Bundesliga 2025-2026: Heidenheim vs Hoffenheim Prediction - 7 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Heidenheim

Home Team
6%
VS

Hoffenheim

Away Team
88%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 27.5

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 24 20 3 1 88 23 65 63
2 Dortmund 24 15 7 2 51 25 26 52
3 Hoffenheim 24 14 4 6 49 31 18 46
4 Stuttgart 24 14 4 6 48 32 16 46
5 RB Leipzig 24 13 5 6 46 33 13 44
6 Leverkusen 24 13 4 7 45 29 16 43
7 Ein Frankfurt 24 9 7 8 48 49 -1 34
8 Freiburg 24 9 6 9 34 39 -5 33
9 Augsburg 24 9 4 11 30 41 -11 31
10 Union Berlin 24 7 7 10 29 38 -9 28
11 Hamburg 24 6 8 10 26 35 -9 26
12 M'gladbach 24 6 7 11 27 39 -12 25
13 FC Koln 24 6 6 12 33 41 -8 24
14 Mainz 24 5 8 11 27 39 -12 23
15 St Pauli 24 6 5 13 23 40 -17 23
16 Werder Bremen 24 5 7 12 25 44 -19 22
17 Wolfsburg 24 5 5 14 33 53 -20 20
18 Heidenheim 24 3 5 16 22 53 -31 14

Recent Trends

Heidenheim L D L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Stuttgart (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 3)

Hoffenheim L D W L W

  • Last Match: L vs St Pauli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Heidenheim

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.58
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.41
# Clean Sheets: 0

Hoffenheim

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.37
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.24
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Hoffenheim travel to bottom‑club Heidenheim as overwhelming favourites, with an 88.0% probability of an away win against just 6.0% for the hosts and 6.0% for the draw. Sitting 3rd on 46 points and firmly in the Champions League race, Hoffenheim are expected to overpower 18th‑placed Heidenheim, who have only 14 points and the league’s worst goal difference. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 62.0% in what should be an open contest.

Match Analysis

Heidenheim come into this under heavy pressure and short on momentum. A 0–2 defeat at Werder Bremen and a 0–1 loss at Augsburg sandwich a wild 3–3 home draw with Stuttgart, underlining both their defensive frailty and occasional attacking punch. Across the last five games they’ve averaged just 1.0 goal scored but 2.8 conceded, with no clean sheets, and an xG against of 2.408 per match backs up how regularly they allow clear chances. Hoffenheim’s last three outings show more control and quality, even if not always rewarded. They dismantled Freiburg 3–0 with 25 shots, drew 2–2 away at FC Köln, and then surprisingly slipped to a 0–1 home defeat against St Pauli despite dominating with 20 shots and 10 corners. Over their last five, they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with xG of 1.368 for and 2.244 against – numbers that suggest they create enough but sometimes leave gaps. Even so, compared with Heidenheim’s leaky back line and 53 goals conceded in 24 league matches, Hoffenheim’s balance and third‑place standing point clearly in their favour.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Heidenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
Hoffenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 62.0% is well supported by recent scorelines and underlying numbers. Two of Heidenheim’s last three league games went over 2.5 goals (3–3 vs Stuttgart, 0–2 vs Bremen just under, 0–1 vs Augsburg under), but their averages of 1.0 scored and 2.8 conceded, plus xG for of 1.58 and xG against of 2.408, point towards another game with chances at both ends. For Hoffenheim, two of their last three also hit at least three goals (3–0 vs Freiburg, 2–2 vs Köln, with only the 0–1 vs St Pauli under 2.5), and their 49 goals scored in 24 games underline why “over” is the likelier outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Heidenheim
Corners in last 5 matches
Hoffenheim
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.8, which matches the recent patterns of both sides. Heidenheim’s last three matches produced 5, 7 and 9 corners respectively, as they tend to be forced back but still generate some pressure, particularly away at Augsburg where they earned five. Hoffenheim have been a corner machine: 10–3 vs St Pauli, 10–3 at Köln and 6–6 vs Freiburg, reflecting an aggressive, front‑foot style that should again drive the predicted corners tally close to double figures.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Heidenheim
Shots in last 5 matches
Hoffenheim
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With expected shots set at 27.53, this promises to be a busy afternoon for both goalkeepers. Heidenheim’s last three games have seen them take 9, 10 and 16 shots while facing 17, 12 and 12, numbers that mirror their high xG against and frequent defensive strain. Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have fired off 20, 18 and 25 efforts in their last three, matching their strong attacking xG and supporting a shots prediction comfortably in the high‑20s.

Final Prediction

Hoffenheim have the edge in league position, recent form, attacking output and defensive stability, all feeding into the 88.0% probability of an away win. If Heidenheim are to resist, their ability to limit Hoffenheim’s shot volume and protect a defence conceding 2.8 goals per game recently will be the key factor to watch.

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