Bundesliga 2025-2026: Mainz vs Union Berlin Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Mainz

Home Team
59%
VS

Union Berlin

Away Team
21%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 8.9
Expected Shots: 24.1
Expected Spread: +0.9

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 32 26 5 1 116 35 81 83
2 Dortmund 32 20 7 5 65 32 33 67
3 RB Leipzig 32 19 5 8 63 42 21 62
4 Leverkusen 32 17 7 8 66 43 23 58
5 Stuttgart 32 17 7 8 66 46 20 58
6 Hoffenheim 32 17 7 8 64 48 16 58
7 Freiburg 32 12 8 12 45 53 -8 44
8 Ein Frankfurt 32 11 10 11 57 60 -3 43
9 Augsburg 32 11 7 14 42 56 -14 40
10 Mainz 32 9 10 13 41 50 -9 37
11 M'gladbach 32 8 11 13 37 50 -13 35
12 Hamburg 32 8 10 14 36 51 -15 34
13 Union Berlin 32 8 9 15 37 57 -20 33
14 FC Koln 32 7 11 14 47 55 -8 32
15 Werder Bremen 32 8 8 16 37 57 -20 32
16 Wolfsburg 32 6 8 18 42 67 -25 26
17 St Pauli 32 6 8 18 27 55 -28 26
18 Heidenheim 32 5 8 19 38 69 -31 23

Recent Trends

Mainz W L D L W

  • Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 2 - 1)

Union Berlin D L L L D

  • Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mainz

xG (avg) 2.07
xGA (avg) 1.27
Clean Sheets 0

Union Berlin

xG (avg) 0.57
xGA (avg) 3.30
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Mainz are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 59.0% probability of victory against Union Berlin’s 21.0%, and a draw also at 21.0%. Sitting 10th in the Bundesliga on 37 points, Mainz have a small but important cushion over 13th-placed Union on 33 points, and the numbers point to a home win with an expected goal spread of +0.93. The over 2.5 prediction is slightly in play as well, with a 50.0% chance of at least three goals.

Match Analysis

Mainz come into this with a steady run of competitive performances: a 2-1 away win at St Pauli, a narrow 4-3 home defeat to champions Bayern Munich, and a 1-1 draw at M’gladbach. They’ve shown they can create chances consistently, posting 17 shots at St Pauli, 11 against Bayern and 17 again at Gladbach. Despite no clean sheets in their last five, Mainz’s advanced metrics are encouraging: they average 2.068 expected goals for and only 1.272 xG against, more positive than their raw goals (1.6 scored, 1.8 conceded). Union Berlin, by contrast, are stumbling towards the finish. They followed a 2-2 home draw with Köln with back-to-back defeats: 3-1 at RB Leipzig and 2-1 at home to Wolfsburg. The underlying numbers are worrying: just 0.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded on average in their last five, with only 0.57 xG for and a hefty 3.298 xG against. Even when they dominated territory, like the 25 shots and 11 corners against Wolfsburg, they still lost, underlining their inefficiency in front of goal and frailty at the back.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Mainz
Goals in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction at 50.0%, but it’s a marginal call rather than a goalfest guarantee. Two of Mainz’s last three league games went over 2.5 goals (3-4 vs Bayern, 2-1 vs St Pauli), with only the 1-1 at M’gladbach staying under. For Union, two of the last three also went over (2-2 vs Köln, 1-3 at Leipzig) and one under (1-2 vs Wolfsburg), but their low average of 0.6 goals scored versus 2.2 conceded, plus a modest 0.57 xG for, suggests Mainz will need to drive most of the scoring.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Mainz
Corners in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a fairly standard Bundesliga total, with 8.94 expected total corners in this match. Mainz’s recent games produced 14, 8 and 6 corners respectively, while Union’s last three delivered 7, 14 and 15 – the Berliners in particular racking up big numbers (11 corners) against Wolfsburg. Given both sides’ willingness to shoot and work the flanks, especially Mainz at home, the predicted corners figure fits two teams who attack enough to force set-pieces without being all-out wing-heavy.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Mainz
Shots in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.07, which feels aligned with what both sides have shown lately. Mainz attempted 17, 11 and 17 shots in their last three, while Union produced 13, 5 and 25, though they often had to chase games. This shots prediction ties in with the xG numbers: Mainz’s strong 2.068 xG average should translate into a decent volume of efforts, while Union’s higher xG against hints at them facing plenty of attempts again.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Mainz wins by X goals. Negative = Union Berlin wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Mainz vs Union Berlin with expected spread of +0.9
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Mainz vs Union Berlin
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction of +0.93 in Mainz’s favour effectively calls for a narrow but clear home win. Over the last three games Mainz have a combined goal difference of 0 (6 scored, 6 conceded), but they’ve faced tough opponents and still held their own. Union’s recent goal difference is -3 (4 scored, 7 conceded), and with a 59.0% home-win probability plus Mainz’s better attacking and defensive metrics, the expected spread looks justified.

Final Prediction

Mainz have the form, the underlying stats and home advantage on their side, which is why they are projected to edge this crucial mid-table clash. Union Berlin’s poor xG profile and leaky defence away from home tilt the balance strongly towards the hosts. The key factor to watch will be whether Mainz’s chance creation – already outpacing their actual goals – finally turns into a more clinical performance in front of goal.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel