Bundesliga 2025-2026: Freiburg vs Bayern Munich Prediction - 4 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Freiburg

Home Team
18%
VS

Bayern Munich

Away Team
65%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 8.8
Expected Shots: 27.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 27 22 4 1 97 25 72 70
2 Dortmund 27 18 7 2 58 28 30 61
3 Stuttgart 27 16 5 6 56 36 20 53
4 RB Leipzig 27 15 5 7 53 35 18 50
5 Hoffenheim 27 15 5 7 54 39 15 50
6 Leverkusen 27 13 7 7 52 36 16 46
7 Ein Frankfurt 27 10 8 9 50 51 -1 38
8 Freiburg 27 10 7 10 39 44 -5 37
9 Union Berlin 27 8 7 12 31 46 -15 31
10 Augsburg 27 9 4 14 33 50 -17 31
11 Mainz 27 7 9 11 33 42 -9 30
12 Hamburg 27 7 9 11 31 40 -9 30
13 M'gladbach 27 7 8 12 33 46 -13 29
14 Werder Bremen 27 7 7 13 30 47 -17 28
15 FC Koln 27 6 8 13 38 47 -9 26
16 St Pauli 27 6 6 15 24 44 -20 24
17 Wolfsburg 27 5 6 16 35 57 -22 21
18 Heidenheim 27 3 6 18 27 61 -34 15

Recent Trends

Freiburg W L D L W

  • Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 2 - 1)

Bayern Munich W D W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Dortmund (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Freiburg

xG (avg) 1.63
xGA (avg) 1.41
Clean Sheets 0

Bayern Munich

xG (avg) 2.40
xGA (avg) 2.07
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Bayern Munich are clear favourites here, with a 65.0% probability of taking all three points away at eighth‑placed Freiburg, who have just an 18.0% chance of an upset. League leaders Bayern sit top with 70 points and a huge +72 goal difference, and the numbers point towards them extending that against mid‑table opposition. The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction at 57.0%, suggesting a game with goals rather than a cagey affair.

Match Analysis

Freiburg come into this on a mixed run. A spirited 2-1 away win at St Pauli showed their resilience, while the 3-3 home draw with Leverkusen underlined their ability to trade punches with stronger sides, creating 21 shots and 5 corners. However, the 0-1 home defeat to Union Berlin – despite 19 shots and 6 corners – exposed a recurring issue: turning pressure into goals. Over their last five games, they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.63 expected goals, but also concede 1.2 goals from 1.406 xG and have not kept a single clean sheet in that stretch. Bayern, by contrast, look relentless going forward. A 4-0 home demolition of Union Berlin featured 31 shots and 12 corners, and the 4-1 win over M’gladbach again showed their ability to overwhelm teams with 18 shots and 7 corners. Even in the 1-1 draw at Leverkusen, where they were second best on the shot count (11-21), they still found a way to score. Across their last five, Bayern average 2.8 goals scored from 2.396 xG and concede 1.2 from 2.068 xG, suggesting they do allow chances but usually outgun opponents. That attacking edge, combined with Freiburg’s lack of recent clean sheets, tilts the balance strongly towards the champions.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Freiburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction at 57.0% is backed up by recent scorelines. Two of Freiburg’s last three league games went over 2.5 goals (3-3 vs Leverkusen, 2-1 vs St Pauli), with only the 0-1 vs Union falling under. For Bayern, two of their last three also went over 2.5 (4-0 vs Union Berlin, 4-1 vs M’gladbach), with just the 1-1 at Leverkusen finishing under. With Freiburg averaging 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, and Bayern at 2.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, supported by healthy xG at both ends, another high‑scoring contest looks more likely than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Freiburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match is 8.81, pointing towards a moderate number of set‑pieces rather than a corner-fest. Freiburg’s last three produced 5, 8 and 7 total corners respectively, reflecting a side that attacks but not constantly from wide overloads. Bayern’s games tend to fluctuate: 12-1 in corners against Union Berlin, 7-1 against M’gladbach, but only 1-4 at Leverkusen. With Bayern likely to dominate territory and Freiburg breaking when they can, the corners prediction around nine overall fits two teams whose attacking styles do generate pressure but not ceaseless wing bombardment every week.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Freiburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 27.63 suggests a lively game in and around both boxes. Freiburg’s recent matches have seen shot totals of 27 (vs St Pauli), 28 (vs Union Berlin) and 38 (vs Leverkusen), underlining that their games are rarely quiet. Bayern’s last three produced 36 shots vs Union Berlin, 32 at Leverkusen and 28 vs M’gladbach, consistent with their strong attacking numbers and xG of 2.396 per match. That attacking intent, combined with Freiburg’s willingness to trade chances, supports a shots prediction close to 28 total efforts.

Final Prediction

Bayern Munich’s superior firepower, league-leading form and recent scoring record give them a clear edge over a Freiburg side that competes well but struggles for clean sheets. The key factor to watch will be whether Freiburg can convert their chances efficiently enough to stay with Bayern’s attack; if not, the visitors’ relentless shot volume and quality in the final third should decide the contest.

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