Bundesliga 2025-2026: Hamburg vs Augsburg Prediction - 4 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Hamburg

Home Team
56%
VS

Augsburg

Away Team
22%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 63%
Under 2.5: 37%
Goal: 63%
No Goal: 37%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 24.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 27 22 4 1 97 25 72 70
2 Dortmund 27 18 7 2 58 28 30 61
3 Stuttgart 27 16 5 6 56 36 20 53
4 RB Leipzig 27 15 5 7 53 35 18 50
5 Hoffenheim 27 15 5 7 54 39 15 50
6 Leverkusen 27 13 7 7 52 36 16 46
7 Ein Frankfurt 27 10 8 9 50 51 -1 38
8 Freiburg 27 10 7 10 39 44 -5 37
9 Union Berlin 27 8 7 12 31 46 -15 31
10 Augsburg 27 9 4 14 33 50 -17 31
11 Mainz 27 7 9 11 33 42 -9 30
12 Hamburg 27 7 9 11 31 40 -9 30
13 M'gladbach 27 7 8 12 33 46 -13 29
14 Werder Bremen 27 7 7 13 30 47 -17 28
15 FC Koln 27 6 8 13 38 47 -9 26
16 St Pauli 27 6 6 15 24 44 -20 24
17 Wolfsburg 27 5 6 16 35 57 -22 21
18 Heidenheim 27 3 6 18 27 61 -34 15

Recent Trends

Hamburg L D W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 2)

Augsburg L L L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hamburg

xG (avg) 1.50
xGA (avg) 2.09
Clean Sheets 0

Augsburg

xG (avg) 1.72
xGA (avg) 2.44
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Hamburg are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 56.0% probability of victory compared to Augsburg’s 22.0%, and a 22.0% chance of a draw. The hosts sit 12th on 30 points, just one point and two places behind 10th‑placed Augsburg, so this is a direct mid‑table battle. The model also leans towards goals: the over 2.5 prediction comes in at 63.0% for a match that should be more open than the table suggests.

Match Analysis

Hamburg arrive with a mixed but competitive run: a 2–3 defeat at Dortmund, a 1–1 home draw with FC Köln, and a 2–1 away win at Wolfsburg. They’ve been in every game, yet their recent numbers underline a soft underbelly: 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average in the last five, with expected goals against up at 2.086 and no clean sheets in that spell. At home, the narrow draw with Köln showed their tendency to keep things tight but still allow chances, as highlighted by the 10 shots conceded and heavy 1–8 corner count. Augsburg, meanwhile, are on a worrying three‑match losing streak, but they’ve not collapsed performance‑wise. They fell 2–5 at home to Stuttgart, then lost 0–2 at Dortmund and 1–2 at RB Leipzig. Across the last five, they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with a healthy 1.72 xG for but an even more troubling 2.436 xG against. That profile – creating enough to be dangerous but giving up too much at the other end – mirrors Hamburg’s defensive fragility and helps explain why the edge swings towards the home side in what looks like a relatively even mid‑table contest.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Hamburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points clearly to an over 2.5 prediction at 63.0%. Two of Hamburg’s last three games have gone over 2.5 goals (3 vs Dortmund, 3 vs Wolfsburg), with only the 1–1 against Köln staying under. Augsburg show a similar pattern: the 2–5 defeat to Stuttgart and 1–2 at Leipzig went over, with only the 0–2 at Dortmund under 2.5. With Hamburg averaging 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, and Augsburg at 1.2 for and 1.8 against, backed by xG figures above 1.5 in attack and well over 2.0 conceded for both, the data supports another high‑scoring encounter rather than an under 2.5 affair.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Hamburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.93, pointing towards a roughly average Bundesliga match in terms of set‑piece volume. Hamburg’s last three have produced 14, 9 and 10 total corners, while Augsburg’s have seen 7, 14 and 14, suggesting neither side consistently suppresses wide attacks. Both teams concede a lot of territory to stronger opponents, which inflates corner counts, but in a more balanced fixture the predicted corners figure just under double digits feels realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Hamburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.12, in line with what both sides have been involved in recently. Hamburg’s last three matches have seen 28, 15 and 24 total shots, while Augsburg’s produced 26, 23 and 33, hinting at games that open up once the first goal goes in. With both teams generating over 1.5 xG on average in attack, a shots prediction around the mid‑20s matches their willingness to pull the trigger and their porous defending.

Final Prediction

Hamburg’s home advantage and Augsburg’s three‑game losing run tilt this finely poised mid‑table clash towards the hosts. Both defences allow too many chances, so the key factor to watch will be which front line capitalises more ruthlessly on those spaces – and that is where Hamburg’s slight edge and the numbers behind the goal prediction could prove decisive.

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