Bundesliga 2025-2026: RB Leipzig vs Augsburg Prediction - 7 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

RB Leipzig

Home Team
85%
VS

Augsburg

Away Team
7%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 63%
Under 2.5: 37%
Goal: 67%
No Goal: 33%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 27.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 24 20 3 1 88 23 65 63
2 Dortmund 24 15 7 2 51 25 26 52
3 Hoffenheim 24 14 4 6 49 31 18 46
4 Stuttgart 24 14 4 6 48 32 16 46
5 RB Leipzig 24 13 5 6 46 33 13 44
6 Leverkusen 24 13 4 7 45 29 16 43
7 Ein Frankfurt 24 9 7 8 48 49 -1 34
8 Freiburg 24 9 6 9 34 39 -5 33
9 Augsburg 24 9 4 11 30 41 -11 31
10 Union Berlin 24 7 7 10 29 38 -9 28
11 Hamburg 24 6 8 10 26 35 -9 26
12 M'gladbach 24 6 7 11 27 39 -12 25
13 FC Koln 24 6 6 12 33 41 -8 24
14 Mainz 24 5 8 11 27 39 -12 23
15 St Pauli 24 6 5 13 23 40 -17 23
16 Werder Bremen 24 5 7 12 25 44 -19 22
17 Wolfsburg 24 5 5 14 33 53 -20 20
18 Heidenheim 24 3 5 16 22 53 -31 14

Recent Trends

RB Leipzig W D D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 2)

Augsburg W W W L W

  • Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

RB Leipzig

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.76
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.88
# Clean Sheets: 0

Augsburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.28
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.52
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

RB Leipzig come into this one as heavy favourites, with an 85.0% implied chance of victory against Augsburg’s 7.0%, and a 9.0% chance of a draw. Leipzig sit 5th on 44 points and are pushing hard for the Champions League places, while Augsburg are 9th on 31 points and looking upward rather than over their shoulder. The model leans towards goals as well, backing an over 2.5 prediction with a 63.0% probability and expecting both sides to score.

Match Analysis

Leipzig’s recent form reads better than the raw results suggest: a win at Hamburg (2-1) followed by two entertaining home draws, 2-2 against both Dortmund and Wolfsburg. Across those three matches they’ve scored six and conceded five, consistently creating more shots than their opponents – 13-7 in Hamburg and 20-10 versus Wolfsburg – and dominating corners too. The concern is at the back: in their last five games, they’ve conceded an average of 2.2 goals and have not kept a single clean sheet. Augsburg arrive on a three-game winning streak, all by narrow margins: 2-0 over FC Köln, 3-2 at Wolfsburg and 1-0 against Heidenheim. They’ve found ways to win even when being out-shot, as against Heidenheim (12-16), and they’ve collected two clean sheets in their last five. However, the advanced numbers paint a more fragile picture: they are allowing an average of 2.518 expected goals against in that period, compared with just 1.282 xG going forward. Up against a Leipzig side generating 2.756 xG on average in their last five, Augsburg look vulnerable once sustained pressure arrives.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

RB Leipzig
Goals in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 63.0% is strongly supported by recent scorelines. Two of Leipzig’s last three matches finished with at least four goals, and all three cleared two goals in total. Augsburg’s last three have been tighter, with one high-scoring game (3-2 at Wolfsburg) and two unders (2-0, 1-0), so one out of three went over 2.5. Yet Leipzig’s mix of 1.6 goals scored, 2.2 conceded and a hefty 2.756 xG per game suggests a match with chances and space, especially when set against Augsburg’s high xG conceded.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

RB Leipzig
Corners in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.79, pointing towards a match in the 9–10 corner range. Leipzig’s last three have produced 13, 8 and 8 total corners, with Leipzig consistently on the front foot: 9-4 at Hamburg and 6-2 in both home games. Augsburg, meanwhile, have seen 15, 14 and 9 corners in their last three, often allowing plenty to the opposition. Given Leipzig’s attacking, high-volume style and Augsburg’s tendency to soak up pressure, this corners prediction of around ten looks in line with how both teams play.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

RB Leipzig
Shots in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 27.15 suggests a lively attacking contest. Leipzig have racked up 13, 13 and 20 shots in their last three, while generally holding opponents to lower totals (7, 11 and 10), reflecting their strong xG and territorial dominance. Augsburg’s games have been more open in both directions – 14-10, 15-10 and 12-16 – which supports a shots prediction in the high 20s overall, with Leipzig likely to take the lion’s share of attempts.

Final Prediction

Leipzig’s superior league position, heavier shot volume and far stronger underlying attacking numbers give them a clear edge, especially at home. Augsburg’s recent results command respect, but their high expected goals conceded suggests their run may be hard to sustain against this level of opposition. The key factor to watch will be whether Leipzig can turn their territorial and xG dominance into an early lead, forcing Augsburg to open up and play on terms that suit the hosts.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel