Bundesliga 2025-2026: Hoffenheim vs Dortmund Prediction - 18 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Hoffenheim

Home Team
31%
VS

Dortmund

Away Team
44%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 29 24 4 1 105 27 78 76
2 Dortmund 29 19 7 3 60 29 31 64
3 Stuttgart 29 17 5 7 60 38 22 56
4 RB Leipzig 29 17 5 7 56 36 20 56
5 Leverkusen 29 15 7 7 59 39 20 52
6 Hoffenheim 29 15 6 8 57 43 14 51
7 Ein Frankfurt 29 11 9 9 54 54 0 42
8 Freiburg 29 11 7 11 42 47 -5 40
9 Mainz 29 8 9 12 35 44 -9 33
10 Augsburg 29 9 6 14 36 53 -17 33
11 Union Berlin 29 8 8 13 33 50 -17 32
12 Hamburg 29 7 10 12 32 45 -13 31
13 FC Koln 29 7 9 13 43 50 -7 30
14 M'gladbach 29 7 9 13 35 49 -14 30
15 Werder Bremen 29 7 7 15 32 52 -20 28
16 St Pauli 29 6 7 16 25 50 -25 25
17 Wolfsburg 29 5 6 18 39 65 -26 21
18 Heidenheim 29 4 7 18 32 64 -32 19

Recent Trends

Hoffenheim D L L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 4 - 2)

Dortmund L W W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hoffenheim

xG (avg) 1.95
xGA (avg) 1.07
Clean Sheets 0

Dortmund

xG (avg) 1.61
xGA (avg) 1.61
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Dortmund are slight favourites here, with a 44.0% chance of taking all three points away to sixth‑placed Hoffenheim, whose home win probability sits at 31.0% (draw: 24.0%). The model points towards an attacking contest, with an over 2.5 prediction at 57.0% and a goal for both sides rated at 62.0%. Second in the table on 64 points, Dortmund are under pressure to keep Bayern in sight, while Hoffenheim (51 points) are chasing the top‑four pack.

Match Analysis

Hoffenheim come into this on a poor run: a 0-5 hammering at Leipzig, a 1-2 home defeat to Mainz and a 2-2 draw in Augsburg. Defensively they have looked fragile in moments, shipping nine goals in those three games, and they have not managed a single clean sheet in their last five. Yet the advanced numbers show they are creating: an average of 1.948 expected goals and 1.6 actual goals per game over their last five suggests the attack is functioning better than recent raw results indicate. Dortmund’s last three outings tell a more positive, if still imperfect, story. They ground out a 2-0 win at Stuttgart, edged Hamburg 3-2 in a high‑volume shooting display (24-4 in shots, 11-3 in corners), then narrowly lost 0-1 at home to Leverkusen despite edging shots 14-11. Over their last five games they are scoring 2.2 goals per match and conceding just 0.8, with two clean sheets in that stretch – a clear contrast to Hoffenheim’s open‑door policy at the back. Interestingly, Dortmund’s xG profile (1.61 for, 1.608 against) suggests their recent defensive tightness may be a touch flattering, but their superior finishing and game management give them a clear edge.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Hoffenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
Dortmund
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 57.0% looks well supported by recent scorelines. Two of Hoffenheim’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (2-2 vs Augsburg, 0-5 at Leipzig), with only the 1-2 home loss to Mainz just under that line in terms of their own scoring. For Dortmund, two of their last three also hit at least three goals (3-2 vs Hamburg, 2-0 at Stuttgart, 0-1 vs Leverkusen), and their averages of 2.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, combined with Hoffenheim’s 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded – plus both sides posting around two xG for and around one xG against – all point towards a game more likely to clear, rather than stay under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Hoffenheim
Corners in last 5 matches
Dortmund
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.59, which fits the way these sides have been playing. Hoffenheim’s last three saw 8, 10 and 4 corners respectively (4-4 at Augsburg, 7-3 vs Mainz, 3-1 at Leipzig), while Dortmund’s produced 10, 7 and 14 (5-5 vs Leverkusen, 2-5 at Stuttgart, 11-3 vs Hamburg). That recent pattern, with Dortmund often forcing high pressure and Hoffenheim relying on wide attacks, supports a corners prediction close to the 9–10 range, suggesting a steady flow of set‑pieces rather than an extreme outlier.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Hoffenheim
Shots in last 5 matches
Dortmund
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 24.62 also feels realistic given both clubs’ recent numbers. Hoffenheim’s last three games featured 30, 25 and 22 total shots, while Dortmund’s produced 25, 18 and 28. With both sides’ xG around 1.6–1.95 for and roughly 1.1–1.6 against, a shots prediction in the mid‑20s makes sense: enough attempts for an open contest, but not an all‑out shooting gallery.

Final Prediction

Dortmund have the edge through better form, a stronger defensive record and more reliable finishing, which explains their 44.0% win probability despite playing away. Hoffenheim’s attacking xG hints they can trouble the visitors, but their inability to keep clean sheets could prove decisive. The key factor to watch will be how Hoffenheim’s leaky back line copes with Dortmund’s efficient front line over 90 minutes.

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