Bundesliga 2025-2026: Freiburg vs M'gladbach Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Freiburg

Home Team
65%
VS

M'gladbach

Away Team
17%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 27.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 22 18 3 1 82 19 63 57
2 Dortmund 22 15 6 1 47 20 27 51
3 Hoffenheim 22 14 3 5 47 28 19 45
4 Stuttgart 22 13 3 6 41 29 12 42
5 RB Leipzig 22 12 4 6 42 30 12 40
6 Leverkusen 21 12 3 6 43 27 16 39
7 Ein Frankfurt 22 8 7 7 44 46 -2 31
8 Freiburg 22 8 6 8 32 36 -4 30
9 Hamburg 21 6 7 8 24 31 -7 25
10 Union Berlin 22 6 7 9 28 37 -9 25
11 Augsburg 22 7 4 11 25 39 -14 25
12 FC Koln 22 6 5 11 31 37 -6 23
13 M'gladbach 22 5 7 10 25 37 -12 22
14 Mainz 22 5 6 11 25 37 -12 21
15 Wolfsburg 22 5 5 12 31 46 -15 20
16 Werder Bremen 22 4 7 11 22 42 -20 19
17 St Pauli 22 4 5 13 20 39 -19 17
18 Heidenheim 22 3 4 15 19 48 -29 13

Recent Trends

Freiburg L W L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 2)

M'gladbach L D D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Hamburg (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Freiburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.23
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.04
# Clean Sheets: 1

M'gladbach

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.78
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.05
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Freiburg are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 65.0% probability of victory against a struggling M’gladbach side that has just a 17.0% chance, while the draw sits at 18.0%. The hosts come in 8th in the Bundesliga table with 30 points, looking up towards the European places, whereas M’gladbach are 13th on 22 points and still too close to the relegation scrap for comfort. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 54.0% and both teams backed to score (goal probability 52.0%.

Match Analysis

Freiburg’s last three results (L–W–L) don’t look spectacular on paper, but context matters. They edged Werder Bremen 1–0 at home and were competitive in narrow defeats away to Stuttgart (0–1) and at high-flying Hoffenheim despite the 0–3 scoreline. Even when losing, they’ve been able to generate chances: 13 shots at Hoffenheim and 11 at Stuttgart, plus a consistently strong underlying attacking output over the last five games – averaging 2.0 goals scored and 2.228 expected goals per match. M’gladbach, by contrast, are stuck in a poor run with two draws and a defeat from their last three: 1–1 away at Werder, 1–1 at home to Leverkusen and a heavy 0–3 loss in Frankfurt. The real concern is at both ends of the pitch: just 0.4 goals scored on average in their last five games and 2.2 conceded, with xG numbers (0.784 for, 2.054 against) backing up the storyline of a side creating too little and giving up too much. Even when they’ve had territory and shots – like 20 attempts and 8 corners in Frankfurt – they’ve lacked cutting edge and defensive solidity.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Freiburg
Goals in last 5 matches
M'gladbach
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction at 54.0%, and the recent scorelines give a mixed but slightly supportive picture. Two of Freiburg’s last three games stayed under 2.5 (1–0 vs Werder, 0–1 at Stuttgart), with only the 0–3 at Hoffenheim going over. For M’gladbach, two of their last three finished under 2.5 (both 1–1 draws) and one went over (0–3 in Frankfurt). However, Freiburg’s averages of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded in their last five, combined with strong attacking xG, suggest that if this opens up, it’s more likely because the home side impose themselves.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Freiburg
Corners in last 5 matches
M'gladbach
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.23, which fits what we’ve seen from both teams lately. Freiburg’s last three matches produced corner counts of 6–6, 4–8 and 2–6, regularly hitting or passing the 9–corner mark as they often soak up pressure and then break. M’gladbach’s last three (8–2, 2–2, 3–7) also point to a clash where both sides can generate and concede corners. This corners prediction suits a game where Freiburg’s more proactive home approach and M’gladbach’s need to counter could keep the flanks busy and sustain a steady flow of predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Freiburg
Shots in last 5 matches
M'gladbach
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 27.8, and recent numbers make that plausible. Freiburg have faced high shot counts (25, 17, 18) while still getting off a respectable 13, 7 and 11 of their own, in line with their strong xG of 2.228 per game. M’gladbach have attempted 20, 9 and 7 shots in their last three and conceded 12, 10 and 18, so a shots prediction around the high 20s fits a pattern of open games where they allow plenty of efforts on goal. With Freiburg’s superior attacking efficiency, those expected shots are more likely to translate into goals for the hosts.

Final Prediction

Freiburg’s edge comes from their far better recent attacking metrics and defensive record, combined with home advantage and M’gladbach’s severe drop-off in both goal output and defensive resilience. If Christian Streich’s side can maintain their current xG levels, the probabilities firmly back them to convert that into a home win. A key factor to watch will be whether M’gladbach can withstand Freiburg’s pressure without collapsing, especially once the shot and corner counts start to climb.

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