Bundesliga 2025-2026: RB Leipzig vs St Pauli Prediction - 9 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

RB Leipzig

Home Team
78%
VS

St Pauli

Away Team
10%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 26.9
Expected Spread: +1.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 32 26 5 1 116 35 81 83
2 Dortmund 32 20 7 5 65 32 33 67
3 RB Leipzig 32 19 5 8 63 42 21 62
4 Leverkusen 32 17 7 8 66 43 23 58
5 Stuttgart 32 17 7 8 66 46 20 58
6 Hoffenheim 32 17 7 8 64 48 16 58
7 Freiburg 32 12 8 12 45 53 -8 44
8 Ein Frankfurt 32 11 10 11 57 60 -3 43
9 Augsburg 32 11 7 14 42 56 -14 40
10 Mainz 32 9 10 13 41 50 -9 37
11 M'gladbach 32 8 11 13 37 50 -13 35
12 Hamburg 32 8 10 14 36 51 -15 34
13 Union Berlin 32 8 9 15 37 57 -20 33
14 FC Koln 32 7 11 14 47 55 -8 32
15 Werder Bremen 32 8 8 16 37 57 -20 32
16 Wolfsburg 32 6 8 18 42 67 -25 26
17 St Pauli 32 6 8 18 27 55 -28 26
18 Heidenheim 32 5 8 19 38 69 -31 23

Recent Trends

RB Leipzig L W W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 1)

St Pauli L L D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Heidenheim (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

RB Leipzig

xG (avg) 3.14
xGA (avg) 1.51
Clean Sheets 1

St Pauli

xG (avg) 0.75
xGA (avg) 1.97
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

RB Leipzig are clear favourites here, with a 78.0% probability of a home win against a St Pauli side given just a 10.0% chance, and a 12.0% likelihood of a draw. Third in the Bundesliga on 62 points, Leipzig are pushing to secure Champions League football, while 17th‑placed St Pauli are fighting to avoid relegation. The game is also tilted towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction backed by a 62.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Leipzig come into this on a strong run of form despite a 4-1 setback away at Leverkusen. That defeat followed back-to-back 3-1 wins over Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt, underlining their attacking power: 7 goals scored in those three matches and at least 19 shots in two of them. Over the last five games, they’ve averaged 2.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, with an impressive 3.144 expected goals per match, showing they are consistently creating high-quality chances. St Pauli, by contrast, look fragile. They’ve taken just one point from their last three – a 1-1 draw with FC Köln, followed by a 2-0 defeat at Heidenheim and a 2-1 home loss to Mainz. They’ve scored only 0.4 goals per game across their last five and have not kept a single clean sheet in that stretch, while conceding 1.8 per match. Their attacking production is also weak, with just 0.748 expected goals on average, and they’re allowing 1.972 xG, suggesting opponents are regularly getting good sights of goal.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

RB Leipzig
Goals in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 62.0% feels aligned with both form and numbers. Two of Leipzig’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (4-1 vs Leverkusen, 3-1 vs Union Berlin, 3-1 vs Eintracht Frankfurt), underlining their open, attacking style. St Pauli’s last three have been tighter – one over (1-2 vs Mainz) and two under 2.5 (0-2 and 1-1) – but their defensive issues and Leipzig’s averages of 2.6 scored and 3.144 xG per game point towards a higher-scoring contest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

RB Leipzig
Corners in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.78, which fits the recent evidence. Leipzig’s last three matches produced 10, 14 and 10 corners respectively, with RB themselves winning 3, 10 and 6 – typical numbers for a side that attacks with width and volume. St Pauli’s games have brought 14, 12 and 13 corners, as they often spend time defending deep and conceding set-piece opportunities. That balance of a front-foot home side and a pressured away defence supports a corners prediction close to the expected figure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

RB Leipzig
Shots in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total stands at 26.95, matching how both teams have been playing. Leipzig’s last three have seen combined shot counts of 37, 25 and 35, driven by their own tallies of 14, 20 and 19 efforts. St Pauli’s matches were slightly quieter (27, 23 and 24 shots in total), but they still allowed 17 attempts to Mainz and 12 to Heidenheim. Given Leipzig’s strong xG numbers, this shots prediction suggests sustained home pressure and enough volume to justify that attacking output.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = RB Leipzig wins by X goals. Negative = St Pauli wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for RB Leipzig vs St Pauli with expected spread of +1.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for RB Leipzig vs St Pauli
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Leipzig -1.5, reflecting an expected spread of 1.5 goals in favour of the home side. Over the last three, Leipzig’s goal differences are +2, +2 and -3, while St Pauli’s are -1, -2 and 0, underlining the gap in quality and form. With Leipzig heavily favoured in the match-winner probabilities and boasting far better attacking and defensive metrics, a multi-goal home victory fits the expected spread.

Final Prediction

Leipzig’s superior league position, form, and underlying numbers give them a clear edge over a St Pauli team struggling at both ends of the pitch. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Leipzig can turn their expected dominance in shots and territory into goals; if they strike early, St Pauli’s shaky defence could be in for a long afternoon.

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