Bundesliga 2025-2026: Leverkusen vs Mainz Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Leverkusen

Home Team
75%
VS

Mainz

Away Team
12%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 26.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 23 19 3 1 85 21 64 60
2 Dortmund 23 15 7 1 49 22 27 52
3 Hoffenheim 23 14 4 5 49 30 19 46
4 Stuttgart 23 13 4 6 44 32 12 43
5 RB Leipzig 23 12 5 6 44 32 12 41
6 Leverkusen 22 12 3 7 43 28 15 39
7 Freiburg 23 9 6 8 34 37 -3 33
8 Ein Frankfurt 23 8 7 8 46 49 -3 31
9 Union Berlin 23 7 7 9 29 37 -8 28
10 Augsburg 23 8 4 11 28 41 -13 28
11 Hamburg 22 6 8 8 25 32 -7 26
12 FC Koln 23 6 6 11 33 39 -6 24
13 Mainz 23 5 7 11 26 38 -12 22
14 M'gladbach 23 5 7 11 26 39 -13 22
15 Wolfsburg 23 5 5 13 33 49 -16 20
16 St Pauli 23 5 5 13 22 40 -18 20
17 Werder Bremen 23 4 7 12 23 44 -21 19
18 Heidenheim 23 3 5 15 22 51 -29 14

Recent Trends

Leverkusen L W D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 0)

Mainz D L W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leverkusen

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.03
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.12
# Clean Sheets: 2

Mainz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.70
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.93
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Leverkusen are strong favourites at home with a 75.0% chance of victory, compared to just 12.0% for a Mainz upset and 13.0% for a draw. The model points to a home win in a relatively tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 47.0% probability. In the table, Leverkusen sit 6th on 39 points chasing the Champions League spots, while Mainz are 13th on 22 points and still looking nervously over their shoulder at the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Leverkusen’s recent form has been solid if slightly uneven: a 4-0 demolition of St Pauli at home was sandwiched between a 1-1 draw away at M’gladbach and a 1-0 defeat at Union Berlin. Those three games underline a pattern – they control matches (38 shots across the three) but don’t always turn that into goals, especially away from home. Over the last five matches they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, backed up by strong underlying numbers of 2.028 expected goals (xG) for and only 1.122 xG against, plus two clean sheets. Mainz arrive in Leverkusen with mixed results: a deserved 2-0 home win over Augsburg, a heavy 4-0 loss at Dortmund, and a 1-1 home draw with Hamburg. They’ve shown they can create chances – 1.704 xG on average over their last five games and 1.4 goals scored – but they’re leaking heavily at the back, conceding 2.2 goals per game with a worrying 2.928 xG against in that same spell, and only one clean sheet. Away to a top‑six side that consistently outperforms opponents in both xG and shots, that defensive fragility could be decisive.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Leverkusen
Goals in last 5 matches
Mainz
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an under 2.5 outcome, with a 47.0% probability and a predicted result of “under_2_5”. Recent scorelines give a mixed picture: 2 out of Leverkusen’s last 3 games went under 2.5 goals (1-0 and 1-1), with only the 4-0 against St Pauli going comfortably over; Mainz had 2 out of 3 under (2-0 vs Augsburg, 1-1 vs Hamburg) and only the 4-0 defeat at Dortmund going over. Given Leverkusen’s solid defensive xG profile (1.122 conceded) and Mainz’s tendency to struggle against stronger sides, the over 2.5 prediction is less favoured here, with a controlled home win by a modest margin looking more likely than a goalfest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Leverkusen
Corners in last 5 matches
Mainz
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.47 total corners, suggesting a typical Bundesliga tempo rather than an extreme end-to-end battle. Leverkusen’s last three matches produced 9, 11 and 4 corners respectively (averaging 8), while Mainz’s games had 9, 9 and 8 corners (also close to that mark). Both teams have shown they can push forward – especially Mainz at home with 7 and 6 corners in two of their last three – but Leverkusen’s more controlled, possession-based style should keep the predicted corners in that medium range.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Leverkusen
Shots in last 5 matches
Mainz
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.61, which fits well with what both sides have produced recently. Leverkusen’s last three outings featured 16, 12 and 10 shots for, while Mainz recorded 17, 10 and 10, so a combined figure in the mid‑20s is a realistic shots prediction. With Leverkusen’s stronger xG numbers and home advantage, they are likely to take the lion’s share of those expected shots, while Mainz will look to make their fewer chances count on the break or from set pieces.

Final Prediction

Leverkusen’s superior league position, stronger recent xG profile, and home advantage give them a clear edge over a Mainz side that concedes too many good chances. If Leverkusen can maintain their defensive solidity while translating their regular shot volume into goals, they should justify the high home‑win probability. A key factor to watch will be how Mainz’s vulnerable back line copes with sustained pressure from Leverkusen’s attack.

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