Bundesliga 2025-2026: M'gladbach vs St Pauli Prediction - 13 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

M'gladbach

Home Team
63%
VS

St Pauli

Away Team
18%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.5

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 25 21 3 1 92 24 68 66
2 Dortmund 25 16 7 2 53 26 27 55
3 Hoffenheim 25 15 4 6 53 33 20 49
4 Stuttgart 25 14 5 6 50 34 16 47
5 RB Leipzig 25 14 5 6 48 34 14 47
6 Leverkusen 25 13 5 7 48 32 16 44
7 Ein Frankfurt 25 9 8 8 48 49 -1 35
8 Freiburg 25 9 7 9 37 42 -5 34
9 Augsburg 25 9 4 12 31 43 -12 31
10 Hamburg 25 7 8 10 28 36 -8 29
11 Union Berlin 25 7 7 11 30 42 -12 28
12 M'gladbach 25 6 7 12 28 43 -15 25
13 Werder Bremen 25 6 7 12 29 45 -16 25
14 FC Koln 25 6 6 13 34 43 -9 24
15 Mainz 25 5 9 11 29 41 -12 24
16 St Pauli 25 6 6 13 23 40 -17 24
17 Wolfsburg 25 5 5 15 34 55 -21 20
18 Heidenheim 25 3 5 17 24 57 -33 14

Recent Trends

M'gladbach L W L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 1)

St Pauli D W W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

M'gladbach

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.75
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.58
# Clean Sheets: 1

St Pauli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.25
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.26
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Borussia Mönchengladbach are favoured to take all three points, with a 63.0% probability of a home win against a St Pauli side given just an 18.0% chance, and a 19.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 55.0% implied probability. In the current Bundesliga table, Gladbach sit 12th on 25 points, just one point and four places above 16th‑placed St Pauli in the relegation play‑off spot.

Match Analysis

Gladbach’s last three outings have been a mixed bag but show a team generally competitive. A 1-0 home win over Union Berlin underlined their ability to control a game at Borussia‑Park (21-6 shots, 6-2 corners), sandwiched between away defeats at Bayern (1-4) and Freiburg (1-2). Across those matches they’ve scored three and conceded six, but the underlying numbers over the last five games are steadier: 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average, with xG for at 1.75 and xG against at 1.582. That suggests they are consistently creating slightly more than they allow, even if results haven’t fully reflected it. St Pauli arrive with some momentum: unbeaten in three, with back‑to‑back wins over Werder Bremen (2-1) and away at high‑flying Hoffenheim (1-0), followed by a gritty 0-0 home draw with Eintracht Frankfurt. They’ve taken seven points from nine, but the stats hint at a team often on the back foot: in those three games they were outshot 5-13 vs Bremen, 11-20 vs Hoffenheim and 11-8 vs Frankfurt. Over their last five, they average just 1.0 goal scored but 2.2 conceded, with xG for at 1.246 and xG against a hefty 2.256. Two clean sheets show they can dig in, yet they generally allow more and better chances than they generate, which is a concern away to a side like Gladbach.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

M'gladbach
Goals in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for under 2.5 goals with a 55.0% edge, and the recent evidence backs that cagey outlook. Only one of Gladbach’s last three league games went over 2.5 goals (the 1-4 loss at Bayern), with the other two finishing 1-0 and 1-2. For St Pauli, two of their last three stayed under 2.5 (0-0 vs Frankfurt, 1-0 at Hoffenheim), with only the 2-1 win over Bremen clearing the line. Given Gladbach’s recent averages of 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, and St Pauli’s 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded, plus xG figures of 1.75 vs 1.246 in attack, the over 2.5 prediction is less convincing than an attritional under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

M'gladbach
Corners in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match is 9.57, pointing towards a fairly standard Bundesliga game rather than a set‑piece frenzy. Gladbach’s last three saw corner totals of 8 at Bayern (1-7), 8 vs Union (6-2) and 6 at Freiburg (3-3), typically around that 6–8 range. St Pauli’s matches have been slightly more volatile in this regard – 11 vs Frankfurt (6-5), 13 at Hoffenheim (3-10) and 6 vs Bremen (1-5) – but the pattern is clear: they often concede territory and allow opponents corners. The corners prediction of around 10 fits a game where Gladbach, as the more proactive home side, should rack up a decent number of attacks without it turning into end‑to‑end chaos.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

M'gladbach
Shots in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.5, which aligns with how both teams have been playing. Gladbach’s recent shot counts – 10 at Bayern, 21 vs Union, 12 at Freiburg – show a side capable of high volume at home, dovetailing with their 1.75 xG average in the last five matches. St Pauli, meanwhile, have been outshot heavily in two of their last three (13-5 vs Bremen, 20-11 vs Hoffenheim, 11-8 vs Frankfurt), in line with their higher xG against of 2.256. That makes the shots prediction of roughly 24–25 efforts logical: Gladbach should generate the lion’s share, with St Pauli relying on fewer, more selective attempts.

Final Prediction

Gladbach’s edge comes from stronger underlying numbers, home advantage and a more balanced profile between chances created and conceded, giving them that 63.0% win probability. St Pauli’s recent results are impressive but rest on a fragile base of allowing more shots and xG than they produce. The key factor to watch will be whether Gladbach can turn territorial dominance into clear chances early; if they do, St Pauli may struggle to sustain their recent unbeaten run.

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