Bundesliga 2025-2026: Hamburg vs Leverkusen Prediction - 4 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Hamburg

Home Team
12%
VS

Leverkusen

Away Team
77%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 63%
Under 2.5: 37%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 24 20 3 1 88 23 65 63
2 Dortmund 24 15 7 2 51 25 26 52
3 Hoffenheim 24 14 4 6 49 31 18 46
4 Stuttgart 24 14 4 6 48 32 16 46
5 RB Leipzig 24 13 5 6 46 33 13 44
6 Leverkusen 23 12 4 7 44 29 15 40
7 Ein Frankfurt 24 9 7 8 48 49 -1 34
8 Freiburg 24 9 6 9 34 39 -5 33
9 Augsburg 24 9 4 11 30 41 -11 31
10 Union Berlin 24 7 7 10 29 38 -9 28
11 Hamburg 23 6 8 9 26 34 -8 26
12 M'gladbach 24 6 7 11 27 39 -12 25
13 FC Koln 24 6 6 12 33 41 -8 24
14 Mainz 24 5 8 11 27 39 -12 23
15 St Pauli 24 6 5 13 23 40 -17 23
16 Werder Bremen 24 5 7 12 25 44 -19 22
17 Wolfsburg 24 5 5 14 33 53 -20 20
18 Heidenheim 24 3 5 16 22 53 -31 14

Recent Trends

Hamburg L D W W D

  • Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 2)

Leverkusen D L W D W

  • Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hamburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.60
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.69
# Clean Sheets: 1

Leverkusen

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.49
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.38
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Leverkusen are clear favourites here, with a 77.0% probability of taking all three points away at Hamburg, who are given just a 12.0% chance of an upset and 12.0% for the draw. The model expects an open contest with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 63.0% probability. In the Bundesliga table, Leverkusen are pushing the European spots in 6th on 40 points, while Hamburg sit 11th on 26 points and still need to keep an eye on the scrap below.

Match Analysis

Hamburg’s recent form has been patchy but competitive: a 3-2 home win over Union Berlin, a 1-1 draw at Mainz, and a narrow 2-1 home defeat to RB Leipzig. Those games underline their tendency to stay in matches and create enough to trouble opponents – they’ve scored in each of the last three but also conceded in all of them. Their underlying numbers back that up: over the last five games they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with expected goals at 1.604 for and 1.688 against, plus just one clean sheet. This is a side that gives you chances and relies on outscoring rather than shutting teams down. Leverkusen come in from a more controlled base. Across their last three, they hammered St Pauli 4-0 at home, lost 1-0 at Union Berlin despite having more shots, and drew 1-1 with Mainz. The pattern is of a team generally on the front foot: 1.4 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded on average across the last five, backed by 1.488 xG for and 1.384 xG against, also with one clean sheet. They’re not blowing teams away week after week, but they look slightly more balanced than Hamburg and more efficient in both boxes, which fits their stronger league position in 6th.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Hamburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 63.0% looks well grounded. Two of Hamburg’s last three have gone over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Union Berlin, 2-1 vs RB Leipzig), with only the 1-1 at Mainz landing under. For Leverkusen, it’s the opposite: one over (4-0 vs St Pauli) and two unders (1-1 vs Mainz, 0-1 at Union Berlin), but their five‑game averages of 1.4 scored vs 1.4 and 1.0 conceded respectively, plus xG figures on both sides of 1.4, suggest enough attacking quality on show for at least three goals overall.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Hamburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.45, pointing towards a game hovering around the 9–10 corner mark. Hamburg’s last three have produced 10, 9 and 9 total corners, while Leverkusen’s have seen 11, 9 and 11, which fits well with that corners prediction band. Both teams have shown a willingness to attack – Hamburg especially at home, Leverkusen with territorial dominance – so a steady stream of set‑plays from wide areas seems likely.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Hamburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 24.98, effectively 25 total efforts on goal. Hamburg’s last three matches saw combined shot counts of 20, 31 and 25, while Leverkusen’s produced 20, 24 and 23, all very close to that shots prediction range. With both sides averaging around 1.5 xG for and against, the underlying numbers point towards a game in which chances are regularly carved out rather than a cagey stalemate.

Final Prediction

Leverkusen’s superior league position, tighter defensive record and slightly stronger xG profile give them a clear edge over a Hamburg side that concedes as much as it scores. If they impose their structure and maintain their recent shot volume, their 77.0% win probability looks justified. The key factor to watch will be how Hamburg’s open, risk‑taking approach at home matches up against Leverkusen’s more balanced, efficient attack.

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