Bundesliga 2025-2026: Mainz vs Stuttgart Prediction - 7 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Mainz

Home Team
11%
VS

Stuttgart

Away Team
78%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 26.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 24 20 3 1 88 23 65 63
2 Dortmund 24 15 7 2 51 25 26 52
3 Hoffenheim 24 14 4 6 49 31 18 46
4 Stuttgart 24 14 4 6 48 32 16 46
5 RB Leipzig 24 13 5 6 46 33 13 44
6 Leverkusen 24 13 4 7 45 29 16 43
7 Ein Frankfurt 24 9 7 8 48 49 -1 34
8 Freiburg 24 9 6 9 34 39 -5 33
9 Augsburg 24 9 4 11 30 41 -11 31
10 Union Berlin 24 7 7 10 29 38 -9 28
11 Hamburg 24 6 8 10 26 35 -9 26
12 M'gladbach 24 6 7 11 27 39 -12 25
13 FC Koln 24 6 6 12 33 41 -8 24
14 Mainz 24 5 8 11 27 39 -12 23
15 St Pauli 24 6 5 13 23 40 -17 23
16 Werder Bremen 24 5 7 12 25 44 -19 22
17 Wolfsburg 24 5 5 14 33 53 -20 20
18 Heidenheim 24 3 5 16 22 53 -31 14

Recent Trends

Mainz D D L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 1)

Stuttgart W D W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mainz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.59
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.95
# Clean Sheets: 1

Stuttgart

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.13
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.54
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Stuttgart travel to Mainz as heavy favourites, with a 78.0% probability of an away win against just 11.0% for the hosts and 11.0% for the draw. Fourth-placed Stuttgart (46 points) are pushing hard for the Champions League spots, while 14th-placed Mainz (23 points) are still looking nervously over their shoulders at the relegation battle. The over 2.5 prediction is also leaning towards goals, with a 56.0% chance that the game produces at least three.

Match Analysis

Mainz come into this under pressure, but their recent performances have been more resilient than their league position suggests. They have taken back-to-back draws against Hamburg (1-1) and high-flying Leverkusen (1-1), before being outclassed 4-0 at Dortmund. Across those three, they’ve scored twice and conceded six, but the advanced numbers over the last five games – 1.6 goals scored on average from 2.586 expected goals and just 0.6 conceded from 0.948 xG against – suggest a side creating enough and generally defending better than one heavy defeat might imply. Stuttgart, though, arrive in far more convincing form. They have seven points from their last three: a dominant 4-0 win over Wolfsburg, a wild 3-3 draw away at Heidenheim, and a 3-1 home victory over Köln. That’s 10 goals scored and four conceded in three matches, underlined by excellent recent averages of 3.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in their last five outings. Their xG profile – 2.132 created and 1.538 allowed per game – paints the picture of a front-foot side that always carries a threat, but one that also leaves space and chances at the other end.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Mainz
Goals in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction, with a 56.0% chance of the match featuring at least three goals. Two of Stuttgart’s last three league fixtures have gone over 2.5 (4-0 vs Wolfsburg, 3-3 vs Heidenheim, 3-1 vs Köln – all comfortably over), while Mainz have seen two of their last three stay under 2.5 (1-1 vs Leverkusen, 1-1 vs Hamburg) and one go over (0-4 at Dortmund). With Mainz averaging 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded, and Stuttgart at 3.0 scored and 1.2 conceded in recent games, supported by strong xG numbers for both attacks, the balance tilts towards another open, goal-heavy encounter rather than an under 2.5 cagey battle.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Mainz
Corners in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.36, pointing to a moderate but not extraordinary volume of set-piece situations. Mainz’s last three have produced mixed corner counts: 2-6 at Leverkusen, 7-2 against Hamburg, and 2-7 at Dortmund, reflecting how much they can be pushed back by stronger opponents. Stuttgart’s recent games show a similar attacking intent: 7-3 vs Wolfsburg, 4-3 at Heidenheim and 2-5 vs Köln. Given Stuttgart’s tendency to press high and pile on shots, the corners prediction around nine to ten overall fits a game where the visitors do most of the attacking and Mainz look to break when they can.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Mainz
Shots in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.73, which suits the pattern of both teams’ recent matches. Mainz have seen 8-12 vs Leverkusen, 17-14 vs Hamburg and 10-14 vs Dortmund – games that regularly land in the mid-to-high twenties for combined attempts. Stuttgart’s last three underline their attacking volume: 24-10 against Wolfsburg, 12-10 at Heidenheim, and 13-10 vs Köln. With Stuttgart averaging over 2 xG per match and Mainz also generating strong xG recently, a shots prediction around 27 looks realistic for an open, end-to-end contest.

Final Prediction

Stuttgart’s superior league position, recent scoring form and stronger attacking metrics give them a clear edge, justifying the 78.0% probability of an away win. Mainz’s underlying numbers suggest they can compete in spells, but sustaining that against one of the league’s most dangerous forward lines is another matter. The key factor to watch will be how Mainz’s defence handles Stuttgart’s relentless attacking pressure and whether the hosts can convert their own xG into the goals they’ll need to avoid being overrun.

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