Bundesliga 2025-2026: Freiburg vs Union Berlin Prediction - 15 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Freiburg

Home Team
65%
VS

Union Berlin

Away Team
17%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 26.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 25 21 3 1 92 24 68 66
2 Dortmund 25 16 7 2 53 26 27 55
3 Hoffenheim 25 15 4 6 53 33 20 49
4 Stuttgart 25 14 5 6 50 34 16 47
5 RB Leipzig 25 14 5 6 48 34 14 47
6 Leverkusen 25 13 5 7 48 32 16 44
7 Ein Frankfurt 25 9 8 8 48 49 -1 35
8 Freiburg 25 9 7 9 37 42 -5 34
9 Augsburg 25 9 4 12 31 43 -12 31
10 Hamburg 25 7 8 10 28 36 -8 29
11 Union Berlin 25 7 7 11 30 42 -12 28
12 M'gladbach 25 6 7 12 28 43 -15 25
13 Werder Bremen 25 6 7 12 29 45 -16 25
14 FC Koln 25 6 6 13 34 43 -9 24
15 Mainz 25 5 9 11 29 41 -12 24
16 St Pauli 25 6 6 13 23 40 -17 24
17 Wolfsburg 25 5 5 15 34 55 -21 20
18 Heidenheim 25 3 5 17 24 57 -33 14

Recent Trends

Freiburg D L W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 0)

Union Berlin L L W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Freiburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.95
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.38
# Clean Sheets: 1

Union Berlin

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.44
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.81
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Freiburg are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 65.0% probability of victory against an Union Berlin side given just a 17.0% chance, and a 19.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards a tight, low‑scoring contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a fairly balanced 49.0% probability for over 2.5. In the table, Freiburg sit 8th on 34 points, while Union Berlin are 11th with 28 points and still uncomfortably close to the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Freiburg come into this on a quietly encouraging run: a 2-1 home win over M’gladbach, a 0-2 setback at Eintracht Frankfurt, and then a wild 3-3 draw against Leverkusen where they traded blows with one of the league’s most dangerous attacks. That six-goal thriller underlined their attacking potential but also their defensive vulnerability, with 37 goals scored and 42 conceded across the season. Recent underlying numbers back up the eye test: over the last five games they’ve averaged 2.0 goals scored from 1.948 expected goals and conceded 1.2 from 1.376 expected goals against, with just one clean sheet. Union Berlin arrive with more questions than answers. After a disciplined 1-0 home win over Leverkusen, they’ve slipped to a 0-1 defeat at M’gladbach and a heavy 1-4 home loss to Werder Bremen. The pattern is worrying: only 1.0 goal scored per game in their last five, while conceding 1.8, and their xG numbers (1.438 for, 1.806 against) point to a side that is generally second best in both boxes. With a goal difference of -12 (30 scored, 42 conceded) and just one clean sheet in the last five, they look fragile heading into an away trip to a top‑half opponent.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Freiburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Goals in last 5 matches
The model sides with under 2.5 goals as the most likely outcome, even with the probability of over 2.5 standing close at 49.0%. Freiburg’s last three matches have produced totals of 3, 2 and 6 goals – so 2 out of 3 went over 2.5 – but their five-game averages (2.0 scored, 1.2 conceded; xG 1.948 for, 1.376 against) suggest a more moderate profile. Union’s last three have ended with 5, 1 and 1 total goals, meaning only 1 of 3 went over 2.5, and their lower attacking output combined with Freiburg’s edge at home justifies leaning towards an under 2.5 rather than an over 2.5 prediction for this one.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Freiburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a fairly standard Bundesliga tally, with 9.15 predicted corners overall. Freiburg’s last three games produced corner counts of 3, 6 and 5 for them (and 3, 5 and 2 against), reflecting a side that attacks but isn’t relentlessly wing‑heavy. Union, by contrast, have managed 1, 2 and 4 corners in their last three, while allowing 3, 6 and 5, hinting at a team spending long spells defending. Put together, that supports the expected corners figure around nine, with Freiburg’s home initiative likely to tilt the balance in their favour.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Freiburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots metric points to around 26.02 total efforts in this match, which fits neatly with both teams’ recent numbers. Freiburg’s last three show shot totals of 10, 4 and 21 in their favour, with 12, 15 and 17 faced – high‑event football, especially at home. Union have registered 9, 6 and 8 shots while conceding 15, 21 and 16, underlining their tendency to be pushed back. That volume, combined with Freiburg’s stronger xG profile, makes the shots prediction of roughly mid‑20s attempts a reasonable expectation.

Final Prediction

Freiburg’s stronger form, better attacking metrics and home advantage explain why they are clear favourites, with a 65.0% win probability and a more balanced underlying game than Union Berlin. The key factor to watch will be how aggressively Freiburg press an Union defence that has leaked 1.8 goals per game over the last five matches; if the visitors crack early, the hosts should be able to control both the tempo and the scoreline.

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