction is strong at 59.0%, suggesting an open game between the 8th‑placed hosts (43 points) and 4th‑placed Stuttgart (61 points), who are chasing Champions League football.

Match Analysis

Frankfurt come into this on a three‑match winless run: narrow defeats to Dortmund (2-3) and Hamburg (1-2) followed by a 1-1 draw at Augsburg. They’ve been competitive in all three, creating chances (19 shots in Augsburg, 8-9 shots vs Hamburg) but failing to turn dominance into wins, and crucially they haven’t kept a single clean sheet in their last five games. Their recent averages – 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, with xG for at 1.392 and against at 1.306 – paint the picture of a balanced but slightly underperforming side that tends to be involved in tight contests. Stuttgart, in contrast, are in the thick of the top‑four battle and arriving with confidence after a 3-1 home win over Leverkusen and back‑to‑back draws against Hoffenheim (3-3) and Werder Bremen (1-1). They’ve been explosive going forward, averaging 3.0 goals scored over their last five matches, but also leaking 2.8 per game with only one clean sheet in that period. Their xG numbers – 2.018 for and a high 3.018 against – underline a chaotic style: they create plenty, but also give up a lot of chances, which should suit an attack‑minded Frankfurt at home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ein Frankfurt
Goals in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 59.0% looks well backed by recent form. Two of Frankfurt’s last three matches went under 2.5 goals (1-2 vs Hamburg, 1-1 vs Augsburg), but the 2-3 loss at Dortmund showed their vulnerability in more open games. Stuttgart, meanwhile, have seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (3-1 vs Leverkusen, 3-3 at Hoffenheim), with only the 1-1 vs Bremen falling under 2.5. With Frankfurt averaging 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, and Stuttgart at 3.0 scored and 2.8 conceded, backed by healthy xG at both ends, an attacking, chance‑rich encounter is the likeliest scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ein Frankfurt
Corners in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s corners prediction sits at 9.58 total, which fits the recent pattern of both sides. Frankfurt’s last three have produced 8, 13 and 16 corners respectively, with the hosts often forcing set‑plays when chasing games. Stuttgart’s last three have seen 13, 9 and 16 corners, reflecting a front‑foot approach that generates plenty of wide attacking situations. With both teams inclined to push on rather than sit deep, the predicted corners tally around the 9–10 mark feels a fair expectation.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ein Frankfurt
Shots in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total of 27.26 is in line with both clubs’ recent numbers. Frankfurt’s last three matches featured combined shot counts of 22 (Dortmund), 17 (Hamburg) and a high 36 (Augsburg), suggesting they can be involved in real shot‑trading battles. Stuttgart’s last three saw 26 (Leverkusen), 36 (Hoffenheim) and 29 (Werder Bremen), again highlighting open games. This shots prediction matches their xG profiles: both sides create enough volume in and around the box to justify a brisk tempo in front of goal.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Ein Frankfurt wins by X goals. Negative = Stuttgart wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Ein Frankfurt vs Stuttgart with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Ein Frankfurt vs Stuttgart
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is finely poised at -0.1 (home minus away), meaning the model actually rates Stuttgart fractionally stronger on performance, even though the probability edge lies with Frankfurt at home. Frankfurt’s recent three‑game goal difference is -2 (4 scored, 6 conceded), while Stuttgart are at +2 over the same span (7 scored, 5 conceded), reflecting the visitors’ sharper attack. Combined with their 4th‑place standing and superior scoring record, the expected spread underlines just how small the margin is between a home win, an away steal, or a draw.

Final Prediction

Frankfurt’s edge comes mainly from home advantage and a solid underlying balance between goals scored and conceded, even if results haven’t fully followed. Stuttgart, however, bring greater attacking firepower and top‑four urgency. The key factor to watch will be how Frankfurt’s defence copes with Stuttgart’s high‑scoring, high‑risk approach; if the visitors open the game up, this could quickly turn into another goal‑heavy Bundesliga thriller.

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