Bundesliga 2025-2026: Heidenheim vs St Pauli Prediction - 25 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Heidenheim

Home Team
37%
VS

St Pauli

Away Team
38%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 24.9
Expected Spread: +0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 30 25 4 1 109 29 80 79
2 Dortmund 30 19 7 4 61 31 30 64
3 RB Leipzig 30 18 5 7 59 37 22 59
4 Stuttgart 30 17 5 8 62 42 20 56
5 Hoffenheim 30 16 6 8 59 44 15 54
6 Leverkusen 30 15 7 8 60 41 19 52
7 Freiburg 30 12 7 11 44 48 -4 43
8 Ein Frankfurt 30 11 9 10 55 57 -2 42
9 Augsburg 30 10 6 14 38 54 -16 36
10 Mainz 30 8 10 12 36 45 -9 34
11 Union Berlin 30 8 8 14 34 52 -18 32
12 FC Koln 30 7 10 13 44 51 -7 31
13 M'gladbach 30 7 10 13 36 50 -14 31
14 Hamburg 30 7 10 13 33 48 -15 31
15 Werder Bremen 30 8 7 15 35 53 -18 31
16 St Pauli 30 6 8 16 26 51 -25 26
17 Wolfsburg 30 6 6 18 41 66 -25 24
18 Heidenheim 30 4 7 19 33 66 -33 19

Recent Trends

Heidenheim L W D D L

  • Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 1)

St Pauli D L D L L

  • Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Heidenheim

xG (avg) 1.62
xGA (avg) 1.94
Clean Sheets 0

St Pauli

xG (avg) 1.09
xGA (avg) 1.96
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

St Pauli are marginally preferred to edge this one, with a 38.0% chance of an away win against a 37.0% probability for Heidenheim and 25.0% for the draw. The model leans towards a tight, low‑scoring contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 54.0% (46.0% for over). In the table, St Pauli sit 16th on 26 points, while bottom‑placed Heidenheim are 18th with 19 points, making this a direct relegation dogfight.

Match Analysis

Heidenheim come into the game with some quiet momentum: a 3-1 home win over Union Berlin sandwiched between a 2-2 draw at M’gladbach and a narrow 2-1 defeat at Freiburg. They’ve shown they can score – 6 goals in those three outings – but remain fragile at the back, conceding 5 over the same spell and failing to keep a single clean sheet in their last five. Their recent averages underline this dual nature: 2.2 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per match in the last five, with xG at 1.618 for and 1.94 against. St Pauli arrive in worse form in front of goal. They’ve drawn 1-1 with FC Köln and Union Berlin, either side of a heavy 5-0 home loss to Bayern Munich. That’s just 2 goals scored in their last three, with 7 conceded. Over the last five matches their attacking numbers are poor: 0.6 goals scored per game from an average xG of 1.09, while shipping 1.8 goals on xGA of 1.962, again with no clean sheets. The data paints a picture of a side creating some chances but not finishing, and often second‑best at both ends.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Heidenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards under 2.5, with a 54.0% implied probability against 46.0% for over 2.5 prediction. Two of Heidenheim’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-1 vs Union, 2-2 at M’gladbach), with only the 2-1 defeat at Freiburg also comfortably above the line – in fact, all three produced at least three goals. For St Pauli, however, 2 of their last 3 stayed under 2.5 (1-1 vs Köln, 1-1 at Union), only the Bayern loss going over, and their five‑game averages of 0.6 scored and 1.8 conceded, backed by modest xG and xGA, support an under 2.5 call in what could become a cagey relegation battle.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Heidenheim
Corners in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.17 total corners in this match. Heidenheim’s last three have produced 9, 8 and 7 corners respectively, reflecting a team that doesn’t constantly camp in the opposition box but still forces a steady trickle from wide play. St Pauli, meanwhile, have been involved in higher corner counts – 13 vs Köln, 7 vs Bayern, 9 at Union – suggesting that their style, even when struggling, tends to generate and concede a fair number of set‑piece situations. Combining these profiles, the predicted corners figure fits a match with periods of pressure at both ends rather than end‑to‑end bombardment.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Heidenheim
Shots in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction stands at 24.91 expected shots in total. Heidenheim’s last three have seen them take 13, 7 and 15 attempts, while allowing 17, 10 and 15 – consistently around the mid‑20s in combined volume. St Pauli posted 14, 6 and 9 shots in their recent trio, conceding 10, 20 and 16, which again lands in the mid‑20s range and matches the expected shots number. With Heidenheim’s higher recent goal output matching stronger xG, and St Pauli’s underperformance in attack, the shot count should be balanced but with the home side slightly more efficient in turning efforts into real danger.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Heidenheim wins by X goals. Negative = St Pauli wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Heidenheim vs St Pauli with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Heidenheim vs St Pauli
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is effectively a coin toss: an expected spread of +0.08 for Heidenheim, meaning the model sees the game as almost level, with the tiniest tilt toward the hosts on the scoreboard. Recent goal differences back this picture of fine margins – Heidenheim are +1 over their last three (6 scored, 5 conceded), while St Pauli are -5 (2 scored, 7 conceded), heavily influenced by Bayern’s 5-0 win. Yet the overall win probabilities still slightly favour St Pauli, a reflection of Heidenheim’s season‑long defensive frailty and St Pauli’s higher league position despite similar recent issues.

Final Prediction

St Pauli’s slight edge comes from their league standing, marginally stronger defensive profile across the season, and the model’s 38.0% away‑win probability, even if Heidenheim’s recent uptick keeps this wide open. The key factor to watch will be who handles the pressure better in both boxes: Heidenheim’s more potent but leaky attack against a St Pauli side that has struggled to score but may be more disciplined in a must‑not‑lose scenario.

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