Bundesliga 2025-2026: Leverkusen vs Hamburg Prediction - 16 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Leverkusen

Home Team
71%
VS

Hamburg

Away Team
14%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 27.4
Expected Spread: +1.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 33 27 5 1 117 35 82 86
2 Dortmund 33 21 7 5 68 34 34 70
3 RB Leipzig 33 20 5 8 65 43 22 65
4 Stuttgart 33 18 7 8 69 47 22 61
5 Hoffenheim 33 18 7 8 65 48 17 61
6 Leverkusen 33 17 7 9 67 46 21 58
7 Freiburg 33 12 8 13 47 56 -9 44
8 Ein Frankfurt 33 11 10 12 59 63 -4 43
9 Augsburg 33 12 7 14 45 57 -12 43
10 Mainz 33 9 10 14 42 53 -11 37
11 Hamburg 33 9 10 14 39 53 -14 37
12 Union Berlin 33 9 9 15 40 58 -18 36
13 M'gladbach 33 8 11 14 38 53 -15 35
14 FC Koln 33 7 11 15 48 58 -10 32
15 Werder Bremen 33 8 8 17 37 58 -21 32
16 Wolfsburg 33 6 8 19 42 68 -26 26
17 Heidenheim 33 6 8 19 41 70 -29 26
18 St Pauli 33 6 8 19 28 57 -29 26

Recent Trends

Leverkusen L W W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Dortmund (Goals: 1 - 0)

Hamburg W W L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leverkusen

xG (avg) 3.67
xGA (avg) 1.52
Clean Sheets 1

Hamburg

xG (avg) 1.00
xGA (avg) 3.00
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Leverkusen are clear favourites here, with a 71.0% probability of a home win against a Hamburg side given just a 14.0% chance, and a 15.0% likelihood of a draw. Sixth in the Bundesliga on 58 points, Leverkusen are pushing the European spots, while 11th‑placed Hamburg sit on 37 points and are still glancing nervously over their shoulders at the relegation battle. The model also points strongly towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 62.0%.

Match Analysis

Leverkusen come into this one with two impressive wins in their last three: a 4-1 demolition of RB Leipzig at home and a gritty 2-1 victory away at FC Köln, bookended by a 3-1 defeat at Stuttgart. Those results underline a high-variance but dangerous attacking side – they’ve scored seven goals across those three matches while showing they can dominate at home (23 shots to 14 vs Leipzig) and scrap out points on the road. Over the last five games, they are averaging 2.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, backed up by a huge 3.67 expected goals per match, suggesting they are consistently creating more than the scoreboard even shows. Hamburg, 11th in the table, have found some late-season life with back-to-back wins over Freiburg (3-2) and Eintracht Frankfurt (2-1), either side of a narrow 2-1 home defeat to Hoffenheim. They’ve scored six and conceded five in those three, which fits the broader pattern of an open, vulnerable team: over their last five, Hamburg average 1.4 goals scored but a worrying 2.4 conceded. Their advanced metrics are even more alarming defensively – they allow 3.004 expected goals per match and generate just 0.998 xG going forward, suggesting they are often outplayed and relying on efficiency rather than control.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Leverkusen
Goals in last 5 matches
Hamburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 62.0% looks well supported by recent form. All three of Leverkusen’s latest games went over 2.5 goals (4, 5 and 3 total goals), and all three of Hamburg’s matches also cleared that line (5, 3 and 3 goals). With Leverkusen averaging 2.6 scored and 1.6 conceded, and Hamburg at 1.4 scored and 2.4 conceded, plus Leverkusen’s 3.67 xG per game against Hamburg’s 3.004 xG conceded, the balance of evidence strongly tilts towards another match going over 2.5 rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Leverkusen
Corners in last 5 matches
Hamburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 10.03 total corners, which fits the recent numbers. Leverkusen’s last three have produced 13, 10 and 7 corners, while Hamburg’s have seen 6, 13 and 13 – both sides frequently involved in double‑digit totals. With Leverkusen’s front‑foot, shot-heavy approach and Hamburg often forced back and conceding plenty of set pieces, the predicted corners figure around ten looks realistic for another game with sustained attacking phases.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Leverkusen
Shots in last 5 matches
Hamburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total for this game is 27.45, and the data backs a busy afternoon for both goalkeepers. Leverkusen’s last three matches have seen combined shot counts of 26, 37 and 33, while Hamburg’s have produced 19, 17 and 27 efforts. Given Leverkusen’s strong xG profile (3.67 per game) and Hamburg’s tendency to allow chances (3.004 xG conceded), a shots prediction in the high‑20s matches the pattern of a game where the home side in particular will pepper the goal.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Leverkusen wins by X goals. Negative = Hamburg wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Leverkusen vs Hamburg with expected spread of +1.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Leverkusen vs Hamburg
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Leverkusen -1.22, meaning the expected spread has the hosts winning by just over a goal on average. Over the last three matches, Leverkusen have a goal difference of +1 (7 scored, 6 conceded), while Hamburg sit at +1 as well (6 for, 5 against), but the underlying metrics are far more tilted towards Leverkusen’s attacking power and Hamburg’s defensive fragility. Combined with a 71.0% home‑win probability, the expected spread of -1.22 for Leverkusen is consistent with a likely two-goal victory margin if they take their chances.

Final Prediction

Leverkusen’s superior league position, explosive attacking numbers and strong home performance against top‑four sides make them clear favourites against a Hamburg team that concedes too many chances. Hamburg’s recent mini‑revival suggests they can land a punch, but the structural gap in xG and defensive solidity favours the hosts. The key factor to watch will be whether Hamburg’s back line can withstand Leverkusen’s relentless shot volume over 90 minutes – if not, the scoreline could get away from them.

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