Bundesliga 2025-2026: Mainz vs Ein Frankfurt Prediction - 22 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Mainz

Home Team
47%
VS

Ein Frankfurt

Away Team
29%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 26 21 4 1 93 25 68 67
2 Dortmund 26 17 7 2 55 26 29 58
3 Hoffenheim 26 15 5 6 54 34 20 50
4 Stuttgart 26 15 5 6 51 34 17 50
5 RB Leipzig 26 14 5 7 48 35 13 47
6 Leverkusen 26 13 6 7 49 33 16 45
7 Ein Frankfurt 26 10 8 8 49 49 0 38
8 Freiburg 26 9 7 10 37 43 -6 34
9 Union Berlin 26 8 7 11 31 42 -11 31
10 Augsburg 26 9 4 13 31 45 -14 31
11 Hamburg 26 7 9 10 29 37 -8 30
12 M'gladbach 26 7 7 12 30 43 -13 28
13 Mainz 26 6 9 11 31 41 -10 27
14 FC Koln 26 6 7 13 35 44 -9 25
15 Werder Bremen 26 6 7 13 29 47 -18 25
16 St Pauli 26 6 6 14 23 42 -19 24
17 Wolfsburg 26 5 6 15 35 56 -21 21
18 Heidenheim 26 3 5 18 24 58 -34 14

Recent Trends

Mainz W D D D L

  • Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 4)

Ein Frankfurt W D W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mainz

xG (avg) 2.92
xGA (avg) 1.09
Clean Sheets 1

Ein Frankfurt

xG (avg) 1.03
xGA (avg) 2.04
Clean Sheets 4

Key Prediction Insights

Mainz are slight favourites here, with a 47.0% probability of taking all three points against Eintracht Frankfurt’s 29.0%, and a 24.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards a home win despite Frankfurt sitting higher in the Bundesliga table (7th with 38 points) than Mainz (13th with 27 points). Goals are expected: the over 2.5 prediction is backed at 55.0%, suggesting an open contest rather than a cagey scrap.

Match Analysis

Mainz come into this on an impressive three‑match unbeaten run: a 2-0 away win at Werder Bremen, plus eye‑catching draws against top‑four contenders Stuttgart (2-2 at home) and Leverkusen (1-1 away). They’ve mixed resilience with ambition, creating plenty of chances — 18 shots vs Stuttgart and a solid 11 at Bremen — and crucially tightened up at the back, conceding just three goals across those fixtures. Their recent advanced numbers are strong: averaging 2.0 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded in the last five, with an outstanding 2.918 expected goals for and just 1.086 against, showing they are consistently out‑creating opponents. Frankfurt, despite being higher in the standings, are a little harder to read. Their last three games show two professional home wins — 1-0 vs Heidenheim and 2-0 vs Freiburg — wrapped around a flat 0-0 at St Pauli. Impressively, they’ve kept four clean sheets in their last five, but the underlying metrics are less flattering: 1.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded on average, from only 1.03 expected goals for and 2.044 against. That combination suggests they’ve been more clinical — and more fortunate defensively — than their performances strictly merit.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Mainz
Goals in last 5 matches
Ein Frankfurt
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 55.0% is supported by both form and data. Two of Mainz’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (2-0, 2-2, 1-1), while all three of Frankfurt’s stayed under 2.5 (1-0, 0-0, 2-0). However, Mainz’s blend of 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, allied to that huge 2.918 xG for, points to a side creating enough to turn this into a higher‑scoring encounter, especially at home. Frankfurt’s relatively low attacking xG hints their recent scorelines may not be sustainable if Mainz keep up their chance volume.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Mainz
Corners in last 5 matches
Ein Frankfurt
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.73 total corners, which fits with the recent patterns of both sides. Mainz’s last three have produced 13, 11 and 8 corners respectively, while Frankfurt’s have seen 9, 11 and 11, underlining that both teams regularly generate and concede set‑piece situations. With Mainz pushing on at home and Frankfurt comfortable playing on the break, the predicted corners figure is consistent with two proactive sides who use width and sustained pressure to force defensive interventions.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Mainz
Shots in last 5 matches
Ein Frankfurt
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.36, which matches the recent evidence. Mainz’s last three games have featured 27, 29 and 20 shots in total, Frankfurt’s 15, 19 and 19, underlining that Mainz’s matches in particular tend to be higher‑volume affairs. Given Mainz’s strong xG profile and Frankfurt’s tendency to allow more than 2.0 expected goals against, the shots prediction suggests both attacks should get enough efforts away to justify an over 2.5 lean.

Final Prediction

Mainz’s edge comes from their recent underlying dominance: they are creating far better chances than their opponents and have proved they can stand up to top‑four sides. Frankfurt’s table position and clean-sheet run demand respect, but their xG and chance concession numbers hint at a side living a little dangerously. The key factor to watch will be whether Mainz’s aggressive chance creation can crack Frankfurt’s recently reliable defence — if it does, the home win and goals scenario looks very much on.

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