Bundesliga 2025-2026: Mainz vs Bayern Munich Prediction - 25 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Mainz

Home Team
21%
VS

Bayern Munich

Away Team
60%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 68%
Under 2.5: 32%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 27.6
Expected Spread: -1.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 30 25 4 1 109 29 80 79
2 Dortmund 30 19 7 4 61 31 30 64
3 RB Leipzig 30 18 5 7 59 37 22 59
4 Stuttgart 30 17 5 8 62 42 20 56
5 Hoffenheim 30 16 6 8 59 44 15 54
6 Leverkusen 30 15 7 8 60 41 19 52
7 Freiburg 30 12 7 11 44 48 -4 43
8 Ein Frankfurt 30 11 9 10 55 57 -2 42
9 Augsburg 30 10 6 14 38 54 -16 36
10 Mainz 30 8 10 12 36 45 -9 34
11 Union Berlin 30 8 8 14 34 52 -18 32
12 FC Koln 30 7 10 13 44 51 -7 31
13 M'gladbach 30 7 10 13 36 50 -14 31
14 Hamburg 30 7 10 13 33 48 -15 31
15 Werder Bremen 30 8 7 15 35 53 -18 31
16 St Pauli 30 6 8 16 26 51 -25 26
17 Wolfsburg 30 6 6 18 41 66 -25 24
18 Heidenheim 30 4 7 19 33 66 -33 19

Recent Trends

Mainz D L W W W

  • Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 0)

Bayern Munich W W W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Stuttgart (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mainz

xG (avg) 2.03
xGA (avg) 1.07
Clean Sheets 1

Bayern Munich

xG (avg) 2.34
xGA (avg) 1.45
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Bayern Munich are clear favourites here, with a 60.0% probability of taking all three points away at 10th‑placed Mainz, who have just a 21.0% chance of an upset. The draw sits at 19.0%, underlining how strongly first‑placed Bayern are expected to impose themselves. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 68.0%.

Match Analysis

Mainz come into this on a mixed run: a gritty 1-1 draw away at M’gladbach, a narrow 0-1 home defeat to Freiburg, and an impressive 2-1 win at high‑flying Hoffenheim. They’ve been competitive in every game, rarely outclassed, and their recent numbers back that up – 1.4 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded on average across the last five, with a notably strong attacking xG of 2.026 per match and xG conceded at just 1.072. That suggests a side capable of creating more than their league position might imply, especially against teams willing to attack. Bayern, though, arrive in ruthless form. Three straight wins – 3-2 at Freiburg, 5-0 at St Pauli and 4-2 at home to Stuttgart – show both their firepower and their willingness to trade chances. They’re averaging 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded in their last five, supported by 2.336 xG for and 1.448 xG against. While they do allow opportunities, their sheer attacking volume and quality have overwhelmed most opponents, which is reflected in their enormous season goal difference of +80 and their position at the top of the table with 79 points.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Mainz
Goals in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is strong here, with a 68.0% probability of at least three goals. Two of Mainz’s last three league games (2-1 vs Hoffenheim, 1-1 vs M’gladbach, 0-1 vs Freiburg) finished under 2.5, but their underlying numbers – 1.4 scored, 1.0 conceded, and over 2.0 xG created on average – point to more open matches than the raw scores suggest. Bayern, with 3-2, 5-0 and 4-2 wins, have seen all of their last three go comfortably over 2.5, and their combination of high xG for and a defence that does give up chances supports another goal‑heavy afternoon rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Mainz
Corners in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s corners prediction points to around 9.68 total corners, a moderate figure in line with both sides’ recent profiles. Mainz have had corner counts of 6-0, 6-4 and 3-7 in their last three, showing they can both generate and concede a fair number when games open up. Bayern’s 11-3, 4-3 and 8-5 corner tallies underline their front‑foot approach; they pin teams back and rack up set‑pieces, so the predicted corners total fits a match where the champions do most of the attacking but Mainz still have moments on the break.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Mainz
Shots in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 27.56, which matches what we’ve seen from both teams recently. Mainz’s last three have featured 17-9, 10-8 and 9-16 shot counts, generally leaving them in games with around 20–25 attempts overall. Bayern’s shot volumes are heavier – 28-11 vs Stuttgart, 20-6 at St Pauli and 21-13 at Freiburg – consistently pushing matches towards high‑20s or beyond. That aligns the shots prediction and expected shots with Bayern’s strong xG numbers and their habit of turning pressure into frequent efforts on goal.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Mainz wins by X goals. Negative = Bayern Munich wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Mainz vs Bayern Munich with expected spread of -1.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Mainz vs Bayern Munich
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -1.14 (home minus away), indicating Bayern are expected to win by just over a goal on average. That tallies with the recent goal differences: Mainz have been tight (1-1, 0-1, 2-1), while Bayern have routinely won by margins of two or three (3-2, 5-0, 4-2). The expected spread reflects Bayern’s superior attacking output and league‑best goal difference, tempered by Mainz’s solid defensive xG record, which suggests they may not be completely overrun.

Final Prediction

Bayern’s edge in this matchup comes from relentless attacking power, superior xG figures and the depth that has carried them to 25 wins from 30 league games. Mainz’s underlying numbers hint they can compete, especially at home, but sustaining that over 90 minutes against the leaders is a major ask. The key factor to watch will be how long Mainz can keep Bayern’s shot volume under control; if the visitors start racking up attempts early, the game is likely to tilt decisively in the champions’ favour.

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