Bundesliga 2025-2026: Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg Prediction - 4 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Leverkusen

Home Team
60%
VS

Wolfsburg

Away Team
20%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 25.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 27 22 4 1 97 25 72 70
2 Dortmund 27 18 7 2 58 28 30 61
3 Stuttgart 27 16 5 6 56 36 20 53
4 RB Leipzig 27 15 5 7 53 35 18 50
5 Hoffenheim 27 15 5 7 54 39 15 50
6 Leverkusen 27 13 7 7 52 36 16 46
7 Ein Frankfurt 27 10 8 9 50 51 -1 38
8 Freiburg 27 10 7 10 39 44 -5 37
9 Union Berlin 27 8 7 12 31 46 -15 31
10 Augsburg 27 9 4 14 33 50 -17 31
11 Mainz 27 7 9 11 33 42 -9 30
12 Hamburg 27 7 9 11 31 40 -9 30
13 M'gladbach 27 7 8 12 33 46 -13 29
14 Werder Bremen 27 7 7 13 30 47 -17 28
15 FC Koln 27 6 8 13 38 47 -9 26
16 St Pauli 27 6 6 15 24 44 -20 24
17 Wolfsburg 27 5 6 16 35 57 -22 21
18 Heidenheim 27 3 6 18 27 61 -34 15

Recent Trends

Leverkusen D D D W D

  • Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Freiburg (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 1)

Wolfsburg L D L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leverkusen

xG (avg) 2.27
xGA (avg) 1.25
Clean Sheets 1

Wolfsburg

xG (avg) 0.84
xGA (avg) 2.70
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Leverkusen are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 60.0% probability of victory against a Wolfsburg side given just a 20.0% chance, and a 20.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards an open contest with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 54.0% probability. In the table, Leverkusen sit 6th on 46 points and are pushing for Europe, while 17th-placed Wolfsburg are deep in relegation trouble on 21 points.

Match Analysis

Leverkusen come into this on a run of three consecutive draws, but that doesn’t tell the full story: 3-3 at Heidenheim, 1-1 at home to Bayern Munich, and another 3-3 away to Freiburg. They are consistently creating chances – 14, 21 and 17 shots in those matches – and their last five games show an average of 1.6 goals scored from a strong 2.272 xG, suggesting they are regularly putting opponents under pressure. Defensively, however, they’ve been leaky, conceding 1.2 goals on average with only one clean sheet in that five-game stretch. Wolfsburg’s recent form is far more concerning. They’ve lost to Werder Bremen (0-1) and Hamburg (1-2) and only managed a 1-1 draw at Hoffenheim. Their attack has been blunt, with just 0.8 goals per game over the last five fixtures and an xG of only 0.844, while defensively they are allowing 2.2 goals on average and a hefty 2.696 expected goals against. That combination of low attacking output and high defensive vulnerability explains why they are 17th and why Leverkusen are clear favourites.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Leverkusen
Goals in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction stands at 54.0%, and the recent numbers back that up. All three of Leverkusen’s last matches went over 2.5 goals (6, 2, and 6 total goals), with two of those games producing six goals. Wolfsburg’s last three have been tighter – 1-0, 1-1, 1-2 – with only one over 2.5. Still, Leverkusen’s blend of 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, paired with high attacking xG, points towards another match where their firepower can push the total past the 2.5 line, especially against a defence conceding 2.2 goals on average.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Leverkusen
Corners in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 10.0 total, which fits with both sides’ recent patterns. Leverkusen’s last three saw 7, 5 and 7 total corners, while Wolfsburg’s produced 12, 20 and 10 – with the visitors often racking up corners even when chasing games (8 vs Bremen, 7 vs Hamburg). Given Leverkusen’s attacking intent and Wolfsburg’s need to respond from a lowly league position, a match played largely in the Wolfsburg half but with counter-attacking moments should comfortably land around the predicted corners mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Leverkusen
Shots in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this clash are 25.61 in total, in line with both teams’ recent shot volumes. Leverkusen’s last three outings featured 14, 21 and 17 attempts, while Wolfsburg recorded 11, 4 and 14. With Leverkusen generating a strong 2.272 xG per game and Wolfsburg facing 21 and 10 shots in two of their last three, a shots prediction around 25–26 feels realistic for a contest where the home side are likely to dominate territory and chances.

Final Prediction

Leverkusen’s advantage lies in their superior attacking metrics, higher league position, and Wolfsburg’s alarming defensive record and low xG in attack. If Leverkusen maintain their recent chance creation and tighten up slightly at the back, they should justify their status as clear favourites. The key factor to watch will be how Wolfsburg’s fragile defence copes with sustained pressure from a Leverkusen side that rarely struggles to create opportunities.

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