Bundesliga 2025-2026: Mainz vs Augsburg Prediction - 7 Feb 2026
Result | Under-Over 2.5
Mainz
Home Team
81%
VS
Augsburg
Away Team
8%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5:
56%
Under 2.5:
44%
Goal:
56%
No Goal:
44%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 74 | 18 | 56 | 51 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 20 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 41 | 19 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | Hoffenheim | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 43 | 23 | 20 | 42 |
| 4 | Stuttgart | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 26 | 11 | 39 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 36 |
| 6 | Leverkusen | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 26 | 12 | 35 |
| 7 | Freiburg | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 33 | -2 | 27 |
| 8 | Ein Frankfurt | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 27 |
| 9 | Union Berlin | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 24 |
| 10 | FC Koln | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 23 |
| 11 | Augsburg | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 22 |
| 12 | M'gladbach | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 24 | 33 | -9 | 21 |
| 13 | Hamburg | 19 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 19 |
| 14 | Wolfsburg | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 19 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 19 |
| 16 | Mainz | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 18 |
| 17 | St Pauli | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 34 | -16 | 14 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 45 | -26 | 13 |
Recent Trends
Mainz
- Last Match: vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 3 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Union Berlin (Goals: 2 - 2)
Augsburg
- Last Match: vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Freiburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 4)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Mainz
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.43
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.20
# Clean Sheets:
0
Augsburg
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.21
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.33
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
Mainz are clear favorites at home, with an 81.0% chance of victory against an Augsburg side given just an 8.0% win probability (11.0% for the draw). The game is projected to go over 2.5 goals (56.0% likelihood), with a goal-heavy encounter expected. Despite sitting 16th on 18 points, Mainz are tipped to overcome 11th-placed Augsburg, who have 22 points.
Match Analysis
Mainz come into this one with renewed confidence: two wins from their last three, including a big away victory at RB Leipzig (2–1) and a 3–1 home success over Wolfsburg. Even in defeat at FC Köln (2–1), they found the net, underlining an attack that’s trending upwards. The advanced numbers back this up: they’ve averaged 1.2 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded over their last five, with an impressive 2.43 expected goals per match and just 1.2 expected against, suggesting they’ve been consistently creating more than the scorelines even show.
Augsburg’s recent results look strong on paper too, with back‑to‑back 2–1 wins over St Pauli and, notably, away at Bayern Munich, followed by a 2–2 draw with Freiburg. However, over the last five games they’ve averaged only 0.8 goals scored while conceding 2.4, and their expected goals conceded (2.33 per game) hints at persistent defensive vulnerability. They’ve also failed to keep a single clean sheet in that span, which is worrying against a Mainz side generating so many chances.
Final Prediction
Mainz’s superior underlying numbers, combined with home advantage and Augsburg’s leaky defence, give the hosts a strong edge. The key factor to watch will be whether Augsburg’s back line can withstand Mainz’s high chance production over 90 minutes.
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