Bundesliga 2025-2026: Mainz vs Hamburg Prediction - 20 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Mainz

Home Team
48%
VS

Hamburg

Away Team
26%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 25.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 22 18 3 1 82 19 63 57
2 Dortmund 22 15 6 1 47 20 27 51
3 Hoffenheim 22 14 3 5 47 28 19 45
4 Stuttgart 22 13 3 6 41 29 12 42
5 RB Leipzig 22 12 4 6 42 30 12 40
6 Leverkusen 21 12 3 6 43 27 16 39
7 Ein Frankfurt 22 8 7 7 44 46 -2 31
8 Freiburg 22 8 6 8 32 36 -4 30
9 Hamburg 21 6 7 8 24 31 -7 25
10 Union Berlin 22 6 7 9 28 37 -9 25
11 Augsburg 22 7 4 11 25 39 -14 25
12 FC Koln 22 6 5 11 31 37 -6 23
13 M'gladbach 22 5 7 10 25 37 -12 22
14 Mainz 22 5 6 11 25 37 -12 21
15 Wolfsburg 22 5 5 12 31 46 -15 20
16 Werder Bremen 22 4 7 11 22 42 -20 19
17 St Pauli 22 4 5 13 20 39 -19 17
18 Heidenheim 22 3 4 15 19 48 -29 13

Recent Trends

Mainz L W W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 2)

Hamburg W W D D D

  • Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mainz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.45
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.16
# Clean Sheets: 1

Hamburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.14
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.68
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Mainz are slight favourites here, with a 48.0% probability of a home win against Hamburg’s 26.0%, making the hosts the predicted winners in this matchup. The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction on goals at 54.0%, suggesting a match with a decent chance of attacking action. In the current Bundesliga table, Hamburg sit 9th on 25 points, while Mainz are 14th with 21 points and still looking over their shoulders at the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Mainz come into this game with growing confidence despite a recent 0-4 setback away to Dortmund. Before that heavy defeat, they posted back-to-back wins: 2-0 at home to Augsburg and an impressive 2-1 away at RB Leipzig. Over their last five matches they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded, backed up by strong attacking underlying numbers (2.454 expected goals per game) and a relatively solid defence (1.164 xG conceded). That profile points to a side creating plenty and generally restricting opponents, even if Dortmund punished them heavily. Hamburg’s recent form has picked up in terms of results, with a 3-2 home win over Union Berlin, a 2-0 away victory at Heidenheim and a battling 2-2 draw at home to Bayern Munich. Those three results suggest momentum, but the broader five-game metrics tell a more cautious story: only 0.8 goals scored on average and 1.4 conceded, with 1.14 xG for and 1.682 xG against. The three clean sheets in the last five matches show they can be compact, yet they are still allowing better chances than they are creating, which is a concern away at an improving Mainz.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Mainz
Goals in last 5 matches
Hamburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours an over 2.5 prediction with a 54.0% probability, and recent scorelines support the idea of goals. Two of Mainz’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (4-0 vs Dortmund, 2-1 vs Leipzig), while their 2-0 win over Augsburg went under 2.5. For Hamburg, all three of their recent matches reached at least three goals (3-2, 2-0, 2-2), with a total of 11 goals in that span. With Mainz averaging 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded and generating 2.454 xG per game, and Hamburg’s defence allowing 1.682 xG, the data slightly tilts towards another game finishing above the 2.5 line rather than an under 2.5 outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Mainz
Corners in last 5 matches
Hamburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total for this match is 9.74 corners, hinting at a game with steady attacking pressure from both sides. Mainz’s last three have produced corner counts of 2-7, 6-4 and 4-5, keeping them regularly around or just under double figures combined. Hamburg’s recent games (6-3 vs Union, 8-10 vs Heidenheim, 3-9 vs Bayern) have been corner-heavy, especially away from home, reinforcing an aggressive, front-foot style that suits a relatively high corners prediction. With both teams willing to push forward, the predicted corners figure looks consistent with their recent patterns.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Mainz
Shots in last 5 matches
Hamburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s expected shots total is 25.58, pointing towards an open contest where both teams get efforts away at goal. Mainz have taken 10, 10 and 11 shots in their last three, while facing 14, 14 and 15; Hamburg have attempted 13, 14 and 14, conceding 12, 20 and 13. That volume aligns well with this shots prediction and with Mainz’s strong attacking xG numbers. If Mainz continue to create chances at their recent 2.454 xG level and Hamburg keep allowing over 1.6 xG per game, we can anticipate a busy day for both goalkeepers in terms of expected shots.

Final Prediction

Mainz have the edge thanks to home advantage and stronger underlying numbers at both ends of the pitch, which explains their 48.0% win probability versus Hamburg’s 26.0%. Hamburg’s recent results show they are dangerous, but their xG profile suggests they may struggle to control the game away from home. A key factor to watch will be how well Hamburg’s defence copes with Mainz’s chance creation; if Mainz translate their xG into clinical finishing, the hosts are well-placed to take all three points.

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