Bundesliga 2025-2026: RB Leipzig vs Dortmund Prediction - 21 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

RB Leipzig

Home Team
32%
VS

Dortmund

Away Team
45%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 63%
No Goal: 37%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 26.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 22 18 3 1 82 19 63 57
2 Dortmund 22 15 6 1 47 20 27 51
3 Hoffenheim 22 14 3 5 47 28 19 45
4 Stuttgart 22 13 3 6 41 29 12 42
5 RB Leipzig 22 12 4 6 42 30 12 40
6 Leverkusen 21 12 3 6 43 27 16 39
7 Ein Frankfurt 22 8 7 7 44 46 -2 31
8 Freiburg 22 8 6 8 32 36 -4 30
9 Hamburg 21 6 7 8 24 31 -7 25
10 Union Berlin 22 6 7 9 28 37 -9 25
11 Augsburg 22 7 4 11 25 39 -14 25
12 FC Koln 22 6 5 11 31 37 -6 23
13 M'gladbach 22 5 7 10 25 37 -12 22
14 Mainz 22 5 6 11 25 37 -12 21
15 Wolfsburg 22 5 5 12 31 46 -15 20
16 Werder Bremen 22 4 7 11 22 42 -20 19
17 St Pauli 22 4 5 13 20 39 -19 17
18 Heidenheim 22 3 4 15 19 48 -29 13

Recent Trends

RB Leipzig D W L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 0)

Dortmund W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Mainz (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

RB Leipzig

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.44
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.15
# Clean Sheets: 1

Dortmund

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.78
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.37
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Dortmund are slight favourites here with a 45.0% chance of winning away to RB Leipzig, who have a 32.0% probability of taking all three points, while the draw sits at 23.0%. With Dortmund currently 2nd on 51 points and Leipzig 5th on 40 points chasing a top‑four spot, this is a key clash near the top of the Bundesliga table. The model leans towards a Dortmund win combined with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 62.0%, pointing to an open, attacking contest.

Match Analysis

Leipzig come in with mixed form: a 2-2 home draw with Wolfsburg, a 2-1 away win at FC Köln, and a 1-2 home defeat to Mainz. They’ve scored in all three but also conceded in all three, underlining a defensive fragility. Over the last five games they average 1.4 goals scored and a high 2.4 conceded, yet their xG for (2.442) and against (2.154) suggest they are involved in very chance-heavy matches at both ends. Dortmund’s recent run is much more convincing: three straight wins, 4-0 vs Mainz, 2-1 at Wolfsburg, and 3-2 vs Heidenheim. They’ve been consistently dangerous, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five, with two clean sheets in that span. Their xG figures (1.782 for, 1.374 against) point to a side that creates enough and generally keeps opponents to more modest chances than Leipzig do, which supports the edge in the win probabilities.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

RB Leipzig
Goals in last 5 matches
Dortmund
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction comes with a 62.0% probability, and recent scorelines back that up. Two out of Leipzig’s last three matches finished over 2.5 goals (4 and 3 total goals), and all three of Dortmund’s most recent games went over 2.5 (4, 3, and 5 total goals). Leipzig’s average of 1.4 scored and 2.4 conceded, combined with their high attacking and defensive xG, plus Dortmund’s 2.2 scored and 1.2 conceded with solid xG numbers, all point more towards over 2.5 rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

RB Leipzig
Corners in last 5 matches
Dortmund
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.38, suggesting a game with a healthy but not extreme number of set-piece situations. Leipzig’s last three matches saw corner counts of 6-2, 3-4, and 5-4, showing they regularly generate and concede opportunities from wide areas. Dortmund’s recent corner numbers (7-2, 8-4, 12-3) highlight a front-foot, attacking style that feeds into a positive corners prediction, with both sides likely to push high and force defensive interventions in the box.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

RB Leipzig
Shots in last 5 matches
Dortmund
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match sit at 26.71, indicating a lively contest in and around the penalty areas. Leipzig have recently posted 20, 19, and 15 shots, while allowing 10, 10, and 11, consistent with their high xG for and against. Dortmund’s last three (14, 21, and 19 shots taken, while conceding 10, 12, and 12) reinforce a shots prediction close to the expected shots figure, with both attacks active enough to keep the goalkeepers busy.

Final Prediction

Dortmund’s superior recent form, tighter defence, and slightly better balance between xG for and against give them a narrow edge over a Leipzig side that creates plenty but concedes too much. The key factor to watch will be how Leipzig’s open, high-chance style matches up against Dortmund’s efficient finishing and more controlled defending in a game that should produce goals and plenty of action.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel