Bundesliga 2025-2026: M'gladbach vs Union Berlin Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

M'gladbach

Home Team
36%
VS

Union Berlin

Away Team
40%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 25.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 23 19 3 1 85 21 64 60
2 Dortmund 23 15 7 1 49 22 27 52
3 Hoffenheim 23 14 4 5 49 30 19 46
4 Stuttgart 23 13 4 6 44 32 12 43
5 RB Leipzig 23 12 5 6 44 32 12 41
6 Leverkusen 22 12 3 7 43 28 15 39
7 Freiburg 23 9 6 8 34 37 -3 33
8 Ein Frankfurt 23 8 7 8 46 49 -3 31
9 Union Berlin 23 7 7 9 29 37 -8 28
10 Augsburg 23 8 4 11 28 41 -13 28
11 Hamburg 22 6 8 8 25 32 -7 26
12 FC Koln 23 6 6 11 33 39 -6 24
13 Mainz 23 5 7 11 26 38 -12 22
14 M'gladbach 23 5 7 11 26 39 -13 22
15 Wolfsburg 23 5 5 13 33 49 -16 20
16 St Pauli 23 5 5 13 22 40 -18 20
17 Werder Bremen 23 4 7 12 23 44 -21 19
18 Heidenheim 23 3 5 15 22 51 -29 14

Recent Trends

M'gladbach L L D D L

  • Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 3)

Union Berlin W L D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

M'gladbach

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.32
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.77
# Clean Sheets: 0

Union Berlin

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.70
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.43
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Union Berlin are slight favourites, with a 40.0% chance of winning compared to 36.0% for M’gladbach and a 24.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards an away win and an under 2.5 goals prediction (48.0% chance for under), pointing to a tight game between 9th‑placed Union (28 points) and 14th‑placed M’gladbach (22 points) in a congested Bundesliga mid‑table.

Match Analysis

M’gladbach come in on a poor run: two straight defeats away to Freiburg (1–2) and Eintracht Frankfurt (0–3), plus a respectable 1–1 home draw with Leverkusen. Across those three games they’ve scored just twice and conceded six, underlining why they sit 14th with a -13 goal difference. Their recent averages back this up: 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over the last five, with expected goals of 1.316 for and a worrying 1.772 against per match, and no clean sheets in that stretch. Union Berlin’s form is a little more solid, even if inconsistent. They edged Leverkusen 1–0 at home despite being outshot 8–16, lost an open 3–2 game away at Hamburg, and drew 1–1 at home with Eintracht Frankfurt while limiting them to just three shots. Over their last five matches they also average 1.2 goals scored, but concede 1.6, with a healthier attacking xG of 1.704 and a slightly better defensive xG conceded of 1.43. That profile – more chances created and marginally better defensive underlying numbers – explains why the prediction tilts towards an away win.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

M'gladbach
Goals in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours under 2.5 with a 48.0% probability, and the recent scorelines broadly support that under 2.5 view despite some volatility. Two of M’gladbach’s last three matches landed under 2.5 goals (1–1 vs Leverkusen, 0–3 vs Frankfurt technically hits 3.0 exactly but remains low‑scoring overall), while two of Union’s last three were also under (1–0 vs Leverkusen, 1–1 vs Frankfurt), with only the 3–2 at Hamburg clearly going over 2.5. With both sides averaging 1.2 goals scored recently and xG figures around 1.3–1.7 for and 1.4–1.8 against, the over 2.5 prediction looks slightly less likely than a tight, low‑margin game.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

M'gladbach
Corners in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.16 total corners, suggesting a moderate but not extreme level of attacking pressure. M’gladbach’s last three games produced 6, 10 and 4 total corners (averaging 6.7), while Union’s delivered 9, 9 and 7 (an 8.3 average), with Union both earning and conceding a fair number. Given Union’s tendency to soak up pressure and counter, and M’gladbach’s need to push at home, predicted corners just above nine fit a match where both teams will attack in spells but not relentlessly.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

M'gladbach
Shots in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.72, in line with the recent patterns of both sides. M’gladbach’s last three have seen combined shot counts of 22, 32 and 19, while Union’s produced 24, 25 and 14, supporting a shots prediction in the mid‑20s as a realistic range. With Union’s higher attacking xG (1.704) and Gladbach’s higher xG conceded (1.772), we can expect enough efforts on goal to keep things lively without turning into a complete shoot‑out.

Final Prediction

Union Berlin’s slight edge comes from better recent underlying numbers, a marginally stronger defensive base, and their current 9th‑place cushion versus a M’gladbach side drifting towards the relegation battle. The key factor to watch will be whether M’gladbach’s leaky defence can handle Union’s efficient chance creation; if not, Union’s narrow away win in a low‑scoring game looks a strong possibility.

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