Bundesliga 2025-2026: Leverkusen vs Augsburg Prediction - 18 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Leverkusen

Home Team
65%
VS

Augsburg

Away Team
17%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 26.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 29 24 4 1 105 27 78 76
2 Dortmund 29 19 7 3 60 29 31 64
3 Stuttgart 29 17 5 7 60 38 22 56
4 RB Leipzig 29 17 5 7 56 36 20 56
5 Leverkusen 29 15 7 7 59 39 20 52
6 Hoffenheim 29 15 6 8 57 43 14 51
7 Ein Frankfurt 29 11 9 9 54 54 0 42
8 Freiburg 29 11 7 11 42 47 -5 40
9 Mainz 29 8 9 12 35 44 -9 33
10 Augsburg 29 9 6 14 36 53 -17 33
11 Union Berlin 29 8 8 13 33 50 -17 32
12 Hamburg 29 7 10 12 32 45 -13 31
13 FC Koln 29 7 9 13 43 50 -7 30
14 M'gladbach 29 7 9 13 35 49 -14 30
15 Werder Bremen 29 7 7 15 32 52 -20 28
16 St Pauli 29 6 7 16 25 50 -25 25
17 Wolfsburg 29 5 6 18 39 65 -26 21
18 Heidenheim 29 4 7 18 32 64 -32 19

Recent Trends

Leverkusen W W D D D

  • Last Match: W vs Dortmund (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 6 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Freiburg (Goals: 3 - 3)

Augsburg D D L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leverkusen

xG (avg) 2.80
xGA (avg) 1.22
Clean Sheets 1

Augsburg

xG (avg) 1.99
xGA (avg) 2.28
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Leverkusen are clear favourites at home, with a 65.0% chance of victory against an Augsburg side given just a 17.0% win probability (draw at 18.0%). Sitting 5th with 52 points and chasing the Champions League spots, Leverkusen are expected to have too much for 10th-placed Augsburg on 33 points. The model leans towards an attacking game with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 55.0% and both teams likely to get on the scoresheet (goal probability 59.0%).

Match Analysis

Leverkusen come into this on a strong run: a statement 1-0 away win at Dortmund, a wild 6-3 home victory over Wolfsburg, and a 3-3 draw away at Heidenheim. Seven points from nine, with 10 goals scored across the last two matches, underline their attacking power, but also hint at some defensive looseness. The underlying numbers back this up: over the last five games they average 2.6 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded, with xG of 2.796 for and 1.222 against – figures that suggest sustained territorial dominance and chance creation. Augsburg, by contrast, look more fragile. They are winless in their last three: 2-2 at home to Hoffenheim, 1-1 away at Hamburg, and a heavy 5-2 home defeat to Stuttgart. They’ve been consistently second-best defensively, conceding at least twice in two of those three, and their recent averages tell the same story: just 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded per game over the last five, with xG of 1.986 for and 2.28 against. Augsburg are creating some chances but are giving up too many good opportunities, a dangerous mix away to a free-scoring Leverkusen.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Leverkusen
Goals in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for an over 2.5 prediction at 55.0%, and the recent scorelines support that call. Two of Leverkusen’s last three matches have gone comfortably over 2.5 goals (6-3 vs Wolfsburg, 3-3 vs Heidenheim), while Augsburg have seen two of their last three also clear that line (2-2 vs Hoffenheim, 2-5 vs Stuttgart), with only the 1-1 in Hamburg staying under. With Leverkusen averaging 2.6 goals scored and Augsburg conceding 1.8, and both sides’ xG profiles (2.796 vs 2.28 conceded) pointing to open games, backing over rather than under 2.5 looks logical.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Leverkusen
Corners in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction stands at 9.32 total, pointing to a moderately high count. Leverkusen’s last three have been lively on that front: 10 corners at Dortmund (5-5), a huge 14 against Wolfsburg (12-2), and 7 at Heidenheim (5-2) – a team that piles on pressure, especially at home. Augsburg’s recent games have been more modest – 8 vs Hoffenheim (4-4), 11 at Hamburg (2-9), and 7 vs Stuttgart (2-5) – but they do tend to concede territory and thus corners against stronger opponents, which fits with the predicted corners number here.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Leverkusen
Shots in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.66, which aligns with both teams’ recent patterns. Leverkusen’s last three matches have produced 25 shots at Dortmund (11-14), 36 against Wolfsburg (25-11), and 23 at Heidenheim (14-9), reflecting a side that regularly racks up attempts. Augsburg have seen 30 shots vs Hoffenheim (17-13), 36 at Hamburg (18-18), and 26 vs Stuttgart (13-13), so a shots prediction in the high-20s feels realistic. Combined with their xG figures, this suggests a game with frequent efforts on goal, even if Leverkusen’s finishing quality should be the key difference.

Final Prediction

Leverkusen’s superior form, stronger attacking metrics and home advantage give them a clear edge over an Augsburg side that is conceding too many chances and struggling for wins. With both teams’ recent games trending high in goals, shots and corners, this should be an entertaining encounter. The main factor to watch will be whether Augsburg’s shaky defence can withstand Leverkusen’s relentless pressure for 90 minutes.

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