Bundesliga 2025-2026: Freiburg vs Heidenheim Prediction - 19 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Freiburg

Home Team
59%
VS

Heidenheim

Away Team
20%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 27.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 29 24 4 1 105 27 78 76
2 Dortmund 29 19 7 3 60 29 31 64
3 Stuttgart 29 17 5 7 60 38 22 56
4 RB Leipzig 29 17 5 7 56 36 20 56
5 Leverkusen 29 15 7 7 59 39 20 52
6 Hoffenheim 29 15 6 8 57 43 14 51
7 Ein Frankfurt 29 11 9 9 54 54 0 42
8 Freiburg 29 11 7 11 42 47 -5 40
9 Mainz 29 8 9 12 35 44 -9 33
10 Augsburg 29 9 6 14 36 53 -17 33
11 Union Berlin 29 8 8 13 33 50 -17 32
12 Hamburg 29 7 10 12 32 45 -13 31
13 FC Koln 29 7 9 13 43 50 -7 30
14 M'gladbach 29 7 9 13 35 49 -14 30
15 Werder Bremen 29 7 7 15 32 52 -20 28
16 St Pauli 29 6 7 16 25 50 -25 25
17 Wolfsburg 29 5 6 18 39 65 -26 21
18 Heidenheim 29 4 7 18 32 64 -32 19

Recent Trends

Freiburg W L W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 3)

Heidenheim W D D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 2 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Freiburg

xG (avg) 1.53
xGA (avg) 1.57
Clean Sheets 1

Heidenheim

xG (avg) 1.29
xGA (avg) 2.26
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Freiburg are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 59.0% chance of victory against bottom‑placed Heidenheim, who are given just a 20.0% chance, the same as the draw. The model points towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction (49.0% for under) despite a 55.0% chance that both teams get on the scoresheet. Freiburg come into this from 8th in the Bundesliga on 40 points, while Heidenheim sit 18th with 19 points and are staring at relegation.

Match Analysis

Freiburg’s recent form has been solid if not spectacular: two wins from their last three, including away victories at Mainz (1-0) and St Pauli (2-1), plus a narrow 3-2 home defeat to Bayern Munich. Those results underline a side that can grind out tight games but is still susceptible defensively, with five goals conceded in that short run. Their last five-match averages of 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, backed by xG figures of 1.526 for and 1.566 against, paint the picture of a balanced, mid-table team whose performances roughly match their results. Heidenheim’s situation is far more precarious, but their last three outings hint at a side fighting hard: a 3-1 home win over Union Berlin and back-to-back high-scoring draws against M’gladbach (2-2 away) and Leverkusen (3-3 at home). That’s eight goals scored in three matches, a stark contrast to their broader five-game average of just 0.8 goals per game. At the back they remain fragile, conceding 1.8 goals per game over the last five and posting a worrying 2.264 xG against, with no clean sheets in that stretch. Freiburg’s more stable underlying numbers, plus home advantage, give them a clear edge.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Freiburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Heidenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards under 2.5 with a 49.0% probability, even though the margin over the over 2.5 prediction is slim. Freiburg’s last three games have produced totals of 1, 5 and 3 goals – so 2 out of 3 have gone over 2.5. Heidenheim’s recent matches have all been goal-heavy, with totals of 4, 4 and 6, meaning 3 out of 3 over 2.5. However, the five-game averages (Freiburg at 1.6 scored/1.6 conceded, Heidenheim at 0.8 scored/1.8 conceded) and the similar xG profiles suggest that, on balance, a more cautious, lower-scoring battle is slightly more likely than another shootout.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Freiburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Heidenheim
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderate total, with 9.08 expected total corners in this match. Freiburg’s last three games have seen combined corner counts of 10 (4-6 vs Mainz), 13 (5-8 vs Bayern) and 5 (2-3 vs St Pauli), showing big variation depending on game state. Heidenheim’s matches have been slightly quieter in this regard, with 8 (3-5 vs Union Berlin), 5 (3-2 vs M’gladbach) and 7 (2-5 vs Leverkusen). Freiburg’s willingness to attack at home and Heidenheim’s need to chase points should keep the predicted corners figure close to that nine-corner mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Freiburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Heidenheim
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.99, hinting at a reasonably open contest without turning into a shooting gallery. Freiburg’s recent shot counts read 8, 13 and 15 taken, against 10, 21 and 12 faced – suggesting they can both create and concede chances in volume, especially against stronger opposition. Heidenheim have recorded 7, 15 and 9 shots themselves, while allowing 10, 15 and 14, which lines up with their higher xG against. This shots prediction fits with Freiburg’s slightly better attacking xG and Heidenheim’s porous defence, likely producing enough attempts without becoming chaotic.

Final Prediction

Freiburg’s stronger position in the table, more consistent recent results and superior defensive metrics make them deserved favourites at home. Heidenheim’s surge in goals over the last three games keeps them dangerous, but their inability to keep clean sheets remains a major concern. The key factor to watch will be how Freiburg manage Heidenheim’s direct attacking spells; if they control those moments, their quality and balance should see them over the line.

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