Bundesliga 2025-2026: Leverkusen vs Freiburg Prediction - 26 Oct 2025
Result | Under-Over 2.5
Leverkusen
Home Team
79%
VS
Freiburg
Away Team
9%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5:
58%
Under 2.5:
42%
Goal:
58%
No Goal:
42%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 4 | 23 | 21 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Stuttgart | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Dortmund | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Koln | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Ein Frankfurt | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Union Berlin | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | Freiburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Hamburg | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Wolfsburg | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Mainz | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Heidenheim | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 3 |
Recent Trends
Leverkusen
- Last Match: vs Mainz (Goals: 4 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Union Berlin (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 1)
Freiburg
- Last Match: vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Stuttgart (Goals: 3 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Leverkusen
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.17
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.95
# Clean Sheets:
1
Freiburg
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.33
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.19
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
As Leverkusen prepares to face Freiburg, the odds favor the home team significantly, with a 79.0% probability of victory. The match is expected to be high-scoring, with a 58.0% chance of seeing more than 2.5 goals. Leverkusen currently holds the 5th position in the Bundesliga standings, eyeing a spot in the Champions League, while Freiburg sits in 10th place, looking to climb into the upper half of the table.
Match Analysis
Leverkusen is entering this matchup on a high note with a three-game winning streak. Their recent performances include a thrilling 4-3 away victory against Mainz, a solid 2-0 home win over Union Berlin, and a 2-1 away triumph against St Pauli. This winning streak highlights their attacking prowess, averaging 1.75 goals per game in their last five outings while maintaining a solid defense with an average of just 1.0 goal conceded. Their expected goals metrics also indicate consistent offensive strength, with an average of 2.1675 expected goals scored per game.
Freiburg, on the other hand, has been unable to secure a win in their last three matches, drawing all three. They have managed to score in two of these games, ending with a 2-2 draw against Eintracht Frankfurt and a 1-1 draw with Hoffenheim, while holding M'gladbach to a goalless draw. Freiburg's average goals scored and conceded both stand at 1.33 over their last five matches, indicating a balanced but less aggressive approach compared to Leverkusen. Their expected goals and defensive metrics suggest they could struggle against Leverkusen's potent attack.
Final Prediction
Leverkusen's recent form and attacking capabilities provide them with a clear edge over Freiburg in this matchup. Their ability to score consistently and control the game tempo, coupled with their higher expected goals, positions them as strong favorites. Fans should keep an eye on Leverkusen's offensive dynamics, as their ability to break down defenses will likely be a decisive factor in securing the win.
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