Bundesliga 2025-2026: Mainz vs Freiburg Prediction - 12 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Mainz

Home Team
52%
VS

Freiburg

Away Team
25%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 26.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 28 23 4 1 100 27 73 73
2 Dortmund 28 19 7 2 60 28 32 64
3 RB Leipzig 28 16 5 7 55 36 19 53
4 Stuttgart 28 16 5 7 56 38 18 53
5 Hoffenheim 28 15 5 8 55 41 14 50
6 Leverkusen 28 14 7 7 58 39 19 49
7 Ein Frankfurt 28 10 9 9 52 53 -1 39
8 Freiburg 28 10 7 11 41 47 -6 37
9 Mainz 28 8 9 11 35 43 -8 33
10 Union Berlin 28 8 8 12 32 47 -15 32
11 Augsburg 28 9 5 14 34 51 -17 32
12 Hamburg 28 7 10 11 32 41 -9 31
13 M'gladbach 28 7 9 12 35 48 -13 30
14 Werder Bremen 28 7 7 14 31 49 -18 28
15 FC Koln 28 6 9 13 40 49 -9 27
16 St Pauli 28 6 7 15 25 45 -20 25
17 Wolfsburg 28 5 6 17 38 63 -25 21
18 Heidenheim 28 3 7 18 29 63 -34 16

Recent Trends

Mainz W W W D D

  • Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 1)

Freiburg L W L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mainz

xG (avg) 2.80
xGA (avg) 1.18
Clean Sheets 1

Freiburg

xG (avg) 1.33
xGA (avg) 1.78
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Mainz are slight but clear favourites here, with a 52.0% probability of a home win against Freiburg’s 25.0%, and the draw at 23.0%. The model points to a home victory and an over 2.5 goals prediction (58.0% chance) in a mid‑table clash between 9th‑placed Mainz (33 points) and 8th‑placed Freiburg (37 points).

Match Analysis

Mainz come into this with real momentum: three wins from three, all by two goals scored – 2-1 at Hoffenheim, 2-1 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt and 2-0 away at Werder Bremen. The pattern is clear: efficient rather than dominant, often losing the corner and shot counts (for example 9-16 shots at Hoffenheim, 11-16 at Bremen) but punishing opponents when chances do come. Their recent advanced numbers back that up: 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average over the last five, with an impressive 2.802 expected goals for and only 1.182 xG against. That’s the profile of a side playing with attacking confidence and creating more than enough to keep this run going. Freiburg, by contrast, are stuttering. They have just one win in their last three – 2-1 away at St Pauli – bookended by home defeats to Bayern Munich (2-3) and Union Berlin (0-1). The Bayern loss was open and chaotic, but the Union defeat will sting more: 19 shots and 6 corners for Freiburg, no goals to show for it. Their five-game numbers tell the same story: only 0.8 goals scored per match, 1.8 conceded, with 1.33 xG for and 1.782 xG against. They are creating enough to threaten, but the finishing and defensive solidity are both off, which is a dangerous mix against a Mainz side currently taking its chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Mainz
Goals in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 58.0%, and the recent scorelines support it. Two of Mainz’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (2-1, 2-1, 2-0), while two of Freiburg’s last three also finished above the line (2-3, 2-1, 0-1). With Mainz averaging 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, underpinned by 2.802 xG for, and Freiburg’s defence allowing 1.8 goals from 1.782 xG conceded, this has all the ingredients for at least three goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Mainz
Corners in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total stands at 9.73, which sits right in the typical Bundesliga range for two proactive sides. Mainz’s last three outings produced 10, 8 and 13 total corners, while Freiburg’s games delivered 13, 5 and 8, showing a fair amount of fluctuation but regularly hitting around that 9–12 band. Given both teams’ willingness to shoot and attack wide, the corners prediction of roughly ten overall looks well supported by recent patterns.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Mainz
Shots in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.42, and the recent data backs a busy afternoon for both goalkeepers. Mainz matches have seen them allow plenty of efforts – 16 shots faced at Hoffenheim, 12 vs Frankfurt, 16 at Bremen – even as they’ve been clinical going forward. Freiburg, meanwhile, have taken 13, 15 and 19 shots in their last three, and also faced 21 from Bayern and 12 from St Pauli. With those volumes and the underlying xG profiles, a shots prediction in the mid‑20s to high‑20s feels realistic.

Final Prediction

Mainz’s edge lies in current form and efficiency: three straight wins, strong attacking xG and a knack for turning limited chances into goals. Freiburg are still generating opportunities but look fragile at the back and wasteful in front of goal. The key factor to watch will be whether Freiburg can finally match their shot volume with end product, or whether Mainz’s sharper finishing again proves the difference.

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