Bundesliga 2025-2026: Heidenheim vs Stuttgart Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Heidenheim

Home Team
3%
VS

Stuttgart

Away Team
92%
Draw: 4%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 26.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 22 18 3 1 82 19 63 57
2 Dortmund 22 15 6 1 47 20 27 51
3 Hoffenheim 22 14 3 5 47 28 19 45
4 Stuttgart 22 13 3 6 41 29 12 42
5 RB Leipzig 22 12 4 6 42 30 12 40
6 Leverkusen 21 12 3 6 43 27 16 39
7 Ein Frankfurt 22 8 7 7 44 46 -2 31
8 Freiburg 22 8 6 8 32 36 -4 30
9 Hamburg 21 6 7 8 24 31 -7 25
10 Union Berlin 22 6 7 9 28 37 -9 25
11 Augsburg 22 7 4 11 25 39 -14 25
12 FC Koln 22 6 5 11 31 37 -6 23
13 M'gladbach 22 5 7 10 25 37 -12 22
14 Mainz 22 5 6 11 25 37 -12 21
15 Wolfsburg 22 5 5 12 31 46 -15 20
16 Werder Bremen 22 4 7 11 22 42 -20 19
17 St Pauli 22 4 5 13 20 39 -19 17
18 Heidenheim 22 3 4 15 19 48 -29 13

Recent Trends

Heidenheim L L L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)

Stuttgart W L W W D

  • Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Heidenheim

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.67
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.11
# Clean Sheets: 0

Stuttgart

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.90
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.34
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Stuttgart are clear favourites here, with a 92.0% probability of taking all three points away at bottom‑placed Heidenheim, who have just a 3.0% chance of an upset and sit 18th in the table. Fourth‑placed Stuttgart are pushing for the Champions League spots and are expected to show that gulf in quality. The model also leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% and a decent 56.0% chance that both teams get on the scoresheet.

Match Analysis

Heidenheim come into this one on a three‑match losing streak, and the pattern is worrying: 0-1 at Augsburg, 0-2 at home to Hamburg, and 2-3 away at Dortmund. They’ve managed only two goals in those three fixtures while conceding six, and they have not kept a clean sheet in their last five games overall. The advanced metrics underline the problem: they concede an average of 2.4 goals per game over the last five, with expected goals against at 2.112, suggesting they consistently allow opponents good chances. Stuttgart, by contrast, look like a top‑four side in form. They have taken two wins from their last three – 3-1 against FC Köln and 1-0 versus Freiburg – with only a narrow 1-2 defeat at St Pauli interrupting the run. Offensively they are sharp, averaging 2.6 goals scored across the last five matches, backed up by 1.898 expected goals per game. Defensively they are far more solid than Heidenheim, conceding just 1.0 goal on average in that span, with 1.336 xG conceded and two clean sheets, which supports their strong position in fourth place.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Heidenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0%, and recent scorelines support that. Two of Heidenheim’s last three matches (0-1, 0-2, 2-3) went over 2.5 goals, while two of Stuttgart’s last three (3-1, 1-2, 1-0) also finished above that line. With Heidenheim allowing 2.4 goals per game and Stuttgart scoring 2.6, plus both sides’ xG figures (1.67 for Heidenheim, 1.898 for Stuttgart), the balance of evidence backs another game with at least three goals rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Heidenheim
Corners in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.48, pointing to around nine or ten corners overall. Recent games back this corners prediction: Heidenheim’s last three have produced 9, 18 and 15 corners respectively, while Stuttgart’s have seen 7, 10 and 8. Both teams are willing to get shots and crosses off – especially Heidenheim when chasing games and Stuttgart when on the front foot – which naturally generates predicted corners in that 9–10 range.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Heidenheim
Shots in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total here is 26.74, suggesting a reasonably busy attacking game. Heidenheim’s last three matches have featured 28, 34 and 31 total shots, while Stuttgart’s have seen 23, 22 and 29, so a shots prediction around the mid‑20s to high‑20s is well supported by recent data. That shot volume aligns with Stuttgart’s strong attacking xG (1.898) and Heidenheim’s tendency to concede chances, making around 27 expected shots a realistic forecast.

Final Prediction

Stuttgart’s superior league position (4th vs 18th), recent form, and far better attacking and defensive numbers explain why they are overwhelming favourites to win. The key factor to watch will be whether Heidenheim’s vulnerable back line can withstand Stuttgart’s consistent chance creation, or whether the visitors pull away early and turn this into another high‑scoring statement performance.

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