Bundesliga 2025-2026: M'gladbach vs Leverkusen Prediction - 7 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

M'gladbach

Home Team
16%
VS

Leverkusen

Away Team
70%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 20 16 3 1 74 18 56 51
2 Dortmund 20 13 6 1 41 19 22 45
3 Hoffenheim 20 13 3 4 43 23 20 42
4 Stuttgart 20 12 3 5 37 26 11 39
5 RB Leipzig 20 11 3 6 38 27 11 36
6 Leverkusen 19 11 2 6 38 26 12 35
7 Freiburg 20 7 6 7 31 33 -2 27
8 Ein Frankfurt 20 7 6 7 40 45 -5 27
9 Union Berlin 20 6 6 8 25 33 -8 24
10 FC Koln 20 6 5 9 29 32 -3 23
11 Augsburg 20 6 4 10 24 37 -13 22
12 M'gladbach 20 5 6 9 24 33 -9 21
13 Hamburg 19 4 7 8 19 29 -10 19
14 Wolfsburg 20 5 4 11 28 42 -14 19
15 Werder Bremen 20 4 7 9 22 38 -16 19
16 Mainz 20 4 6 10 23 33 -10 18
17 St Pauli 20 3 5 12 18 34 -16 14
18 Heidenheim 20 3 4 13 19 45 -26 13

Recent Trends

M'gladbach D L D L W

  • Last Match: D vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Hamburg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 4 - 0)

Leverkusen W W L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

M'gladbach

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.65
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.06
# Clean Sheets: 2

Leverkusen

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.70
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.92
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Leverkusen are clear favourites here, with a 70.0% chance of taking all three points away at 12th‑placed M’gladbach, who have just 16.0% probability of a home win and 14.0% for a draw. The game leans towards being open: there is a 56.0% chance of over 2.5 goals, and both teams are more likely than not to score (58.0% probability of “goal”). In the table, Leverkusen sit 6th on 35 points, pushing towards the European places, while M’gladbach hover in mid‑table on 21 points.

Match Analysis

M’gladbach come into this with two draws and a defeat from their last three league matches. A 1–1 away draw at Werder Bremen and a 0–0 at Hamburg show some defensive tightening, but the 3–0 home loss to Stuttgart underlines how vulnerable they can be when pressed. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, yet their expected goals against (2.056 per match) suggests opponents are creating plenty of chances that could punish them more heavily. Leverkusen, by contrast, have won two of their last three, beating Eintracht Frankfurt 3–1 away and Werder Bremen 1–0 at home, with only a narrow 1–0 defeat at Hoffenheim breaking the run. Their recent attacking output is solid at 1.8 goals per game, backed by 1.702 expected goals, indicating a consistent ability to create. Defensively they concede 1.2 goals on average, but an expected 1.92 against shows they sometimes allow more opportunities than the scoreline suggests, which keeps the door slightly ajar for M’gladbach.

Final Prediction

Leverkusen’s stronger form, higher league position and more reliable attacking numbers give them a clear edge over an inconsistent M’gladbach side. The most intriguing factor to watch will be whether M’gladbach’s recent clean sheets can hold up against Leverkusen’s steady chance creation, or if the visitors turn their superiority into another high‑scoring away win.

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