Bundesliga 2025-2026: Hoffenheim vs Freiburg Prediction - 14 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Hoffenheim

Home Team
65%
VS

Freiburg

Away Team
17%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 65%
Under 2.5: 35%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 26.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 21 17 3 1 79 19 60 54
2 Dortmund 21 14 6 1 43 20 23 48
3 Hoffenheim 21 13 3 5 44 28 16 42
4 RB Leipzig 21 12 3 6 40 28 12 39
5 Stuttgart 21 12 3 6 38 28 10 39
6 Leverkusen 20 11 3 6 39 27 12 36
7 Freiburg 21 8 6 7 32 33 -1 30
8 Ein Frankfurt 21 7 7 7 41 46 -5 28
9 Union Berlin 21 6 7 8 26 34 -8 25
10 FC Koln 21 6 5 10 30 34 -4 23
11 Hamburg 20 5 7 8 21 29 -8 22
12 M'gladbach 21 5 7 9 25 34 -9 22
13 Augsburg 21 6 4 11 24 39 -15 22
14 Mainz 21 5 6 10 25 33 -8 21
15 Wolfsburg 21 5 4 12 29 44 -15 19
16 Werder Bremen 21 4 7 10 22 39 -17 19
17 St Pauli 21 4 5 12 20 35 -15 17
18 Heidenheim 21 3 4 14 19 47 -28 13

Recent Trends

Hoffenheim L W W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 0)

Freiburg W L W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hoffenheim

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.46
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.08
# Clean Sheets: 2

Freiburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.23
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.14
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Hoffenheim are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 65.0% chance of victory against Freiburg’s 17.0%, and the draw at 18.0%. Sitting 3rd in the Bundesliga on 42 points, Hoffenheim are firmly in the Champions League race, while 7th-placed Freiburg (30 points) are pushing for Europe but lack the same consistency. The model also leans towards an open match, with an over 2.5 prediction at 65.0% and both teams expected to score (60.0% goal probability).

Match Analysis

Hoffenheim come into this clash in strong league form despite a recent 1-5 setback away to leaders Bayern Munich. Either side of that defeat, they beat Union Berlin 3-1 at home and Werder Bremen 2-0 away, showing they can both blow teams away and manage controlled wins. Over their last five games they’ve averaged 3.2 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded, backed by healthy underlying numbers of 2.46 expected goals created and just 1.08 xG conceded, plus two clean sheets. That points to a side attacking with confidence but also generally solid at the back. Freiburg’s recent run has been more mixed but competitive: a tight 1-0 home win over Werder Bremen, a narrow 0-1 loss at Stuttgart, and a 2-1 victory against FC Köln. Across their last five, they are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with 1.228 xG for and 2.144 xG against. That gap between chances created and chances allowed suggests they tend to be second best in the balance of play and rely on efficiency rather than dominance. Coming up against one of the league’s most in-form attacks, that defensive vulnerability could be exposed.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Hoffenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours an over 2.5 prediction with a 65.0% probability, and the recent scorelines support this. Two of Hoffenheim’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (1-5 vs Bayern, 3-1 vs Union Berlin), with only the 2-0 at Werder Bremen falling under. Freiburg have had two under 2.5 results (1-0 vs Bremen, 0-1 at Stuttgart) and one over (2-1 vs Köln). With Hoffenheim averaging 3.2 scored and 0.6 conceded, and Freiburg allowing 2.0 goals per game, plus both teams’ xG profiles pointing to more chances for Hoffenheim especially, the balance leans clearly towards another goal-heavy game rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Hoffenheim
Corners in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.84, suggesting a moderate but not extreme count in the corners prediction. Hoffenheim’s last three games produced 11, 13 and 13 total corners respectively, reflecting their front-foot style that generates and concedes plenty of deliveries into the box. Freiburg’s last three totals were 12, 8 and 10 corners, again showing reasonably open contests. With both sides inclined to attack and cross rather than sit deep, predicted corners just under double digits to low double digits fits the pattern of their recent matches.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Hoffenheim
Shots in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots for this game is 26.43, which fits well with both teams’ recent profiles and makes this a strong shots prediction for an active match. Hoffenheim’s last three have seen them involved in games with 36, 25 and 38 total shots, while Freiburg’s produced 24, 29 and 32 attempts. Those numbers, combined with Hoffenheim’s strong xG of 2.46 per game and Freiburg regularly facing over 17 shots, indicate that a high volume of efforts on goal is likely, in line with the expected shots figure.

Final Prediction

Hoffenheim’s sharper attack, stronger recent xG numbers and higher league position give them a clear edge at home, justifying the 65.0% win probability. Freiburg have shown they can scrap and keep games tight, but their tendency to concede more chances than they create is a concern against such a free-scoring opponent. A key factor to watch will be whether Freiburg’s defence can withstand Hoffenheim’s sustained pressure, or if the hosts’ attacking rhythm quickly tilts the match in their favour.

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