Bundesliga 2025-2026: Heidenheim vs Hamburg Prediction - 7 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Heidenheim

Home Team
25%
VS

Hamburg

Away Team
54%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 20 16 3 1 74 18 56 51
2 Dortmund 20 13 6 1 41 19 22 45
3 Hoffenheim 20 13 3 4 43 23 20 42
4 Stuttgart 20 12 3 5 37 26 11 39
5 RB Leipzig 20 11 3 6 38 27 11 36
6 Leverkusen 19 11 2 6 38 26 12 35
7 Freiburg 20 7 6 7 31 33 -2 27
8 Ein Frankfurt 20 7 6 7 40 45 -5 27
9 Union Berlin 20 6 6 8 25 33 -8 24
10 FC Koln 20 6 5 9 29 32 -3 23
11 Augsburg 20 6 4 10 24 37 -13 22
12 M'gladbach 20 5 6 9 24 33 -9 21
13 Hamburg 19 4 7 8 19 29 -10 19
14 Wolfsburg 20 5 4 11 28 42 -14 19
15 Werder Bremen 20 4 7 9 22 38 -16 19
16 Mainz 20 4 6 10 23 33 -10 18
17 St Pauli 20 3 5 12 18 34 -16 14
18 Heidenheim 20 3 4 13 19 45 -26 13

Recent Trends

Heidenheim L L D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 2)

Hamburg D D D L D

  • Last Match: D vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Heidenheim

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.53
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.36
# Clean Sheets: 0

Hamburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.07
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.25
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Hamburg are favored to take all three points away at Heidenheim, with a 54.0% probability of an away win compared to just 25.0% for the hosts and 21.0% for a draw. The game is also projected to be open, with a 50.0% chance of over 2.5 goals and a tilt towards “over” being the predicted outcome. In the table, Hamburg sit 13th on 19 points, while Heidenheim are bottom in 18th with 13 points and deep in relegation trouble.

Match Analysis

Heidenheim come into this one with just one point from their last three matches: a 3–2 defeat at Dortmund, a 3–0 home loss to RB Leipzig and a 1–1 draw away at Wolfsburg. They’ve at least shown some attacking spark, scoring in two of those three games, but the defensive issues are glaring. Over their last five matches they concede an average of 2.6 goals per game and have no clean sheets, despite reasonably solid attacking underlying numbers at 1.532 expected goals per match. Hamburg’s recent form is steadier but still modest: three straight draws – 2–2 at home to Bayern Munich, then back‑to‑back 0–0s against St Pauli (away) and M’gladbach (home). Those results suggest a side that can frustrate opponents but struggles to finish chances, reflected in their 0.6 actual goals per game over the last five matches versus 1.068 expected goals. Defensively, they’ve tightened up a bit, allowing 2.2 goals per game over that spell with two clean sheets and 2.246 expected goals conceded.

Final Prediction

Hamburg’s edge comes from their slightly more robust defensive profile and higher league position, facing a Heidenheim side with the league’s worst goal difference (-26) and a leaky back line. If Hamburg can turn their expected chances into actual goals against a vulnerable defense, they are well placed to win. The key factor to watch will be whether Heidenheim’s attack, which creates enough on paper, can finally convert while keeping Hamburg from exploiting their defensive frailty.

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