Bundesliga 2025-2026: RB Leipzig vs M'gladbach Prediction - 11 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

RB Leipzig

Home Team
70%
VS

M'gladbach

Away Team
14%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 26.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 28 23 4 1 100 27 73 73
2 Dortmund 28 19 7 2 60 28 32 64
3 RB Leipzig 28 16 5 7 55 36 19 53
4 Stuttgart 28 16 5 7 56 38 18 53
5 Hoffenheim 28 15 5 8 55 41 14 50
6 Leverkusen 28 14 7 7 58 39 19 49
7 Ein Frankfurt 28 10 9 9 52 53 -1 39
8 Freiburg 28 10 7 11 41 47 -6 37
9 Mainz 28 8 9 11 35 43 -8 33
10 Union Berlin 28 8 8 12 32 47 -15 32
11 Augsburg 28 9 5 14 34 51 -17 32
12 Hamburg 28 7 10 11 32 41 -9 31
13 M'gladbach 28 7 9 12 35 48 -13 30
14 Werder Bremen 28 7 7 14 31 49 -18 28
15 FC Koln 28 6 9 13 40 49 -9 27
16 St Pauli 28 6 7 15 25 45 -20 25
17 Wolfsburg 28 5 6 17 38 63 -25 21
18 Heidenheim 28 3 7 18 29 63 -34 16

Recent Trends

RB Leipzig W W L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 1)

M'gladbach D D W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

RB Leipzig

xG (avg) 2.64
xGA (avg) 1.76
Clean Sheets 1

M'gladbach

xG (avg) 1.12
xGA (avg) 1.74
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

RB Leipzig are strong favourites here, with a 70.0% probability of a home win against a Borussia M’gladbach side given just a 14.0% chance, and a 16.0% likelihood of a draw. Leipzig sit 3rd in the Bundesliga on 53 points and firmly in the Champions League race, while Gladbach are 13th on 30 points, still glancing nervously over their shoulders. The model also leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 62.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Leipzig come in with momentum: two wins from their last three, including a ruthless 5-0 demolition of Hoffenheim at home and a gritty 2-1 away win at Werder Bremen. Even in the 1-0 defeat at Stuttgart they created chances (9 shots to Stuttgart’s 13) and generally look like a side in control of their matches. Over their last five, they’ve averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, underpinned by strong attacking numbers with 2.642 expected goals per game, although the 1.762 xG conceded and just one clean sheet in that spell show they do allow opportunities. Gladbach’s recent form is more mixed: unbeaten in three, but with two chaotic draws – 2-2 at home to bottom side Heidenheim and 3-3 away at FC Köln – either side of a controlled 2-0 home win over St. Pauli. They’re finding the net (1.2 goals per game over the last five) but leaking badly at the back, conceding 2.6 on average. Interestingly, their defensive underlying numbers (1.736 xG conceded per game) suggest they’re not being completely overrun, yet lapses and efficiency from opponents are punishing them. With Leipzig’s attack in good rhythm and Gladbach’s defence fragile, the balance of play is tilted heavily towards the hosts.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

RB Leipzig
Goals in last 5 matches
M'gladbach
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction at 62.0%, and the recent scorelines support that outlook. Two of Leipzig’s last three matches have hit at least three goals (3 and 5 total goals), while only the 1-0 defeat at Stuttgart went under 2.5. Gladbach have been even more wild: two of their last three (2-2 vs Heidenheim, 3-3 vs Köln) have comfortably cleared the line, with only the 2-0 win over St. Pauli landing under 2.5. With Leipzig averaging 2.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, and Gladbach at 1.2 scored and 2.6 conceded over their last five, plus both sides’ xG profiles pointing to chances at both ends, goals feel more likely than a tight, cagey affair.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

RB Leipzig
Corners in last 5 matches
M'gladbach
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.28, suggesting a moderately open contest without being a corner frenzy. Leipzig’s last three have produced low counts for them – 0, 1 and 6 corners – but their opponents have still found some joy (1, 3 and 5), reflecting a side that can dominate without always racking up set-piece totals. Gladbach’s recent games have been steadier but modest in this department, with corner counts of 2, 3 and 2 for them, and 3, 5 and 2 for their opponents. That balance fits a corners prediction just shy of double figures, in line with Leipzig’s front-foot style and Gladbach’s willingness to trade attacks.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

RB Leipzig
Shots in last 5 matches
M'gladbach
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match is 26.18 in total, which matches what we’ve seen from both teams lately. Leipzig’s last three outings have seen combined shot counts of 20, 22 and 22, with them often being the more efficient rather than the most prolific volume shooters. Gladbach’s recent games have been similarly lively in terms of attempts: 30 shots vs Heidenheim, 21 vs Köln and 18 vs St. Pauli. With Leipzig’s strong xG numbers (2.642 for, 1.762 against) and Gladbach’s ability to both create and concede looks, a shots prediction in the mid‑20s feels well supported.

Final Prediction

Leipzig’s superior league position, sharper recent form and far more potent attacking metrics give them a clear edge over an inconsistent Gladbach side. The key factor to watch will be how Gladbach’s shaky defence handles Leipzig’s high-output attack; if the visitors can’t tighten up, the hosts have all the tools to turn dominance into a decisive home win.

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