Bundesliga 2025-2026: Mainz vs Hoffenheim Prediction - 21 Nov 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Mainz

Home Team
22%
VS

Hoffenheim

Away Team
59%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 10 9 1 0 35 6 29 28
2 RB Leipzig 10 7 1 2 20 13 7 22
3 Dortmund 10 6 3 1 16 7 9 21
4 Stuttgart 10 7 0 3 17 12 5 21
5 Leverkusen 10 6 2 2 24 14 10 20
6 Hoffenheim 10 6 1 3 21 16 5 19
7 Ein Frankfurt 10 5 2 3 23 19 4 17
8 Werder Bremen 10 4 3 3 15 18 -3 15
9 FC Koln 10 4 2 4 17 15 2 14
10 Freiburg 10 3 4 3 13 14 -1 13
11 Union Berlin 10 3 3 4 13 17 -4 12
12 M'gladbach 10 2 3 5 13 19 -6 9
13 Hamburg 10 2 3 5 9 16 -7 9
14 Wolfsburg 10 2 2 6 12 18 -6 8
15 Augsburg 10 2 1 7 14 24 -10 7
16 St Pauli 10 2 1 7 9 20 -11 7
17 Mainz 10 1 2 7 10 18 -8 5
18 Heidenheim 10 1 2 7 8 23 -15 5

Recent Trends

Mainz L D L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 0 - 4)

Hoffenheim W W W W L

  • Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs FC Koln (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mainz

xG (avg) 1.23
xGA (avg) 2.04
Clean Sheets 0

Hoffenheim

xG (avg) 1.92
xGA (avg) 1.53
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Bundesliga clash between Mainz and Hoffenheim is shaping up to be an intriguing encounter. Hoffenheim is favored to win with a 59.0% probability, while Mainz holds a mere 22.0% chance of victory. The game is also predicted to see over 2.5 goals, with a probability of 54.0%. Hoffenheim sits comfortably in 6th place, while Mainz struggles at 17th, just above the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Mainz's recent performances have been lackluster, failing to secure a win in their last three matches. They drew 1-1 against Werder Bremen and suffered losses to Eintracht Frankfurt and Stuttgart. Their offensive struggles are evident, averaging only 0.8 goals per game over the last five matches, while conceding an average of 1.8 goals. Without a clean sheet in their recent outings, Mainz’s defense remains a significant concern. Hoffenheim, on the other hand, is riding a wave of positive results, winning their last three matches. They secured impressive victories against RB Leipzig, Wolfsburg, and Heidenheim, scoring three goals in each game. Hoffenheim's attacking prowess is clear, with an average of 2.6 goals scored per game recently. Their defensive form is also relatively solid, conceding just 1.2 goals on average. With one clean sheet in their last five matches, they appear more stable at the back compared to Mainz.

Final Prediction

Hoffenheim’s current form and offensive capabilities give them a distinct edge over Mainz. The disparity in recent performances, as well as their higher league standing, suggests Hoffenheim is well-positioned to capitalize on Mainz’s defensive vulnerabilities. A key factor to watch will be Hoffenheim's attacking trio, who have been in excellent form and could prove pivotal in breaking down the Mainz defense.

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