Bundesliga 2025-2026: Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Prediction - 14 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Leverkusen

Home Team
2%
VS

Bayern Munich

Away Team
95%
Draw: 3%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 28.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 25 21 3 1 92 24 68 66
2 Dortmund 25 16 7 2 53 26 27 55
3 Hoffenheim 25 15 4 6 53 33 20 49
4 Stuttgart 25 14 5 6 50 34 16 47
5 RB Leipzig 25 14 5 6 48 34 14 47
6 Leverkusen 25 13 5 7 48 32 16 44
7 Ein Frankfurt 25 9 8 8 48 49 -1 35
8 Freiburg 25 9 7 9 37 42 -5 34
9 Augsburg 25 9 4 12 31 43 -12 31
10 Hamburg 25 7 8 10 28 36 -8 29
11 Union Berlin 25 7 7 11 30 42 -12 28
12 M'gladbach 25 6 7 12 28 43 -15 25
13 Werder Bremen 25 6 7 12 29 45 -16 25
14 FC Koln 25 6 6 13 34 43 -9 24
15 Mainz 25 5 9 11 29 41 -12 24
16 St Pauli 25 6 6 13 23 40 -17 24
17 Wolfsburg 25 5 5 15 34 55 -21 20
18 Heidenheim 25 3 5 17 24 57 -33 14

Recent Trends

Leverkusen D W D L W

  • Last Match: D vs Freiburg (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 4 - 0)

Bayern Munich W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Dortmund (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 5 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leverkusen

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.20
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.08
# Clean Sheets: 2

Bayern Munich

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.57
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.68
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Bayern Munich, top of the Bundesliga on 66 points, are overwhelming favourites here with a huge 95.0% win probability away at 6th‑placed Leverkusen, who are on 44 points. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 58.0% and both teams expected to score (62.0% chance of at least one goal in the game). On paper, this is first versus sixth, but the numbers make it look much more one‑sided than the table suggests.

Match Analysis

Leverkusen come into this clash unbeaten in their last three but with mixed performances: a 3-3 thriller at Freiburg, a tight 1-0 win away at Hamburg, and a 1-1 home draw with Mainz. They’ve shown both sides of their character – chaotic and open at Freiburg, controlled and efficient in Hamburg, then slightly frustrated at home against Mainz despite a corners and shots edge. Over the last five, they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, backed by strong underlying numbers (2.202 xG for and just 1.084 xG against), suggesting a side generally creating enough to compete. Bayern’s form is far more ruthless: three straight wins, all by multi-goal totals – 4-1 at home to M’gladbach, and back‑to‑back 3-2 victories against Dortmund (away) and Eintracht Frankfurt (home). They’re scoring in bunches, averaging 3.2 goals per game over their last five, with 2.566 xG for and 1.680 xG against. That profile screams high‑tempo, attacking football, and while they do give opponents chances, their firepower usually overwhelms any defensive wobble. Leverkusen’s more balanced metrics may keep them competitive in spells, but Bayern’s relentlessness is the clear difference-maker.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Leverkusen
Goals in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to an over 2.5 prediction with a 58.0% probability, and recent scorelines back that up. Two of Leverkusen’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-3 vs Freiburg, 1-1 vs Mainz, 1-0 vs Hamburg), while all three of Bayern’s have landed over 2.5 (4-1, 3-2, 3-2). With Leverkusen averaging 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, and Bayern at 3.2 scored and 1.2 conceded, plus both teams’ xG figures comfortably above 2.0 for, an open and high‑scoring game looks more likely than a cagey, under 2.5 contest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Leverkusen
Corners in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.25, hinting at a fairly busy afternoon from wide areas. Leverkusen’s last three have produced 7, 9 and 8 total corners respectively, with them often edging the count (7-2 at Hamburg, 6-2 vs Mainz), which fits a side that builds attacks patiently but does get to the byline. Bayern’s recent games have seen 8, 7 and 10 corners in total, reflecting their aggressive, front-foot approach. That aligns well with a corners prediction just above nine, as both sides like to push their full-backs high and sustain pressure in the final third.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Leverkusen
Shots in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game sit at 28.29, which matches the attacking profiles on show. Leverkusen’s last three outings saw combined shot totals of 38, 24 and 20, while Bayern’s produced 28, 24 and 33 – consistently high-volume contests. Those numbers, married to Bayern’s 2.566 xG for and Leverkusen’s 2.202 xG for over the last five, support a shots prediction near the 30 mark, with Bayern likely to lead the count but Leverkusen contributing enough attempts to keep the game alive.

Final Prediction

Bayern’s edge comes from sheer offensive power and recent form: 21 wins from 25 league games, 92 goals scored, and three straight high‑intensity victories. Leverkusen’s underlying numbers suggest they won’t be pushovers, but sustaining defensive concentration for 90 minutes against this Bayern attack is a huge ask. The key factor to watch will be whether Leverkusen’s structure and xG‑solid defence can absorb Bayern’s waves of pressure long enough to keep this from turning into another statement win for the league leaders.

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