Bundesliga 2025-2026: Heidenheim vs Union Berlin Prediction - 11 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Heidenheim

Home Team
36%
VS

Union Berlin

Away Team
38%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 26.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 28 23 4 1 100 27 73 73
2 Dortmund 28 19 7 2 60 28 32 64
3 RB Leipzig 28 16 5 7 55 36 19 53
4 Stuttgart 28 16 5 7 56 38 18 53
5 Hoffenheim 28 15 5 8 55 41 14 50
6 Leverkusen 28 14 7 7 58 39 19 49
7 Ein Frankfurt 28 10 9 9 52 53 -1 39
8 Freiburg 28 10 7 11 41 47 -6 37
9 Mainz 28 8 9 11 35 43 -8 33
10 Union Berlin 28 8 8 12 32 47 -15 32
11 Augsburg 28 9 5 14 34 51 -17 32
12 Hamburg 28 7 10 11 32 41 -9 31
13 M'gladbach 28 7 9 12 35 48 -13 30
14 Werder Bremen 28 7 7 14 31 49 -18 28
15 FC Koln 28 6 9 13 40 49 -9 27
16 St Pauli 28 6 7 15 25 45 -20 25
17 Wolfsburg 28 5 6 17 38 63 -25 21
18 Heidenheim 28 3 7 18 29 63 -34 16

Recent Trends

Heidenheim D D L L L

  • Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 0 - 2)

Union Berlin D L W L L

  • Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Heidenheim

xG (avg) 1.39
xGA (avg) 2.13
Clean Sheets 0

Union Berlin

xG (avg) 0.96
xGA (avg) 2.71
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Union Berlin are slight favourites away from home, with a 38.0% chance of victory compared to Heidenheim’s 36.0%, and the draw at 25.0%. The model edges towards an away win in a tight matchup between 18th-placed Heidenheim (16 points) and 10th-placed Union Berlin (32 points). The game is expected to be cagey, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a relatively balanced goal outlook.

Match Analysis

Heidenheim come into this under heavy relegation pressure but with signs of life. They’ve drawn back-to-back against M’gladbach (2-2 away) and Leverkusen (3-3 at home) before a narrow 0-1 defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt. Those two high-scoring draws show they can hurt teams offensively, yet the single shot output at Frankfurt underlines how inconsistent they still are. Defensively, their last five games tell a worrying story: they concede an average of 3.0 goals per match, with no clean sheets and an xGA of 2.132, which keeps them rooted to the bottom. Union Berlin are safer in mid-table but hardly flying. A solid 1-0 win away at Freiburg was followed by a heavy 0-4 loss at Bayern Munich and a 1-1 home draw with St Pauli. The pattern is of a low-scoring attack (0.8 goals per game over the last five, backed up by just 0.956 xG on average) and a defence that can be exposed, conceding 2.2 goals per match with an xGA of 2.71. Their one clean sheet in the last five hints they can dig in when needed, which may be crucial away at the league’s bottom side.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Heidenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with a 52.0% implied probability (from a 48.0% chance of over 2.5) despite Heidenheim’s recent thrillers. Two of Heidenheim’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (2-2, 3-3) before the 0-1 loss at Frankfurt brought them back under 2.5. Union Berlin, by contrast, have had two of their last three finish under 2.5 (1-0 at Freiburg, 1-1 vs St Pauli), with only the 0-4 defeat at Bayern going over. Given both sides’ modest attacking xG – 1.394 for Heidenheim and 0.956 for Union – the under 2.5 prediction is supported by the underlying numbers, even if the scoreline could still see both teams on the board.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Heidenheim
Corners in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.0 total, pointing to a moderately open contest without relentless end-to-end pressure. Heidenheim’s last three have produced 5, 7 and 9 total corners, while Union’s have seen 8, 13 and 8, reflecting games where they often absorb pressure and concede set-piece opportunities. With both teams preferring fairly direct, physical football rather than constant wide overloads, predicted corners around nine feels in line with recent trends rather than a flag-fest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Heidenheim
Shots in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.99, suggesting a match with a reasonable amount of goalmouth action but not a shot-heavy siege. Heidenheim’s last three have seen combined shot counts of 30, 23 and 15, while Union’s have ended with 25, 36 and 28 – a mix of tight affairs and matches where they’ve been pushed back and forced to defend. This shots prediction also matches the xG picture: both sides create around one xG per game but concede over two, indicating that while chances will come, the finishing may not turn this into a high-scoring spectacle.

Final Prediction

Union Berlin’s slight edge comes from their higher league position, marginally better defensive record in recent games, and the model’s 38.0% win probability. Heidenheim’s leaky back line and lack of clean sheets weigh heavily against them, even at home. The key factor to watch will be how Union manage Heidenheim’s sporadic attacking bursts; if the visitors control transitions, their discipline and efficiency should tilt a tight game in their favour.

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