Bundesliga 2025-2026: Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Prediction - 7 Feb 2026
Result | Under-Over 2.5
Freiburg
Home Team
73%
VS
Werder Bremen
Away Team
13%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5:
55%
Under 2.5:
45%
Goal:
54%
No Goal:
46%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 74 | 18 | 56 | 51 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 20 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 41 | 19 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | Hoffenheim | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 43 | 23 | 20 | 42 |
| 4 | Stuttgart | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 26 | 11 | 39 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 36 |
| 6 | Leverkusen | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 26 | 12 | 35 |
| 7 | Freiburg | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 33 | -2 | 27 |
| 8 | Ein Frankfurt | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 27 |
| 9 | Union Berlin | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 24 |
| 10 | FC Koln | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 23 |
| 11 | Augsburg | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 22 |
| 12 | M'gladbach | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 24 | 33 | -9 | 21 |
| 13 | Hamburg | 19 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 19 |
| 14 | Wolfsburg | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 19 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 19 |
| 16 | Mainz | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 18 |
| 17 | St Pauli | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 34 | -16 | 14 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 45 | -26 | 13 |
Recent Trends
Freiburg
- Last Match: vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
Werder Bremen
- Last Match: vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 3)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Freiburg
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.49
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.94
# Clean Sheets:
0
Werder Bremen
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.78
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.07
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
Freiburg are clear favorites at home, with a 73.0% chance of taking all three points against a Werder Bremen side that has just a 13.0% win probability and sits 15th, on 19 points. Seventh-placed Freiburg (27 points) are also backed for goals in this one: there’s a 55.0% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 54.0% chance both teams score.
Match Analysis
Freiburg’s recent form is solid if not spectacular: a narrow 1–0 defeat away at fourth-placed Stuttgart followed a 2–1 home win over FC Köln and a 2–2 draw at Augsburg. They’ve shown they can create and convert chances, averaging 2.2 goals scored over their last five matches, backed up by an even stronger 2.49 expected goals. Defensively, they concede only 0.8 goals on average and 0.94 expected goals in that stretch, suggesting good control of games even if they’ve oddly not managed a clean sheet in those five outings.
Werder Bremen arrive in far shakier shape. They’ve taken just one point from their last three matches: a 1–1 home draw with M’gladbach, plus back-to-back defeats to Hoffenheim (2–0) and Leverkusen (1–0). The attacking numbers are worrying: only 0.4 goals scored on average in the last five games, with 0.784 expected goals, while conceding 1.8 goals and 2.068 expected goals per match, and no clean sheets in that period. Those figures underline a team struggling at both ends of the pitch.
Final Prediction
Freiburg’s stronger recent scoring record, tighter defensive stats, and higher league position give them a clear edge, especially at home. The key factor to watch will be whether Bremen’s attack can finally spark into life against a Freiburg side that regularly creates chances and should dictate the tempo.
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