Bundesliga 2025-2026: Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart Prediction - 2 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Hoffenheim

Home Team
47%
VS

Stuttgart

Away Team
30%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 64%
No Goal: 36%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 26.4
Expected Spread: +0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 31 26 4 1 113 32 81 82
2 Dortmund 31 20 7 4 65 31 34 67
3 RB Leipzig 31 19 5 7 62 38 24 62
4 Stuttgart 31 17 6 8 63 43 20 57
5 Hoffenheim 31 17 6 8 61 45 16 57
6 Leverkusen 31 16 7 8 62 42 20 55
7 Ein Frankfurt 31 11 10 10 56 58 -2 43
8 Freiburg 31 12 7 12 44 52 -8 43
9 Augsburg 31 10 7 14 39 55 -16 37
10 Mainz 31 8 10 13 39 49 -10 34
11 M'gladbach 31 7 11 13 36 50 -14 32
12 Werder Bremen 31 8 8 15 36 54 -18 32
13 Union Berlin 31 8 8 15 35 55 -20 32
14 FC Koln 31 7 10 14 45 53 -8 31
15 Hamburg 31 7 10 14 34 50 -16 31
16 St Pauli 31 6 8 17 26 53 -27 26
17 Wolfsburg 31 6 7 18 41 66 -25 25
18 Heidenheim 31 5 7 19 35 66 -31 22

Recent Trends

Hoffenheim W W D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 5)

Stuttgart D L W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 5 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hoffenheim

xG (avg) 2.09
xGA (avg) 1.08
Clean Sheets 0

Stuttgart

xG (avg) 1.85
xGA (avg) 2.82
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Hoffenheim are narrowly favoured to take all three points, with a 47.0% chance of a home win against Stuttgart’s 30.0% and a 23.0% probability of a draw. The model points to an open contest with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 60.0% likelihood. With both sides locked on 57 points and sitting 4th (Stuttgart) and 5th (Hoffenheim) in the Bundesliga, this is a straight head‑to‑head for Champions League positioning.

Match Analysis

Hoffenheim arrive in strong form: back‑to‑back 2-1 wins over Hamburg (away) and Dortmund (home) followed by a 2-2 draw at Augsburg. They’ve shown resilience and late‑season sharpness, scoring exactly two goals in each of their last three outings and taking 15, 13 and 13 shots respectively. Even more encouraging is that their underlying numbers are better than the raw scorelines: across the last five matches they average 2.09 expected goals for and just 1.084 against, yet have conceded in every one of those games. Stuttgart’s recent run has been more chaotic. A 4-0 home demolition of Hamburg was followed by a wild 2-4 defeat at Bayern and then a frustrating 1-1 draw with Werder Bremen despite dominating chances. Over their last three, they have scored seven and conceded five, and across the last five games they average 2.6 goals scored and 2.6 conceded. The xG picture is more worrying defensively: 2.822 expected goals conceded per game, suggesting they are allowing too many good chances despite their attacking threat (1.848 xG for per match).

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Hoffenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% feels well supported by recent trends. Two of Hoffenheim’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (3, 3, 4 total goals), and all three contained at least three goals. Stuttgart have also seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (4-0, 2-4, 1-1). With Hoffenheim averaging 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded, and Stuttgart at 2.6 scored and 2.6 conceded over their last five, plus both sides’ xG tilting towards high‑chance football, under 2.5 looks less likely than another open affair.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Hoffenheim
Corners in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s corners prediction sits at 9.6 total corners, which matches how both sides have been playing. Hoffenheim’s last three produced corner totals of 13, 7 and 8 (they earned 9, 4 and 4), while Stuttgart’s games yielded 10, 14 and 16 corners (with Stuttgart taking 8, 3 and 14 themselves). Both teams like to attack the flanks and sustain pressure, so the predicted corners figure around the 9–10 mark fits a match where both will push hard for a top‑four place.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Hoffenheim
Shots in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.4, aligning well with what these teams have been generating. Hoffenheim have taken 15, 13 and 13 shots in their last three, while facing 12, 8 and 17. Stuttgart’s recent shot counts are 23, 11 and 20 for, against 9, 28 and 9. Given their strong attacking xG profiles, this shots prediction points to a game where both sides regularly work the goalkeepers and create enough volume to justify the over 2.5.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Hoffenheim wins by X goals. Negative = Stuttgart wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is very tight at +0.1 in favour of Hoffenheim, essentially calling them slight favourites at home. Recent scorelines back up the notion of a finely balanced contest: Hoffenheim are +2 on goal difference over their last three (6 scored, 4 conceded), while Stuttgart are +2 as well (7 scored, 5 conceded). With the home side marginally preferred by the odds and boasting the stronger recent defensive xG, the expected spread leans just enough towards Hoffenheim.

Final Prediction

Hoffenheim’s combination of home advantage, solid defensive underlying numbers and consistent two‑goal output gives them a slight edge over a more volatile but dangerous Stuttgart side. With Champions League places on the line and both attacks in free flow, the key factor to watch will be how well Stuttgart’s defence copes with sustained Hoffenheim pressure – that battle is likely to decide whether the hosts justify their favourite tag.

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