Bundesliga 2025-2026: M'gladbach vs Mainz Prediction - 19 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

M'gladbach

Home Team
38%
VS

Mainz

Away Team
34%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 26.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 29 24 4 1 105 27 78 76
2 Dortmund 29 19 7 3 60 29 31 64
3 Stuttgart 29 17 5 7 60 38 22 56
4 RB Leipzig 29 17 5 7 56 36 20 56
5 Leverkusen 29 15 7 7 59 39 20 52
6 Hoffenheim 29 15 6 8 57 43 14 51
7 Ein Frankfurt 29 11 9 9 54 54 0 42
8 Freiburg 29 11 7 11 42 47 -5 40
9 Mainz 29 8 9 12 35 44 -9 33
10 Augsburg 29 9 6 14 36 53 -17 33
11 Union Berlin 29 8 8 13 33 50 -17 32
12 Hamburg 29 7 10 12 32 45 -13 31
13 FC Koln 29 7 9 13 43 50 -7 30
14 M'gladbach 29 7 9 13 35 49 -14 30
15 Werder Bremen 29 7 7 15 32 52 -20 28
16 St Pauli 29 6 7 16 25 50 -25 25
17 Wolfsburg 29 5 6 18 39 65 -26 21
18 Heidenheim 29 4 7 18 32 64 -32 19

Recent Trends

M'gladbach L D D W L

  • Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 4)

Mainz L W W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

M'gladbach

xG (avg) 1.35
xGA (avg) 1.02
Clean Sheets 1

Mainz

xG (avg) 1.90
xGA (avg) 1.65
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

M’gladbach are slight favourites at home, with a 38.0% probability of taking all three points against a Mainz side given a 34.0% chance, while the draw sits at 28.0%. The model leans towards a home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction (44.0% for over 2.5, so a marginal tilt to the under), suggesting a tight contest rather than a shoot-out. In the table, Mainz sit 9th on 33 points, while M’gladbach are down in 14th on 30 points and still looking over their shoulder.

Match Analysis

M’gladbach come into this on a three-game winless run (two draws and a defeat), but their performances have been competitive. A 0-1 loss away at RB Leipzig was narrow, followed by an open 2-2 at home to Heidenheim and a wild 3-3 draw at FC Köln. Those scorelines underline a team that can create chances but struggles to close games out. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with underlying numbers of 1.346 xG for and 1.024 xG against, plus one clean sheet – suggesting a side slightly better at controlling chances than the raw goals tally implies. Mainz arrive in better recent form, with two wins and one defeat in their last three. They edged Hoffenheim 2-1 away and Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 at home before a narrow 0-1 loss to Freiburg. Their last five games show 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average, backed by a more attacking xG profile: 1.902 xG for and 1.652 xG against, again with one clean sheet. Mainz are clearly creating a decent volume of opportunities but also leaving space at the back – a balance that could be tested by M’gladbach’s need for points at the bottom end of the table.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

M'gladbach
Goals in last 5 matches
Mainz
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s under 2.5 call goes against the recent goal-heavy pattern but is supported by only a moderate 44.0% probability for over 2.5. All three of M’gladbach’s latest games have gone over 2.5 goals (totals of 1, 4 and 6), while Mainz have seen two of their last three finish over 2.5 (3, 3 and 1). Still, the combined averages – 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded for M’gladbach, 1.4 and 1.4 for Mainz, with xG figures of 1.346/1.024 and 1.902/1.652 – point to a match that could just as easily lock into a tactical battle, backing a cautious under 2.5 prediction despite recent entertainment.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

M'gladbach
Corners in last 5 matches
Mainz
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.26 total, which fits a game where both teams attack but not relentlessly. M’gladbach’s last three have produced 4, 2 and 3 corners for them, against 11, 3 and 5 conceded – often allowing the opposition territory. Mainz have posted 6, 3 and 5 corners, conceding 4, 7 and 3, showing they can both apply and absorb pressure. With both sides preferring to build rather than constantly bombard the box, predicted corners just above nine looks realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

M'gladbach
Shots in last 5 matches
Mainz
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 26.47 hints at a reasonably busy afternoon for both goalkeepers without becoming a complete end-to-end shoot-out. M’gladbach have taken 15, 15 and 9 shots in their last three, while facing 24, 15 and 12 – a pattern of open games where they concede plenty of attempts. Mainz have attempted 10, 9 and 8 shots and allowed 8, 16 and 12. These numbers, together with their xG profiles, justify a shots prediction in the mid-20s, with Mainz slightly more efficient in turning chances into danger.

Final Prediction

M’gladbach’s slight edge comes from home advantage and slightly stronger defensive xG numbers, even if the table has Mainz higher. Mainz’s recent wins show they carry a real threat, but their openness without the ball could give the hosts just enough room to edge a tight, low-scoring encounter. The key factor to watch will be who controls the midfield tempo; whichever side can limit cheap shots against is likely to tilt this finely balanced fixture in their favour.

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