Bundesliga 2025-2026: Leverkusen vs St Pauli Prediction - 14 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Leverkusen

Home Team
80%
VS

St Pauli

Away Team
9%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 22.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 21 17 3 1 79 19 60 54
2 Dortmund 21 14 6 1 43 20 23 48
3 Hoffenheim 21 13 3 5 44 28 16 42
4 RB Leipzig 21 12 3 6 40 28 12 39
5 Stuttgart 21 12 3 6 38 28 10 39
6 Leverkusen 20 11 3 6 39 27 12 36
7 Freiburg 21 8 6 7 32 33 -1 30
8 Ein Frankfurt 21 7 7 7 41 46 -5 28
9 Union Berlin 21 6 7 8 26 34 -8 25
10 FC Koln 21 6 5 10 30 34 -4 23
11 Hamburg 20 5 7 8 21 29 -8 22
12 M'gladbach 21 5 7 9 25 34 -9 22
13 Augsburg 21 6 4 11 24 39 -15 22
14 Mainz 21 5 6 10 25 33 -8 21
15 Wolfsburg 21 5 4 12 29 44 -15 19
16 Werder Bremen 21 4 7 10 22 39 -17 19
17 St Pauli 21 4 5 12 20 35 -15 17
18 Heidenheim 21 3 4 14 19 47 -28 13

Recent Trends

Leverkusen D W W L L

  • Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 4)

St Pauli W L D D L

  • Last Match: W vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Hamburg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leverkusen

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.36
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.00
# Clean Sheets: 1

St Pauli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.00
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.04
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Leverkusen are clear favourites at home, with an 80.0% probability of taking all three points against 17th‑placed St Pauli, who have just a 9.0% chance of an upset. Sixth in the table and chasing the Champions League spots, Leverkusen are strongly backed to win, while the model leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction despite Leverkusen’s attacking profile. The draw sits at 11.0%, underlining how one‑sided this looks on paper.

Match Analysis

Leverkusen come into this clash in solid form: unbeaten in their last three (two wins, one draw), including away victories at Eintracht Frankfurt (3-1) and a tight 1-0 home success over Werder Bremen. Even when they shared the points at M’gladbach (1-1), they were competitive in both shots and corners. Over the last five games, they’ve averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with even stronger underlying numbers of 2.356 expected goals for and just 1.004 against, pointing to a side consistently creating better chances than they allow. St Pauli, stuck in 17th and fighting to avoid the drop, have shown some resistance but remain fragile. Their last three outings brought a morale‑boosting 2-1 home win over Stuttgart, a 2-1 defeat at Augsburg, and a 1-1 draw with RB Leipzig. They’ve averaged only 1.0 goal scored and 1.6 conceded across their last five, backed up by 1.0 xG for and a worrying 2.044 xG against, suggesting opponents are regularly carving them open even when the scorelines are close.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Leverkusen
Goals in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to under 2.5 with a 49.0% probability, slightly edging the goal expectancy despite Leverkusen’s firepower. Two of Leverkusen’s last three matches finished under 2.5 goals (1-1 vs M’gladbach, 1-0 vs Werder Bremen), while one went over (3-1 vs Eintracht). St Pauli have seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (2-1 vs Stuttgart, 2-1 vs Augsburg) and one under (1-1 vs Leipzig), but their low scoring average and Leverkusen’s relatively tight defence make an under 2.5 outcome a reasonable over 2.5 prediction alternative to fade here.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Leverkusen
Corners in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total predicted corners for this match is 9.74, pointing to a medium corner count rather than a flurry. Leverkusen’s last three games produced 4, 11 and 10 total corners respectively, while St Pauli’s recent matches showed 10, 10 and 7, all fairly steady figures. With both sides capable of sustained spells of pressure but not all‑out wing bombardment, a 9–10 range fits the corners prediction and reflects measured, structured attacking rather than constant end‑to‑end chaos.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Leverkusen
Shots in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 22.93, suggesting a game with chances but not relentless shooting. Leverkusen’s last three outings saw combined shot totals of 19, 22 and 30, while St Pauli’s games produced 22, 29 and 19, all close to or above the expected shots line. Given Leverkusen’s higher xG (2.356) and St Pauli’s tendency to concede quality chances (2.044 xG against), the shots prediction points to Leverkusen generating the clearer opportunities even if the volume remains around the mid‑20s.

Final Prediction

Leverkusen’s superior league position, stronger form, and far better underlying numbers give them a clear edge, justifying the 80.0% win probability. St Pauli’s defensive vulnerability, especially in xG conceded, looks problematic against a side pushing for the top four. A key factor to watch will be whether St Pauli can withstand Leverkusen’s sustained pressure in the final third long enough to keep the game in the tight, under‑2.5 territory suggested by the model.

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