Bundesliga 2025-2026: Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen Prediction - 9 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Hoffenheim

Home Team
73%
VS

Werder Bremen

Away Team
13%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 27.7
Expected Spread: +1.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 32 26 5 1 116 35 81 83
2 Dortmund 32 20 7 5 65 32 33 67
3 RB Leipzig 32 19 5 8 63 42 21 62
4 Leverkusen 32 17 7 8 66 43 23 58
5 Stuttgart 32 17 7 8 66 46 20 58
6 Hoffenheim 32 17 7 8 64 48 16 58
7 Freiburg 32 12 8 12 45 53 -8 44
8 Ein Frankfurt 32 11 10 11 57 60 -3 43
9 Augsburg 32 11 7 14 42 56 -14 40
10 Mainz 32 9 10 13 41 50 -9 37
11 M'gladbach 32 8 11 13 37 50 -13 35
12 Hamburg 32 8 10 14 36 51 -15 34
13 Union Berlin 32 8 9 15 37 57 -20 33
14 FC Koln 32 7 11 14 47 55 -8 32
15 Werder Bremen 32 8 8 16 37 57 -20 32
16 Wolfsburg 32 6 8 18 42 67 -25 26
17 St Pauli 32 6 8 18 27 55 -28 26
18 Heidenheim 32 5 8 19 38 69 -31 23

Recent Trends

Hoffenheim D W W D L

  • Last Match: D vs Stuttgart (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 2)

Werder Bremen L D W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hoffenheim

xG (avg) 2.24
xGA (avg) 1.29
Clean Sheets 0

Werder Bremen

xG (avg) 1.22
xGA (avg) 1.67
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Hoffenheim are clear favourites at home, with a 73.0% chance of victory and an expected goal spread strongly in their favour. The model points towards a high-scoring afternoon, with an over 2.5 prediction at 62.0% probability. In the table, Hoffenheim sit 6th on 58 points, chasing the Champions League spots, while Werder Bremen are 15th on 32 points and still glancing nervously over their shoulders at the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Hoffenheim come into this one on a three-match unbeaten run, drawing 3-3 at home with Stuttgart before back‑to‑back 2-1 wins against Hamburg (away) and Dortmund (home). Those results underline a side that carries real attacking punch but can be vulnerable at the back: 7 goals scored and 5 conceded over the last three, with no clean sheets in their last five. The advanced numbers back this up – they’re averaging 2.238 expected goals for and only 1.288 expected goals against over the last five matches, suggesting they’re consistently creating more than they actually convert, while defensively they are more solid on xG than the raw goals against column suggests. Werder Bremen’s recent form is more uneven but not toothless: a 3-1 home win over Hamburg, a 1-1 draw away at Stuttgart, then a damaging 3-1 home defeat to Augsburg. They’ve scored 5 and conceded 5 across those three games, which fits their broader trend of 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average in the last five. However, their underlying figures are less reassuring: just 1.218 expected goals for versus a hefty 1.672 expected goals against. Bremen are living a little dangerously, giving up more quality chances than they create, which is a worrying profile when visiting one of the league’s better attacks.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Hoffenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
Werder Bremen
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction looks justified here, with a 62.0% probability of at least three goals. Two of Hoffenheim’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-3 vs Stuttgart, 2-1 vs Dortmund), while one of Werder’s last three has hit that mark (3-1 vs Hamburg), with the other two finishing with exactly two and four goals. Given Hoffenheim’s blend of 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game recently, combined with their strong 2.238 xG in attack and Bremen’s 1.672 xG conceded, the balance tilts clearly towards over rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Hoffenheim
Corners in last 5 matches
Werder Bremen
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 10.18 total corners, which fits the way these two have been playing. Hoffenheim’s last three have produced 9, 13 and 7 corners respectively, while Werder’s have seen 10, 16 and 10 – all fairly busy numbers for set-piece situations. With both sides willing to attack and Hoffenheim especially pushing high at home, the predicted corners total around the 10 mark looks well supported.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Hoffenheim
Shots in last 5 matches
Werder Bremen
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 27.66 suggests an open contest with plenty of efforts on goal. Hoffenheim’s last three games have seen shot totals of 36, 27 and 21, while Werder’s have produced 29, 29 and 29, underlining that both matches involving these teams tend to be shot‑heavy. That aligns neatly with the xG profiles: Hoffenheim’s strong attacking xG and Bremen’s tendency to allow chances make a high shots prediction entirely consistent.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Hoffenheim wins by X goals. Negative = Werder Bremen wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen with expected spread of +1.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Hoffenheim favoured by +1.15 goals, reflecting their superior form and underlying stats. Over the last three, Hoffenheim have a combined goal difference of +2 (7 scored, 5 conceded), while Bremen sit at 0 (5 scored, 5 conceded) despite often being second best on xG. When you marry that expected spread with a 73.0% home‑win probability and Hoffenheim’s more potent attack, the hosts are projected to win by at least a goal and are strong candidates to cover that margin.

Final Prediction

Hoffenheim’s edge comes from their far more convincing attacking numbers and their position in the table: they’re in a tight race for the top four, while Bremen are simply trying to survive and carry weaker defensive metrics. If Hoffenheim play to their recent xG level, Bremen’s back line could be stretched all afternoon; the key factor to watch will be whether Bremen can withstand the home side’s sustained pressure without collapsing under the volume of chances.

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