Bundesliga 2025-2026: St Pauli vs Bayern Munich Prediction - 11 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

St Pauli

Home Team
11%
VS

Bayern Munich

Away Team
77%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 26.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 28 23 4 1 100 27 73 73
2 Dortmund 28 19 7 2 60 28 32 64
3 RB Leipzig 28 16 5 7 55 36 19 53
4 Stuttgart 28 16 5 7 56 38 18 53
5 Hoffenheim 28 15 5 8 55 41 14 50
6 Leverkusen 28 14 7 7 58 39 19 49
7 Ein Frankfurt 28 10 9 9 52 53 -1 39
8 Freiburg 28 10 7 11 41 47 -6 37
9 Mainz 28 8 9 11 35 43 -8 33
10 Union Berlin 28 8 8 12 32 47 -15 32
11 Augsburg 28 9 5 14 34 51 -17 32
12 Hamburg 28 7 10 11 32 41 -9 31
13 M'gladbach 28 7 9 12 35 48 -13 30
14 Werder Bremen 28 7 7 14 31 49 -18 28
15 FC Koln 28 6 9 13 40 49 -9 27
16 St Pauli 28 6 7 15 25 45 -20 25
17 Wolfsburg 28 5 6 17 38 63 -25 21
18 Heidenheim 28 3 7 18 29 63 -34 16

Recent Trends

St Pauli D L L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 0)

Bayern Munich W W D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Dortmund (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

St Pauli

xG (avg) 1.02
xGA (avg) 1.55
Clean Sheets 2

Bayern Munich

xG (avg) 1.96
xGA (avg) 1.90
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Bayern Munich are clear favourites here, with a 77.0% chance of taking all three points away at St Pauli, who sit 16th and fighting to avoid the relegation places, while Bayern are top of the Bundesliga with 73 points from 28 games. The model leans strongly towards an over 2.5 goals prediction (64.0% probability), suggesting an open game despite the gulf in quality.

Match Analysis

St Pauli come into this under heavy pressure near the bottom, with just one point from their last three outings. A 1-1 draw away at Union Berlin was at least a competitive display, but it followed a 1-2 home defeat to Freiburg and a 0-2 loss at M’gladbach. They’ve kept two clean sheets in their last five, yet the trend is worrying: only 25 goals scored all season and a goal difference of -20 underline their struggles. The recent xG numbers echo that: 1.024 expected goals for per match in the last five, but 1.554 expected goals against, suggesting they’re regularly conceding the better chances. Bayern, by contrast, look every inch a champion-in-waiting. They edged Freiburg 3-2 away, demolished Union Berlin 4-0 at home and ground out a 1-1 draw at fellow top-four side Leverkusen. With 100 goals scored and a +73 goal difference, they are overpowering most opponents. Over the last five games, they average 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with 1.964 xG created and 1.904 xG allowed – not perfect defensively, but relentless going forward. That profile, combined with St Pauli’s vulnerability, points strongly towards Bayern controlling territory and chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

St Pauli
Goals in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Goals in last 5 matches
The model backs an over 2.5 prediction at 64.0%, and the recent scorelines support that. Two of St Pauli’s last three matches finished under 2.5 goals (1-1 vs Union Berlin, 0-2 at M’gladbach), with only the 1-2 loss to Freiburg going over. Bayern, however, have seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (3-2 at Freiburg, 4-0 vs Union Berlin) with just the 1-1 at Leverkusen under. Bayern’s 2.4 goals scored and St Pauli’s 1.0 goals conceded per match over the last five, combined with both teams’ xG profiles, tilt this firmly towards over rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

St Pauli
Corners in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.15, which fits the recent pattern for both sides. St Pauli’s last three matches produced modest corner counts from their perspective (2, 3, and 2 taken), though overall totals were sometimes higher due to opponents’ pressure. Bayern, on the other hand, have piled up corners: 8 at Freiburg, 12 against Union Berlin and even in a tougher game at Leverkusen they earned 1 while conceding 4. Given Bayern’s front-foot approach and dominance in wide areas, the corners prediction around nine suggests a match where the champions-elect generate most of the attacking set-piece pressure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

St Pauli
Shots in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With expected shots in this game at 26.76, we should see a busy afternoon for both goalkeepers, especially St Pauli’s. Recently, St Pauli’s matches have seen fairly controlled shot numbers (9, 12 and 8 attempts for them), but their opponents managed 16, 15 and 10, reflecting how often they’re pushed back. Bayern’s last three show their firepower clearly: 21 shots at Freiburg, a huge 31 at home to Union Berlin, and 11 away at Leverkusen. Those figures, combined with Bayern’s high xG, make this shots prediction look very realistic for another high-volume attacking display.

Final Prediction

Bayern Munich’s edge comes from sheer quality and consistency: top of the table, 100 league goals, and far stronger underlying numbers than a St Pauli side stuck in 16th. If Bayern impose their usual tempo and keep St Pauli pinned back, the result should follow the probabilities. The key factor to watch will be how long St Pauli can resist Bayern’s waves of attacks; an early goal for the visitors could quickly turn this into a one-sided contest.

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