Bundesliga 2025-2026: Heidenheim vs Mainz Prediction - 16 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Heidenheim

Home Team
31%
VS

Mainz

Away Team
44%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 27.0
Expected Spread: -0.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 33 27 5 1 117 35 82 86
2 Dortmund 33 21 7 5 68 34 34 70
3 RB Leipzig 33 20 5 8 65 43 22 65
4 Stuttgart 33 18 7 8 69 47 22 61
5 Hoffenheim 33 18 7 8 65 48 17 61
6 Leverkusen 33 17 7 9 67 46 21 58
7 Freiburg 33 12 8 13 47 56 -9 44
8 Ein Frankfurt 33 11 10 12 59 63 -4 43
9 Augsburg 33 12 7 14 45 57 -12 43
10 Mainz 33 9 10 14 42 53 -11 37
11 Hamburg 33 9 10 14 39 53 -14 37
12 Union Berlin 33 9 9 15 40 58 -18 36
13 M'gladbach 33 8 11 14 38 53 -15 35
14 FC Koln 33 7 11 15 48 58 -10 32
15 Werder Bremen 33 8 8 17 37 58 -21 32
16 Wolfsburg 33 6 8 19 42 68 -26 26
17 Heidenheim 33 6 8 19 41 70 -29 26
18 St Pauli 33 6 8 19 28 57 -29 26

Recent Trends

Heidenheim W D W L W

  • Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 1)

Mainz L W L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Heidenheim

xG (avg) 1.84
xGA (avg) 1.87
Clean Sheets 1

Mainz

xG (avg) 2.11
xGA (avg) 1.31
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Mainz are slight favourites for this one, with a 44.0% chance of taking all three points away at Heidenheim, who sit 17th, while the home side’s win probability is 31.0% and the draw stands at 25.0%. The model leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% likelihood. In the table, Mainz are 10th on 37 points, while Heidenheim are level on 26 points with bottom‑club St Pauli and fighting to escape the drop.

Match Analysis

Heidenheim come in with real momentum: a 3–1 win at Köln, an eye‑catching 3–3 draw at Bayern, and a 2–0 home victory over St Pauli. Those seven points from nine have transformed the mood, and their attack has sparked into life with 2.6 goals scored on average across the last five matches. At the same time, they remain fragile at the back, conceding 2.2 per game in that span and keeping just one clean sheet, which keeps them lodged in the relegation zone with 70 goals conceded over the season. Mainz’s recent form has been more mixed, but they’ve been competitive: a 2–1 away win at St Pauli was sandwiched between a 3–4 home loss to Bayern and a 1–3 defeat to Union Berlin. The underlying numbers are kinder than the scorelines: in the last five games they average 2.106 expected goals for and only 1.312 against, yet are actually scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.8. That suggests a side generally creating more than the raw results show and defending with better control than Heidenheim, which helps explain why the away team is favoured.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Heidenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
Mainz
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% is backed up firmly by recent results. Two of Heidenheim’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3–1 at Köln, 3–3 at Bayern), with only the 2–0 win over St Pauli staying under, and they’re averaging 2.6 scored and 2.2 conceded in their last five. Mainz have also seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (3–4 vs Bayern, 1–3 vs Union), and their xG profile – 2.106 for and 1.312 against – points to a matchup that should produce chances at both ends rather than an under 2.5 cagey battle.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Heidenheim
Corners in last 5 matches
Mainz
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 10.06 total corners, which fits how both sides have been playing. Heidenheim’s last three games produced 10, 18 and 12 corners respectively, while Mainz’s had 8, 14 and 8, so all six matches landed close to or above double digits. With both teams looking to attack – Heidenheim chasing survival, Mainz pushing from mid‑table – a game played in the wide areas and with frequent final‑third entries supports this level of predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Heidenheim
Shots in last 5 matches
Mainz
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 27.0, which is consistent with the way both teams have been trading blows lately. Heidenheim’s last three outings saw them take 11, 12 and 12 shots, while facing 18, 23 and 11; Mainz have fired 14, 17 and 21 attempts and faced 16, 10 and 11. Given Mainz’s strong attacking xG of 2.106 and Heidenheim’s willingness to commit men forward, a shots prediction around the high‑20s feels in line with the volume of chances both are generating.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Heidenheim wins by X goals. Negative = Mainz wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Heidenheim vs Mainz with expected spread of -0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Heidenheim vs Mainz
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.24 in favour of Mainz, indicating the away side are expected to edge it by roughly a quarter of a goal. Heidenheim’s recent goal differences (+2 vs Köln, 0 vs Bayern, +2 vs St Pauli) are impressive, but they’re still averaging 2.2 conceded across their last five, which weighs on the expected spread. Mainz’s closer defensive numbers – just 0.8 conceded per game recently, underpinned by only 1.312 xG against – and their 44.0% win probability tilt the balance slightly towards an away win.

Final Prediction

Mainz’s edge comes from a more solid defensive base and stronger recent underlying numbers, even if Heidenheim’s late surge keeps this from being anything like a foregone conclusion. If Mainz can translate their 2.106 xG per game into goals while maintaining their relatively tight back line, they should justify their status as slight favourites. The key factor to watch will be whether Heidenheim’s expansive, high‑scoring approach can once again overwhelm their defensive weaknesses in a match that has all the ingredients for goals.

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