Bundesliga 2025-2026: Hoffenheim vs Mainz Prediction - 4 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Hoffenheim

Home Team
61%
VS

Mainz

Away Team
19%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 26.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 27 22 4 1 97 25 72 70
2 Dortmund 27 18 7 2 58 28 30 61
3 Stuttgart 27 16 5 6 56 36 20 53
4 RB Leipzig 27 15 5 7 53 35 18 50
5 Hoffenheim 27 15 5 7 54 39 15 50
6 Leverkusen 27 13 7 7 52 36 16 46
7 Ein Frankfurt 27 10 8 9 50 51 -1 38
8 Freiburg 27 10 7 10 39 44 -5 37
9 Union Berlin 27 8 7 12 31 46 -15 31
10 Augsburg 27 9 4 14 33 50 -17 31
11 Mainz 27 7 9 11 33 42 -9 30
12 Hamburg 27 7 9 11 31 40 -9 30
13 M'gladbach 27 7 8 12 33 46 -13 29
14 Werder Bremen 27 7 7 13 30 47 -17 28
15 FC Koln 27 6 8 13 38 47 -9 26
16 St Pauli 27 6 6 15 24 44 -20 24
17 Wolfsburg 27 5 6 16 35 57 -22 21
18 Heidenheim 27 3 6 18 27 61 -34 15

Recent Trends

Hoffenheim L D W L D

  • Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs St Pauli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 2)

Mainz W W D D D

  • Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hoffenheim

xG (avg) 2.07
xGA (avg) 0.88
Clean Sheets 0

Mainz

xG (avg) 1.84
xGA (avg) 1.83
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Hoffenheim are favoured to take all three points here, with a 61.0% probability of a home win against a Mainz side given just a 19.0% chance, and a 20.0% chance of a draw. Sitting 5th on 50 points and firmly in the Champions League race, Hoffenheim host 11th-placed Mainz, who are on 30 points and looking upwards rather than over their shoulder. The game leans towards goals: the model points to an over 2.5 prediction with a 59.0% probability, alongside a 58.0% chance that both teams find the net.

Match Analysis

Hoffenheim arrive from a wildly mixed trio of results: a 4–2 away win at bottom club Heidenheim, a frustrating 1–1 home draw with Wolfsburg despite a 21–4 shot and 16–4 corner dominance, and a bruising 0–5 defeat at RB Leipzig. Across the last five matches, they’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded, underpinned by strong underlying numbers – 2.068 expected goals (xG) for and only 0.882 xG against per game – suggesting that even when results wobble, their process remains robust. Mainz, 11th and still in the mid-table traffic jam, come in on a strong run: back‑to‑back wins over Eintracht Frankfurt (2–1) and Werder Bremen (2–0), followed by a 2–2 draw at home to high‑flying Stuttgart. They have 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average over their last five, but the xG tells a more balanced story: 1.838 xG for and 1.83 xG against per match. That points to open, evenly contested games, with Mainz creating enough but also allowing chances, which could be costly away to one of the league’s more efficient attacks.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Hoffenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
Mainz
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 59.0% looks justified. Two of Hoffenheim’s last three league games went over 2.5 goals (4–2 vs Heidenheim, 5–0 vs Leipzig against them), with only the 1–1 versus Wolfsburg staying under. Mainz have been similarly open: all three of their recent matches – 2–1, 2–0, 2–2 – produced at least two goals, with two of them clearing the 2.5 line. With Hoffenheim averaging 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded and producing 2.068 xG per game, and Mainz generating 1.838 xG, this has all the ingredients for a high‑scoring contest rather than an under 2.5 battle.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Hoffenheim
Corners in last 5 matches
Mainz
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 10.16, which fits neatly with how both teams have been playing. Hoffenheim’s last three produced corner counts of 3–4, 16–4 and 3–1, highlighting that at home in particular they can rack up a huge number of set-piece situations when they dominate territory. Mainz’s recent games have seen 5–3, 4–9 and 5–6 in corners, again pointing to open, end‑to‑end patterns rather than cagey affairs. As a corners prediction, a total around 10 makes sense for two sides that like to attack and are willing to commit numbers forward.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Hoffenheim
Shots in last 5 matches
Mainz
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 26.05 for the match aligns well with recent data. Hoffenheim have taken 8, 21 and 16 shots in their last three, while restricting opponents to 14, 4 and 8; at home, that 21–4 split against Wolfsburg underlines their ability to pin teams back. Mainz, meanwhile, have posted 8, 11 and 18 shots, while allowing 12, 16 and 11, suggesting a readiness to trade chances. This shots prediction matches the xG profile: both sides create comfortably over 1.8 xG per game recently, so we should see a healthy tally of efforts on goal.

Final Prediction

Hoffenheim’s edge comes from their superior league position, stronger attacking metrics and home‑field dominance in both shots and corners. Mainz’s recent upturn means this should not be straightforward, but their tendency to allow chances plays into Hoffenheim’s strengths. The key factor to watch will be whether Mainz can withstand Hoffenheim’s sustained pressure in the final third, especially from wide areas and set pieces.

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