Bundesliga 2025-2026: M'gladbach vs Heidenheim Prediction - 4 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

M'gladbach

Home Team
56%
VS

Heidenheim

Away Team
22%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 24.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 27 22 4 1 97 25 72 70
2 Dortmund 27 18 7 2 58 28 30 61
3 Stuttgart 27 16 5 6 56 36 20 53
4 RB Leipzig 27 15 5 7 53 35 18 50
5 Hoffenheim 27 15 5 7 54 39 15 50
6 Leverkusen 27 13 7 7 52 36 16 46
7 Ein Frankfurt 27 10 8 9 50 51 -1 38
8 Freiburg 27 10 7 10 39 44 -5 37
9 Union Berlin 27 8 7 12 31 46 -15 31
10 Augsburg 27 9 4 14 33 50 -17 31
11 Mainz 27 7 9 11 33 42 -9 30
12 Hamburg 27 7 9 11 31 40 -9 30
13 M'gladbach 27 7 8 12 33 46 -13 29
14 Werder Bremen 27 7 7 13 30 47 -17 28
15 FC Koln 27 6 8 13 38 47 -9 26
16 St Pauli 27 6 6 15 24 44 -20 24
17 Wolfsburg 27 5 6 16 35 57 -22 21
18 Heidenheim 27 3 6 18 27 61 -34 15

Recent Trends

M'gladbach D W L W L

  • Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)

Heidenheim D L L L D

  • Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Stuttgart (Goals: 3 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

M'gladbach

xG (avg) 1.84
xGA (avg) 1.16
Clean Sheets 2

Heidenheim

xG (avg) 1.32
xGA (avg) 2.26
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

M’gladbach are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 56.0% win probability against Heidenheim’s 22.0% and a 22.0% chance of a draw. The model points to a home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction, despite both sides being involved in some recent high‑scoring contests. In the table, M’gladbach sit 13th on 29 points, while bottom‑club Heidenheim are 18th with just 15 points and staring at relegation.

Match Analysis

M’gladbach’s last three outings have been volatile but generally positive: a 3-3 derby draw away at FC Köln, a controlled 2-0 home win over St Pauli and a 1-4 defeat at Bayern where they still managed 10 shots. That run shows both their attacking threat and defensive fragility, yet the broader five‑game numbers are encouraging: 1.6 goals scored on average, only 0.8 conceded and two clean sheets, backed up by 1.842 xG created and just 1.164 xG allowed. For a side in the lower half, that’s the profile of a team trending upwards. Heidenheim, by contrast, are in deep trouble at the foot of the table. They’ve taken just one point from their last three – a wild 3-3 home draw with Leverkusen sandwiched between a 0-1 defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt and a 2-4 home loss to Hoffenheim. The advanced metrics underline why they are bottom: only 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average in the last five, with 1.316 xG for but a worrying 2.262 xG against and no clean sheets. They are regularly out‑created and rely on isolated moments rather than sustained pressure.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

M'gladbach
Goals in last 5 matches
Heidenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
Despite the attacking flashes, the model leans towards under 2.5 with a 49.0% probability. Two of M’gladbach’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-3 vs Köln, 1-4 vs Bayern) and one stayed under (2-0 vs St Pauli), while all three of Heidenheim’s recent games were over 2.5. The under 2.5 call is supported more by the medium‑term averages – M’gladbach conceding just 0.8 per game and Heidenheim scoring only 0.6, plus xG figures for both teams hovering around the 3-goal combined mark rather than regularly exploding past it, making this over 2.5 prediction less likely.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

M'gladbach
Corners in last 5 matches
Heidenheim
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a fairly standard game, with expected total corners at 9.13. M’gladbach’s recent corner counts (3, 2, 1 taken; 5, 2, 7 conceded) suggest they don’t relentlessly rack up set pieces, even when they attack. Heidenheim’s last three show a similar mid-range profile (4, 4, 2 won; 3, 5, 5 conceded), so the predicted corners tally around nine fits two sides who create chances but don’t constantly pin opponents back with waves of crosses.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

M'gladbach
Shots in last 5 matches
Heidenheim
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 24.9 suits the patterns of both teams. M’gladbach have taken 9, 10 and 10 shots in their last three while allowing 12, 8 and 18, which aligns with a match that should see chances at both ends. Heidenheim’s recent totals (8, 3, 9 for; 16, 12, 14 against) indicate they tend to be outshot, and the shots prediction reflects their weaker attacking output and the xG gap that has seen them concede far more than they create.

Final Prediction

M’gladbach’s stronger recent form, superior xG profile and home advantage give them a clear edge over a Heidenheim side leaking chances and rooted to 18th. The key factor to watch will be whether Heidenheim can withstand M’gladbach’s pressure without collapsing defensively, because if the hosts score first, the bottom club may not have the attacking punch to respond.

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