Bundesliga 2025-2026: Hamburg vs RB Leipzig Prediction - 1 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Hamburg

Home Team
16%
VS

RB Leipzig

Away Team
69%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 26.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 23 19 3 1 85 21 64 60
2 Dortmund 23 15 7 1 49 22 27 52
3 Hoffenheim 23 14 4 5 49 30 19 46
4 Stuttgart 23 13 4 6 44 32 12 43
5 RB Leipzig 23 12 5 6 44 32 12 41
6 Leverkusen 22 12 3 7 43 28 15 39
7 Freiburg 23 9 6 8 34 37 -3 33
8 Ein Frankfurt 23 8 7 8 46 49 -3 31
9 Union Berlin 23 7 7 9 29 37 -8 28
10 Augsburg 23 8 4 11 28 41 -13 28
11 Hamburg 22 6 8 8 25 32 -7 26
12 FC Koln 23 6 6 11 33 39 -6 24
13 Mainz 23 5 7 11 26 38 -12 22
14 M'gladbach 23 5 7 11 26 39 -13 22
15 Wolfsburg 23 5 5 13 33 49 -16 20
16 St Pauli 23 5 5 13 22 40 -18 20
17 Werder Bremen 23 4 7 12 23 44 -21 19
18 Heidenheim 23 3 5 15 22 51 -29 14

Recent Trends

Hamburg D W W D D

  • Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 0 - 0)

RB Leipzig D D W L D

  • Last Match: D vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hamburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.76
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.46
# Clean Sheets: 2

RB Leipzig

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.76
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.06
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

RB Leipzig are clear favourites here, with a 69.0% chance of taking all three points away in Hamburg, compared to just 16.0% for the hosts and a 15.0% probability of a draw. Leipzig come into this fixture sitting 5th in the Bundesliga on 41 points, pushing for the top four, while Hamburg are 11th on 26 points and still looking over their shoulder at the relegation battle. The model also leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 56.0% and a goal for both sides rated at 58.0%.

Match Analysis

Hamburg arrive in decent form, unbeaten in their last three matches with two wins and a draw. They edged Union Berlin 3-2 at home in a thriller, managed a solid 2-0 away win at bottom side Heidenheim, and earned a 1-1 draw at Mainz. Across these games, Hamburg have shown they can create chances (14 shots vs Mainz, 13 vs Union, 14 vs Heidenheim), but they often allow a lot in return, conceding 17, 12 and 20 shots respectively. Their recent averages back this up: 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game in the last five, with xG of 1.756 for and 1.464 against, plus two clean sheets. Leipzig, meanwhile, look like the more balanced and consistent side. They are unbeaten in their last three as well, drawing 2-2 at home with Dortmund and Wolfsburg, and winning 2-1 away at FC Köln. They’ve been on the front foot in those games, outshooting all three opponents (13-11 vs Dortmund, 20-10 vs Wolfsburg, 19-10 vs Köln), and their underlying numbers are strong: 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average over the last five, with xG at 1.758 for and only 1.062 against. That defensive edge, combined with greater attacking volume, helps explain why the prediction favours an away win.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Hamburg
Goals in last 5 matches
RB Leipzig
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction with a 56.0% probability. Two of Hamburg’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Union Berlin, 2-0 vs Heidenheim, 1-1 vs Mainz), while all three of Leipzig’s recent games produced at least three goals (2-2 vs Dortmund, 2-2 vs Wolfsburg, 2-1 vs Köln). With Hamburg averaging 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, and Leipzig at 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded, plus both sides’ xG figures hovering around 1.75 for and 1.0–1.46 against, the attacking output on both sides supports goals rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Hamburg
Corners in last 5 matches
RB Leipzig
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match is 9.24, suggesting a reasonably active game in wide areas without being extreme. Hamburg’s last three outings saw corner counts of 2-7 vs Mainz, 6-3 vs Union Berlin and 8-10 vs Heidenheim, showing they can both generate and concede plenty when games open up. Leipzig’s recent numbers (6-2 vs Dortmund, 6-2 vs Wolfsburg, 3-4 vs Köln) reflect a proactive, attacking style that usually brings more corners prediction value on their side; combined, these trends align well with an overall total around the 9–10 mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Hamburg
Shots in last 5 matches
RB Leipzig
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.98, indicating a match where both teams should create a fair number of attempts. Hamburg’s last three games produced 14, 13 and 14 shots for, but they also allowed 17, 12 and 20, which fits with a high-activity shots prediction. Leipzig have been even more assertive, with 13, 20 and 19 shots taken in their last three, clearly matching their strong xG of 1.758 per game and supporting the idea that they will drive most of the expected shots tally.

Final Prediction

Leipzig’s edge comes from their superior league position, more controlled defensive metrics, and higher shot volumes, all of which underpin the strong 69.0% win probability. Hamburg’s recent form and attacking threat at home suggest they can trouble Leipzig, but the visitors’ balance at both ends of the pitch should tell. A key factor to watch will be how Hamburg’s leaky shot numbers cope with Leipzig’s sustained pressure and crossing game, which could decide whether this turns into the away win the data predicts.

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