Bundesliga 2025-2026: Freiburg vs Leverkusen Prediction - 7 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Freiburg

Home Team
16%
VS

Leverkusen

Away Team
68%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 25.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 24 20 3 1 88 23 65 63
2 Dortmund 24 15 7 2 51 25 26 52
3 Hoffenheim 24 14 4 6 49 31 18 46
4 Stuttgart 24 14 4 6 48 32 16 46
5 RB Leipzig 24 13 5 6 46 33 13 44
6 Leverkusen 24 13 4 7 45 29 16 43
7 Ein Frankfurt 24 9 7 8 48 49 -1 34
8 Freiburg 24 9 6 9 34 39 -5 33
9 Augsburg 24 9 4 11 30 41 -11 31
10 Union Berlin 24 7 7 10 29 38 -9 28
11 Hamburg 24 6 8 10 26 35 -9 26
12 M'gladbach 24 6 7 11 27 39 -12 25
13 FC Koln 24 6 6 12 33 41 -8 24
14 Mainz 24 5 8 11 27 39 -12 23
15 St Pauli 24 6 5 13 23 40 -17 23
16 Werder Bremen 24 5 7 12 25 44 -19 22
17 Wolfsburg 24 5 5 14 33 53 -20 20
18 Heidenheim 24 3 5 16 22 53 -31 14

Recent Trends

Freiburg L W L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 1)

Leverkusen W D L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Freiburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.65
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.23
# Clean Sheets: 1

Leverkusen

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.48
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.25
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Leverkusen are favoured to take all three points in Freiburg, with a 68.0% probability of an away win against just 16.0% for the hosts and 15.0% for the draw. The model points to a match with goals, backing an over 2.5 prediction at 52.0% likelihood. In the table, Leverkusen sit 6th on 43 points, chasing the Champions League places, while Freiburg are just behind them in 8th with 33 points.

Match Analysis

Freiburg’s last three outings have been a mixed bag: a solid 2-1 home win over M’gladbach sandwiched between heavy away defeats at Hoffenheim (0-3) and Eintracht Frankfurt (0-2). Those losses underline a vulnerability on the road, but at home they still find ways to be competitive, even when they are second best on shots as they were against M’gladbach (10-12). Over their last five games, Freiburg actually profile as balanced: 1.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded on average, with xG figures (1.654 for, 1.232 against) suggesting they generally create enough and limit opponents to manageable chances. Leverkusen arrive with steadier form, even if not spectacular. A narrow 1-0 away win in Hamburg, a 1-1 home draw with Mainz and a 0-1 defeat at Union Berlin all followed a similar pattern: Leverkusen regularly out-shoot their opponents (14-10, 12-8, 16-8) and control territory, but don’t always convert that dominance into goals. Their last five matches show 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded on average, backed by decent underlying numbers (1.484 xG for, 1.254 xG against) and two clean sheets, which point to a well-organised side that usually has the better chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Freiburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction edges it here with a 52.0% probability, and the goal/BTTS angle is also favoured at 54.0%. Two of Freiburg’s last three matches went under 2.5 goals (0-2 vs Eintracht, 0-3 vs Hoffenheim) and one went over (2-1 vs M’gladbach), while all three of Leverkusen’s recent games were under 2.5 (1-0, 1-1, 0-1). However, Freiburg’s recent average of 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, plus Leverkusen’s 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded, combined with both sides’ xG profiles, support the idea that this could tip just over the 2.5 line if finishing improves.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Freiburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match is 9.2, pointing to a medium-to-busy afternoon from set plays. Freiburg’s last three games produced corner counts of 6-5, 3-3 and 6-6, underlining that their matches often sit around that 9–12 range. Leverkusen, meanwhile, have seen 7-2, 6-2 and 5-4, reflecting a team that pushes high and forces opponents back, boosting the corners prediction as they pin teams into their own box.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Freiburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 25.02, which fits well with both teams’ recent patterns. Freiburg’s last three games saw them take 4, 10 and 13 shots while allowing 15, 12 and 25, suggesting they can be dragged into high-volume games, especially against strong attacking sides. Leverkusen’s 14, 12 and 16 shots in their last three, combined with xG averages of 1.484 for and 1.254 against, support a shots prediction in the mid-20s overall, with the visitors likely to edge the shot count.

Final Prediction

Leverkusen’s edge comes from their more consistent control of games: they out-shoot opponents regularly, keep things tight at the back, and have stronger recent underlying numbers than Freiburg. If they can finally align their chance creation with sharper finishing, their superior attacking volume should tell. A key factor to watch will be how Freiburg cope with Leverkusen’s pressure in wide areas, which could decide both the result and the flow of chances.

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