Bundesliga 2025-2026: Hamburg vs Union Berlin Prediction - 14 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Hamburg

Home Team
41%
VS

Union Berlin

Away Team
33%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 21 17 3 1 79 19 60 54
2 Dortmund 21 14 6 1 43 20 23 48
3 Hoffenheim 21 13 3 5 44 28 16 42
4 RB Leipzig 21 12 3 6 40 28 12 39
5 Stuttgart 21 12 3 6 38 28 10 39
6 Leverkusen 20 11 3 6 39 27 12 36
7 Freiburg 21 8 6 7 32 33 -1 30
8 Ein Frankfurt 21 7 7 7 41 46 -5 28
9 Union Berlin 21 6 7 8 26 34 -8 25
10 FC Koln 21 6 5 10 30 34 -4 23
11 Hamburg 20 5 7 8 21 29 -8 22
12 M'gladbach 21 5 7 9 25 34 -9 22
13 Augsburg 21 6 4 11 24 39 -15 22
14 Mainz 21 5 6 10 25 33 -8 21
15 Wolfsburg 21 5 4 12 29 44 -15 19
16 Werder Bremen 21 4 7 10 22 39 -17 19
17 St Pauli 21 4 5 12 20 35 -15 17
18 Heidenheim 21 3 4 14 19 47 -28 13

Recent Trends

Hamburg W D D D L

  • Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)

Union Berlin D L L D D

  • Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hamburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.56
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.25
# Clean Sheets: 3

Union Berlin

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.67
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.18
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Hamburg are slight favourites at home with a 41.0% chance of victory, compared to Union Berlin’s 33.0%, with the draw at 26.0%. The model leans towards a home win in this mid-table clash between 11th-placed Hamburg (22 points from 20 games) and 9th-placed Union Berlin (25 points from 21 games). Goals are expected, with an over 2.5 prediction carrying a 53.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Hamburg come in quietly improving: unbeaten in three, with a 2-0 away win at bottom side Heidenheim and impressive home draw against league leaders Bayern Munich (2-2), before a cagey 0-0 away at St Pauli. That run shows both their growing defensive solidity and ability to trouble stronger opponents, backed up by 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches and averages of 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Union Berlin, by contrast, are wobbling: just one point from their last three games, drawing 1-1 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt but losing 3-1 at Hoffenheim and 3-0 at home to Dortmund. Interestingly, their underlying numbers suggest they should be more dangerous than recent scorelines: over the last 5 games they’ve averaged 1.67 expected goals but only 1.0 actual goal scored per match, while conceding 1.6 goals from a lower xG against of 1.176. Hamburg’s more balanced xG profile (1.558 for, 1.248 against) suggests a team closer to “par”, which, combined with home advantage, tilts the edge their way.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Hamburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours an over 2.5 prediction at 53.0%, expecting at least three goals. Two of Hamburg’s last three games went under 2.5 (2-0 vs Heidenheim, 0-0 vs St Pauli) and one over (2-2 vs Bayern), while Union have seen two of their last three go over (1-3 at Hoffenheim, 0-3 vs Dortmund) and one under (1-1 vs Frankfurt). With Hamburg averaging 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, and Union generating 1.67 xG per match despite only 1.0 actually scored, both sides have the attacking volume to push this above the 2.5-goal line.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Hamburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.44, pointing to a mid-to-high corners prediction rather than an extreme outlier. Hamburg’s last three have produced 11, 12 and 9 total corners, reflecting a side that can both attack and be forced back, as seen in the 8-10 corner count at Heidenheim. Union’s recent matches have also been corner-heavy (7 vs Dortmund, 13 vs Hoffenheim, 7 vs Frankfurt), suggesting two teams willing to get the ball into wide areas and test defences, reinforcing that 9–10 predicted corners is realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Hamburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.33, indicating a reasonably open game without becoming a pure shoot-out. Hamburg’s last three have featured 14, 14 and 5 shots for (with 20, 13 and 8 against), while Union have taken 11, 16 and 10 shots in their matches, often out-shooting opponents. These volumes match the xG profiles: both sides create enough to justify a 25+ shots prediction, with the expected shots likely split fairly evenly given their similar mid-table status.

Final Prediction

Hamburg’s combination of recent form, solid defensive record (three clean sheets in five) and slightly more efficient finishing gives them a narrow edge over an underperforming but dangerous Union Berlin. The key factor to watch will be whether Union’s higher attacking xG finally turns into goals, or if Hamburg’s more clinical edge at home decides the contest.

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