Bundesliga 2025-2026: M'gladbach vs Hoffenheim Prediction - 16 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

M'gladbach

Home Team
29%
VS

Hoffenheim

Away Team
48%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 63%
Under 2.5: 37%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 26.6
Expected Spread: -0.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 33 27 5 1 117 35 82 86
2 Dortmund 33 21 7 5 68 34 34 70
3 RB Leipzig 33 20 5 8 65 43 22 65
4 Stuttgart 33 18 7 8 69 47 22 61
5 Hoffenheim 33 18 7 8 65 48 17 61
6 Leverkusen 33 17 7 9 67 46 21 58
7 Freiburg 33 12 8 13 47 56 -9 44
8 Ein Frankfurt 33 11 10 12 59 63 -4 43
9 Augsburg 33 12 7 14 45 57 -12 43
10 Mainz 33 9 10 14 42 53 -11 37
11 Hamburg 33 9 10 14 39 53 -14 37
12 Union Berlin 33 9 9 15 40 58 -18 36
13 M'gladbach 33 8 11 14 38 53 -15 35
14 FC Koln 33 7 11 15 48 58 -10 32
15 Werder Bremen 33 8 8 17 37 58 -21 32
16 Wolfsburg 33 6 8 19 42 68 -26 26
17 Heidenheim 33 6 8 19 41 70 -29 26
18 St Pauli 33 6 8 19 28 57 -29 26

Recent Trends

M'gladbach L W D D L

  • Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Dortmund (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 1)

Hoffenheim W D W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Stuttgart (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

M'gladbach

xG (avg) 1.70
xGA (avg) 0.91
Clean Sheets 2

Hoffenheim

xG (avg) 1.80
xGA (avg) 1.83
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Hoffenheim are projected to take this one, with a 48.0% chance of an away win against just 29.0% for M’gladbach and 24.0% for the draw. The model leans towards a high‑scoring contest, with an over 2.5 prediction at 63.0% probability. In the table, Hoffenheim are flying in 5th on 61 points, while Gladbach sit down in 13th with 35 points.

Match Analysis

M’gladbach’s last three outings tell a mixed story. They stunned Dortmund 1–0 at home but followed that with a 1–3 defeat in Augsburg and a goalless draw away to Wolfsburg. The underlying numbers over the last five matches are more encouraging: 1.4 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded on average, backed up by 1.704 expected goals created and just 0.908 allowed, plus two clean sheets. That suggests a side more solid and balanced than their league position might indicate. Hoffenheim, by contrast, are in the thick of the European race and playing front‑foot football. They’ve taken seven points from their last three games: a 2–1 win in Hamburg, a breathless 3–3 draw with Stuttgart, and a tight 1–0 home win over Werder Bremen. Their recent profile is clear: 2.0 goals scored but 2.4 conceded on average in the last five, with xG figures (1.798 for, 1.83 against) pointing to open matches at both ends. Where Gladbach have tightened up, Hoffenheim are embracing risk, and that contrast is a key angle going into this game.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

M'gladbach
Goals in last 5 matches
Hoffenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
The model backs an over 2.5 prediction at 63.0%, expecting goals despite Gladbach’s recent low‑scoring scorelines. Two of M’gladbach’s last three have actually gone under 2.5 (1–0 v Dortmund, 0–0 at Wolfsburg), with only the 1–3 loss in Augsburg clearing the line. Hoffenheim are the opposite: two of their last three went over 2.5 (3–3 v Stuttgart, 2–1 at Hamburg), and their averages of 2.0 scored and 2.4 conceded, plus near‑two xG for and against, strongly support another game tipping over rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

M'gladbach
Corners in last 5 matches
Hoffenheim
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match is 9.0, pointing towards a moderate count rather than a barrage of set pieces. Gladbach’s last three saw corner totals of 4, 2 and 13, reflecting games that ranged from cagey to more stretched, while Hoffenheim’s produced 11, 9 and 13 – consistently high numbers as their attacking approach forces blocks and saves. That recent pattern, especially from Hoffenheim, underpins the corners prediction of around nine, with both teams likely to create pressure in wide areas.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

M'gladbach
Shots in last 5 matches
Hoffenheim
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.6, suggesting a lively encounter in front of goal. Gladbach’s recent matches saw combined shot counts of 31 (v Augsburg), 18 (v Dortmund) and 22 (v Wolfsburg), while Hoffenheim’s produced 26 (v Bremen), 36 (v Stuttgart) and 27 (v Hamburg). Those volumes, together with both sides’ xG figures close to or above 1.7 in attack, justify a shots prediction in the high‑20s for this one, matching the expected shots estimate.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = M'gladbach wins by X goals. Negative = Hoffenheim wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for M'gladbach vs Hoffenheim with expected spread of -0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for M'gladbach vs Hoffenheim
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at -0.33 in favour of Hoffenheim, meaning the expected spread slightly backs the away side to edge it. Recently, Gladbach are -2 on goal difference across their last three (2 scored, 4 conceded), while Hoffenheim are +2 (6 scored, 4 conceded) over the same span. That, paired with Hoffenheim’s higher league position and stronger win probability, explains why the model tilts the expected spread towards the visitors.

Final Prediction

Hoffenheim’s superior league standing, recent attacking output and slight statistical edge in the goal spread give them the nod as favourites, even away from home. The key factor to watch will be whether Gladbach’s improving defensive numbers can contain Hoffenheim’s free‑scoring forward line or whether the visitors’ attacking intent drags the game into the kind of open battle they usually thrive in.

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