Bundesliga 2025-2026: Heidenheim vs Leverkusen Prediction - 21 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Heidenheim

Home Team
20%
VS

Leverkusen

Away Team
62%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 25.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 26 21 4 1 93 25 68 67
2 Dortmund 26 17 7 2 55 26 29 58
3 Hoffenheim 26 15 5 6 54 34 20 50
4 Stuttgart 26 15 5 6 51 34 17 50
5 RB Leipzig 26 14 5 7 48 35 13 47
6 Leverkusen 26 13 6 7 49 33 16 45
7 Ein Frankfurt 26 10 8 8 49 49 0 38
8 Freiburg 26 9 7 10 37 43 -6 34
9 Union Berlin 26 8 7 11 31 42 -11 31
10 Augsburg 26 9 4 13 31 45 -14 31
11 Hamburg 26 7 9 10 29 37 -8 30
12 M'gladbach 26 7 7 12 30 43 -13 28
13 Mainz 26 6 9 11 31 41 -10 27
14 FC Koln 26 6 7 13 35 44 -9 25
15 Werder Bremen 26 6 7 13 29 47 -18 25
16 St Pauli 26 6 6 14 23 42 -19 24
17 Wolfsburg 26 5 6 15 35 56 -21 21
18 Heidenheim 26 3 5 18 24 58 -34 14

Recent Trends

Heidenheim L L L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Stuttgart (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 1)

Leverkusen D D W D L

  • Last Match: D vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Freiburg (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Heidenheim

xG (avg) 1.48
xGA (avg) 2.29
Clean Sheets 0

Leverkusen

xG (avg) 1.67
xGA (avg) 1.35
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Leverkusen are clear favourites here, with a 62.0% probability of taking all three points away at rock-bottom Heidenheim, who are given just a 20.0% chance of an upset. The model leans towards an open game with an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% probability. In the table, Leverkusen sit 6th on 45 points and pushing for Europe, while Heidenheim are 18th with 14 points and staring at relegation.

Match Analysis

Heidenheim come into this under severe pressure and in poor form, having lost their last three Bundesliga games: 0-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt, 2-4 at home to Hoffenheim and 0-2 at Werder Bremen. They have shown they can create some threat going forward – scoring twice against a top-four Hoffenheim side – but the defensive frailty is stark, conceding seven in those three matches and never keeping a clean sheet. Their last five games back this up: they average 1.4 goals scored but a hefty 2.8 conceded, with an xG against of 2.292 per match underlining that these chances allowed are no accident. Leverkusen, by contrast, look far more stable. They are unbeaten in their last three, with home draw against leaders Bayern Munich (1-1), a wild 3-3 at Freiburg and a controlled 1-0 away win at Hamburg. Across their last five, they average 1.6 goals scored and only 1.2 conceded, and both their xG for (1.668) and xG against (1.346) suggest a side that consistently creates slightly more than it allows. One clean sheet in that period hints they are not watertight, but compared to Heidenheim’s defensive record, Leverkusen appear much the better-balanced team.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Heidenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction (60.0% probability) feels well supported by recent scorelines. Two of Heidenheim’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (2-4 vs Hoffenheim and 0-2 vs Bremen just under), and given they concede 2.8 per game on average, their matches tend to open up. Leverkusen have split it: one low-scoring game (1-0 vs Hamburg) and two under/over 2.5 borderline contests (1-1 vs Bayern, 3-3 vs Freiburg), but their 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded per match, along with their 1.668 xG for, point toward enough attacking quality to push the game above the line, especially against a fragile home defence.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Heidenheim
Corners in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction stands at an expected total of 9.18, which fits neatly with what both sides have produced recently. Heidenheim’s last three have seen combined corner counts of 9, 7 and 5, while Leverkusen’s have produced 5, 7 and 9. With Leverkusen likely to dominate territory and Heidenheim forced to defend deep and scramble clear, a total near the predicted corners figure around nine looks reasonable for two teams whose recent games have generally hovered around that mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Heidenheim
Shots in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.69, again consistent with the recent pattern. Heidenheim’s last three have featured 15, 24 and 26 total shots, while Leverkusen’s have produced 32, 38 and 24 – high-volume affairs, especially against Bayern and Freiburg. Given Leverkusen’s xG of 1.668 going forward and Heidenheim’s 2.292 xG against, the shots prediction of around 26 efforts in total feels realistic, with the visitors likely to account for the majority.

Final Prediction

Leverkusen’s superior league position, firmer defensive structure and more reliable attacking numbers all give them a clear edge over a Heidenheim side conceding heavily and rooted to the bottom. The key factor to watch will be how long Heidenheim can resist Leverkusen’s pressure; if the visitors score early, this could quickly turn into the kind of open, chance-heavy game the numbers are pointing towards.

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