Bundesliga 2025-2026: Hoffenheim vs St Pauli Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Hoffenheim

Home Team
89%
VS

St Pauli

Away Team
5%
Draw: 7%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 24.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 23 19 3 1 85 21 64 60
2 Dortmund 23 15 7 1 49 22 27 52
3 Hoffenheim 23 14 4 5 49 30 19 46
4 Stuttgart 23 13 4 6 44 32 12 43
5 RB Leipzig 23 12 5 6 44 32 12 41
6 Leverkusen 22 12 3 7 43 28 15 39
7 Freiburg 23 9 6 8 34 37 -3 33
8 Ein Frankfurt 23 8 7 8 46 49 -3 31
9 Union Berlin 23 7 7 9 29 37 -8 28
10 Augsburg 23 8 4 11 28 41 -13 28
11 Hamburg 22 6 8 8 25 32 -7 26
12 FC Koln 23 6 6 11 33 39 -6 24
13 Mainz 23 5 7 11 26 38 -12 22
14 M'gladbach 23 5 7 11 26 39 -13 22
15 Wolfsburg 23 5 5 13 33 49 -16 20
16 St Pauli 23 5 5 13 22 40 -18 20
17 Werder Bremen 23 4 7 12 23 44 -21 19
18 Heidenheim 23 3 5 15 22 51 -29 14

Recent Trends

Hoffenheim D W L W W

  • Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 0)

St Pauli W L W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hoffenheim

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.48
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.10
# Clean Sheets: 2

St Pauli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.10
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.12
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Hoffenheim are clear favourites, with an 89.0% probability of a home win against a St Pauli side given just a 5.0% chance, and the draw at 7.0%. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 54.0% probability. In the table, Hoffenheim sit 3rd with 46 points and a +19 goal difference, while St Pauli are 16th on 20 points and a -18 goal difference, fighting to avoid relegation.

Match Analysis

Hoffenheim’s last three league games underline why they are pushing for the Champions League spots. They swept Freiburg 3-0 at home with a dominant 25–13 shot count, drew 2-2 away at FC Köln in a lively contest, and only came unstuck in a 1-5 defeat at Bayern Munich, where they were out-shot 9–27. Over the last five matches, they have averaged 3.2 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded, backed up by strong underlying numbers of 2.48 expected goals (xG) created and 1.096 xG allowed per game, plus two clean sheets. St Pauli’s recent form has been more erratic, fitting their position near the relegation places. They’ve picked up two important home wins – 2-1 against Werder Bremen and 2-1 against Stuttgart – but were heavily beaten 0-4 away to Leverkusen. Their advanced metrics over the last five games (0.8 goals scored, 2.2 conceded on average, with 1.102 xG for and 2.116 xG against, and no clean sheets) suggest they are regularly second-best and have to work hard for every chance they create.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Hoffenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 54.0% is supported by recent scorelines. Two of Hoffenheim’s last three matches (2-2 vs Köln, 1-5 vs Bayern) went over 2.5 goals, with only the 3-0 win versus Freiburg narrowly staying at exactly three goals but still under the 2.5 line. For St Pauli, two of their last three (2-1 vs Bremen, 0-4 vs Leverkusen, 2-1 vs Stuttgart) also finished over 2.5. Given Hoffenheim’s average of 3.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded and St Pauli’s 0.8 scored and 2.2 conceded, combined with both sides’ xG profiles, the balance leans slightly towards over 2.5 rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Hoffenheim
Corners in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 10.03, pointing to a reasonably open contest without being frantic. Hoffenheim’s last three games tallied 13, 12 and 11 total corners respectively (10-3 vs Köln, 6-6 vs Freiburg, 3-8 vs Bayern), showing they consistently play in matches with plenty of attacking phases and wide play, which supports a positive corners prediction. St Pauli’s last three produced 6, 11 and 10 corners (1-5 vs Bremen, 3-8 vs Leverkusen, 5-5 vs Stuttgart), suggesting that when they’re under pressure they concede plenty of corners, in line with the model’s predicted corners around the 10-mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Hoffenheim
Shots in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 24.55 total efforts, which fits well with the recent data. Hoffenheim’s last three matches have seen them in games with 27, 38 and 36 total shots (18-9 vs Köln, 25-13 vs Freiburg, 9-27 vs Bayern), showing they either create a volume of chances or allow them when stretched. St Pauli’s recent figures (5-13 vs Bremen, 11-12 vs Leverkusen, 15-7 vs Stuttgart) add up to 18, 23 and 22 total shots, slightly below the expected shots number but trending upward in more open matches. Combined with Hoffenheim’s strong xG production, a mid-20s shot total looks realistic.

Final Prediction

Hoffenheim’s superior league position, much stronger goal difference, and impressive recent scoring form give them a clear edge over a St Pauli side still battling to stay up and regularly conceding over two goals per game. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Hoffenheim can impose their attacking rhythm; if they start fast, St Pauli’s fragile defensive stats suggest the home side could decide this early.

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